Rex Dwyer

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Rex Dwyer

Rex Dwyer

@WineRex

Long/Short mgr, RF Eng, Tech, Global Macro. Protégé of Mr. Pink, O Lord he is wise. Interests: Tech, Wine, Econ History, Car Racing. NO Investment advice.

เข้าร่วม Haziran 2008
1.8K กำลังติดตาม2.8K ผู้ติดตาม
Rex Dwyer
Rex Dwyer@WineRex·
@SantiagoAuFund Right, happens every non-leap year. I want 13 months of 28 days. Add one blank day a year somewhere. 2 blank days on leap years. A blank day would not be a Monday, Tuesday, etc. So the beginning of the month will always be a Monday or Sunday.
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Rex Dwyer
Rex Dwyer@WineRex·
@iancassel BUY when cyclical commodities are low and companies are trading at high PEs or losing money. SELL when companies are riding high and their PEs get very low. Opposite from traditional advice. Know the cycles.
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Ian Cassel
Ian Cassel@iancassel·
Been through a couple commodity cycles where in a matter of 12-months everyone becomes "an expert" and piles into a narrative. Don't use ATH commodity prices (or even higher prices) to justify buying a resource stock. If you can't justify the investment based on commodity levels 25% lower (in some cases 50% lower) you pass. And if the commodity does go 25% lower from here the equities will probably go 50% lower so just live in reality not make believe. All of this is to say be cautious - the real money is made buying resource stocks when the underlying commodity/resource is near lows and then being willing to wait years to be right and make 1000%+ in a year or two when it turns.
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Rex Dwyer
Rex Dwyer@WineRex·
@Unit3Veteran Mendoza was a 3 or 4 star recruit? Sagapolutele is a 5 star. Let's see if Cal can keep cranking out top QBs.
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Big Monkey Head Guy
Big Monkey Head Guy@Unit3Veteran·
Tosh Lupoi and Cal mentioned in post game interview with Mendoza
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Gokul Rajaram
Gokul Rajaram@gokulr·
One of the best companies I've ever invested in is @atlascardhq, AI concierge. Great example of a highly retentive and useful AI consumer product. They dramatically accelerated in 2025, driven by highly efficient acquisition and extremely high MAU / TPV retention, and ended with an absolute banger December. Truly S-tier team and jaw-dropping product velocity. Great work on a great 2025, Team Atlas and @patrickmro. Proud to have led your round and to be on your board.
Gokul Rajaram tweet media
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Rex Dwyer
Rex Dwyer@WineRex·
@zoomyzoomm Because of the expansion of M0. Money creation. First in 2008+ to compensate for Bank reserve ratio boosts, then into the stimulus checks in 2020+ that had no Fed countermeasure, just money in people's pockets, true helicopter money. THAT is what kept us all out of a recession.
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Rex Dwyer
Rex Dwyer@WineRex·
@TonyDeeznut5 @zoomyzoomm Right. Then, everyone ordered goods/services to get ahead of looming tariffs. So the earnings beats are everywhere. But, do you want to be levered long now??? It's a trap!
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Tony Dee
Tony Dee@TonyDeeznut5·
@zoomyzoomm All of the guidance for q2 was scaled back because of tariff uncertainty. Thats why they are beating
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Zoomer 🧢
Zoomer 🧢@zoomyzoomm·
Every. Company. Is. Beating. Earnings. I'm. Not. Kidding. You. Must. Be. Levered. Long. Tech. Equities.
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James Chanos
James Chanos@RealJimChanos·
It looks like $META’s depreciable life on its capital base ($210B at 6/30/25) was 11-12 years, as of the 2Q. If the true economic life on its GPU’s is actually 2-3 years, most of its “profits” are materially overstated.
James Chanos tweet media
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Rex Dwyer
Rex Dwyer@WineRex·
@WOLVofMainSt @wesbury That's it. Helicopter money in 2020 vs propping up mortgages and treasuries, 2009-2010.
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ᴡᴏʟᴠ@WOLVofMainSt·
@wesbury Apples and oranges. During the 2010s monetary expansion remained parked in Federal reserves and therefore M2 levels remained under control. Velocity remained low. Lower rates today, inflation would rise due to excess stimulus handed out during covid. That cash needs to burn 🔥
