Gustavo Berggren

The US is quickly becoming a global pariah

@AkkadSecretary Americans are not ready for how much the whole World hates them because of this. Consequences will be felt for generations.

In Thailand fuel is being rationed Australia is fucked Europe is ~$11 a gallon Meanwhile in Florida its $3.9 or £0.77 a liter. Americans simply are not feeling the real effects of this war, most you get is a grumble about price whilst the rest of the world dies.

@GrindeOptions We should be reposting this type of lunacy to get the web scrapping algos to lose their digital minds.

Iran will lose war, U.S. will declare victory. Oil will drop to around $60/barrel. The Dow will surpass 50,000. The S&P 500 will surpass 7,500. Interest rates will be cut 3-4 times. The 10 year interest rate will fall. Unemployment will drop below 4%. Republicans will win mid terms.

@JamesHMackay I agree that the political risk is priced in in the sense that the stock price may reflect a, say, 30% chance of a very poor outcome. In fact, the Brazilian investors that I know don't touch Braskem with this geopolitical backdrop in an election year. I have a very small position

@berggrennotes I think that is priced in.

Price action of Braskem $BAK is a head scratcher. Did they hedge all production before the war for creditors? Is all upside promised to creditors? The full price increases should be realized by them despite feedstock costs, with higher volumes, and every week the straight is closed is another week they can lock in better terms into the future. Their April-June pricing should be immense, and if the straight is more or less closed another month, surely Q3 is also a windfall. The potential for deleveraging increases significantly. 2025 was terrible, but I'm very interested to hear the earnings call to hear what they have to say about Q2 and Q3 pricing.

@DrJStrategy You should turn off Fox News.

For the record. Wall Street is not managing risk; it is marketing fear. The consensus coming into 2026 was that, because it is a midterm election year, markets were “due” for a 20% correction based on the usual four‑year cycle models. Then the real stress test arrived: war with Iran, a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and yet oil did not spike to 300 dollars and the S&P 500 did not fall 20%. Despite this, Wall Street continues to push 300‑dollar oil scenarios and portray Trump as a pure tail‑risk, ignoring the facts. My call for S&P 8,000 this year has not changed: a reduction in the terror premium in oil, a global peace dividend, and eventual rate cuts still form the core of the thesis. In the background, US and China is playing the long game, with the US understanding that control over oil flows and keeping that trade in U.S. dollars are core strategic objectives. Yes, the new great game between China and the US continues. Trump, for his part, is not pursuing Neo‑Con style regime change, that’s a domestic affair, but is instead using leverage and hard power to stabilize key chokepoints rather than start new “forever wars,” essentially following the strategy he set out in his national security document last fall.

@investingluc Who in Iran wants to talk to Vance? I don't understand who the media is referencing when they mention talks with Iran.

Iran only wants to talk to Vance…hmm. Guy’s been basically invisible. Was even a rumor he might skip '28 run for “family” reasons...either way, he’s the guy now. Why? This might actually be the off ramp…makes sense for both sides. > war may be close to over. US props JD up as the guy who “delivered” peace...gives him street cred + some nice talking points for '28 run. I can already hear the debates :). > iran does NOT want to keep fighting...so they ask for the dude who's running for president in ~two years + doesn't want war in the middle east. Off‑ramp soon feels more likely than not here.

@RealPeterLinder This volatility will stop producers from pursuing adding production. More governmental intervention -> more scarcity. People are bailing out right before the fireworks. $OBE $MTDR $SM $MGY

This is a time to buy oil stocks, not sell them. Was is still around $90!

@calvinfroedge @LauraLoomer Top comment of the year

@LauraLoomer You can't just kill every baby you see, Larry

Is there anything worse than a crying baby on a plane? I wish parents would control their children. It’s so disruptive. I refuse to believe a baby cries for 10 hours. At some point this is just bad parenting, right?

@lasse108 Adding here.

I am genuinely sorry

@Peter_Lukacs_R Australian Coal is to Asia what Vegemite is to Australia. Your thesis is intact.