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Brian Wesbury
Brian Wesbury@wesbury·
The Fed is pulling the wool over everyone’s eyes. Interest rates do not cause, or stop, inflation. If they did, we would have had more inflation 2008-2016 than we did in 2021-2022. The Fed has separated money and rates…they can cut at anytime they want. And they should cut.
Brian Wesbury tweet media
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Benn Eifert 🥷🏴‍☠️
Benn Eifert 🥷🏴‍☠️@bennpeifert·
Cut down to 2:20 because Twitter is still glitching. Rachael Vega singing Creep at the QVR South Bay office
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Rex Dwyer
Rex Dwyer@WineRex·
Remember, the beginning of the word "Crypto" starts with "Cry"
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David Scutt
David Scutt@Scutty·
U.S. Treasury bulls in complete control with 10Y futures taking out key levels. Big volumes have accompanied the move, too. Looks like the highs for yields are in.
David Scutt tweet media
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Bravos Research
Bravos Research@bravosresearch·
This is an ominous sign The unemployment rate has moved above its 36-month MA Such a development has happened 10 prior times since 1952 Every single time, it ended in a recession
Bravos Research tweet media
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Rex Dwyer
Rex Dwyer@WineRex·
@InformedByIan @marketenthsiast There was selling near the 15th of April to get money to pay taxes. People had enormous gains realized in 1999 that needed to be taxed.
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Ian Gutterman
Ian Gutterman@InformedByIan·
@marketenthsiast Yeah that was shortly after the Barron's article. I can't remember the specific sequence after that but, yes, it was technical initially but the Barron's article broke the spell.
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Ian Gutterman
Ian Gutterman@InformedByIan·
Trivia question for those under 40: Do you know what the specific catalyst was for the internet bubble ending in 2000?
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Rex Dwyer
Rex Dwyer@WineRex·
There's more to it than the cash burn article. I believe it was the announcement that Walmart opened a Sandhill Rd, Menlo Park office to create a web property, using their infrastructure. VCs thought that was the end. That, cash burn Barron's article, and the Pets.com IPO flop were nails in the coffin. Of those, the Walmart news was the most devastating. I lived that time as a tech stock analyst at the top tech fund.
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CommSec
CommSec@CommSec·
The Aussie market is easing on Monday morning. The #ASX200 index is down 31pts or 0.4%, weighed heavily by the materials sector. Miners $BHP, $RIO, $FMG & $S32 are falling between 2-4% amid a slump in the price of iron ore.
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Rex Dwyer
Rex Dwyer@WineRex·
Jeff! Longtime, no talk.. Love the monentum... Be prepared for a downturn when Elon's "efficiency" measures start. It happened in the Reagan/Volker era. The Reagan/Volker era ended up causing a budget surplus years later under the Clinton administration. Correct decisions, unfortunately, take years to play out. Demographics matter.
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Jeffrey Skoll
Jeffrey Skoll@jeffskoll·
Congratulations Elon! Now the hard work begins to reset the government on a path of efficiency. I can think of no one better than you to be the "Efficiency Czar" or whatever title you may take in the new Administration, should you wish to take it on. Innovation requires new thinking and while it won't be easy, I'd surmise that there are very few people who would object to a more efficient government, whether in healthcare, defense, transportation or cleantech...or so many other areas where people would benefit. Who would complain about lower taxes and streamlined government services? And you have many friends and allies who would be happy to help. As you always do, I expect you will revert to first principles to establish what problems need to be solved and how best to solve them.
Elon Musk@elonmusk

Huge thank you to everyone who supported this platform and our mutual quest to support freedom of speech!

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