Australia imports ~70–80% of its diesel. Most of that fuel is refined in Asia using primarily Middle Eastern crude oil. Is this killing my Australian coal stocks idea?

Getting very bullish #coal here. Selling some of $MGY for $WHC.AX.

@AndreasSteno Too much money in selling LNG to Europe for the US. That is the only reason why I don't think they'd do it. In 2022 that industry made anywhere between 60-80B USD. They're looking at even more money now.

@Peter_Lukacs_R Hey Lukacs, I have some Brazilian friends that work with asset management. They are very worried about Petrobras not being able to pass along price increases to the end consumer. This has been done in the past by the same government in power now. Not unlikely to happen.

Short update from Brazil trip: - Senate likely to be conservative dominated (as is in house) - 50/50 chance for Lula in elections - $PBR dividends needed for Lula given fiscal strain - Recent scandals around Master Bank hurt Lula - country shifting to more conservative - $PBR down on Bolsonaro son endorsement was because the other conservative politicians had better chances so endorsement meant Lula more chance (so Lula = bad for $PBR narrative alive) In short: relative good times ahead for investors

@calvinfroedge Even if there is some political interference, which would be bearish short term, I don't think it's such a big deal. CF industries for example exports between 55-60% of its fertilizers.

Why do you think the fert company insiders are selling with prices surging and food shortages looming? Because they know what's coming Political interference

@theallinpod You lost a listener today.

EARLY DROP FOR A BIG EPISODE! 🚨 US Under Secretary of War Emil Michael joins to break down the two biggest topics: the Iran War and Anthropic vs the Pentagon -- War with Iran: The Bigger Picture -- USA's new approach to warfare -- Pentagon vs Anthropic: How it went down -- Valuing Anthropic after the Pentagon fallout -- State of the US defense tech market ++ MUCH more @USWREMichael (0:00) The Besties welcome Under Secretary of War Emil Michael (2:30) US war with Iran: Bigger picture and why now? (13:16) Trump's new approach to warfare, AI, drones, rules of engagement (28:39) Israel's role in the conflict, relationship with the US, Iron Beam (37:24) Oil prices, Trump's maritime insurance play (41:19) Pentagon vs Anthropic: Why Anthropic was labeled a supply-chain risk (1:02:03) How to value Anthropic after its supply chain risk designation (1:11:14) State of the US defense supply chain, the defense tech industry, DARPA, and China's military

@BidBird10 Let's see how it closes. Some longer wicks on the bottom would be nice.

@BidBird10 100% agreed. It's really understandable that people are selling here. But it looks constructive imo. The U.UN chart touched the 38.2% retracement and buyers showed up with volume. URNM tests the last high and same thing. As of now, it looks like a snap shake out.

Sold my $URNJ-position this morning (Was 8.8% of my PF). SPUT was able to buy 3.6 million pounds in rapid succession without causing nothing but a short-lived spike in prices that was caused by the front-running traders. The argument that the spot market is thin does not hold water. It is clear that the available supply can easily answer to the artificial short term demand, that is created by financial players. Combining the state of the spot market with the fact that major uranium equities like DNN, NXE & UEC are already pricing in $120-$150 uranium even with adequate short-term supply available is unsettling to me. My long-term view about uranium remains unchanged, but short-term ish, I see a large correction as a major risk and therefore I’m gonna reduce my exposure here. We can of course continue to go higher, given how much coverage critical minerals are currently getting in the press and how irrational the small and illiquid uranium equity space can be, but for me, better R/R opportunities are now elsewhere.

@leggett_john @uraniuminsider 3-5 years from now is tomorrow for utilities. Are governments going to start stockpiling as well? Starting to feel like the musical chairs moment @JohnPolomny has been talking about

Rare public interview w UxC President Jonathan Hinze #Uranium Price Reporter Co., on 🇨🇦Bloomberg. #Nuclear CC: @uraniuminsider