Capsey

1.8K posts

Capsey

Capsey

@capseyeth

Analysis @Cryptonary

เข้าร่วม Mart 2021
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Capsey
Capsey@capseyeth·
I must say, this is hard for me to write, but I have sold the majority of my Crypto. Currently 30% crypto and 70% reddies. Looking to unload the majority of that 30% into a $45k-47k Bitcoin (if we're lucky). I will then be Shorting. I will explain my change in sentiment below.
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Capsey
Capsey@capseyeth·
“They better get serious soon” suggests to me that the Iranians aren’t playing ball with Trump. Think Trump and the US are increasingly looking like the losers. The Iranians just need to keep the Strait closed, and survive.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

BREAKING: President Trump says Iranian negotiators are "begging the US to make a deal" while they "publicly state that they are only looking at our proposal." "They better get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is no turning back, and it won't be pretty," Trump says.

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David
David@yourealazyfvck·
If you’re in Dubai and you’re free on Wednesday nights we run a 5/6 a side football (soccer game) every week at 8pm Pretty competitive so come correct Hit me for details
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Capsey
Capsey@capseyeth·
Think in the coming months, this is the trade for a nice multiple: betting on the Fed to cut once or twice in 2026. Current odds are: - 27% (1 cut) - 19% (2 cuts) Would give you a 4-5x depending on which hits. Reasoning: The Fed likely remains on hold whilst inflation is elevated due to higher oil prices, but they won't hike because of this - but they will remain on hold throughout Q2. But, economic growth will be impacted by higher inflation and the Fed remaining on hold for longer. Therefore, I expect the Fed will need to cut in Q4 26 to offset the negative impacts to the labour market and the economy that have been caused/exacerbated further by the conflict in the Middle East. Now, as mentioned, I don't expect a cut in Q2, or even probably Q3. And with much higher inflation prints likely to come in Q2, I think the Polymarket odds of cuts will come down (so you'll get even better prices/odds). Therefore, my plan is to DCA into buying 1 cut and 2 cuts for 2026 over the next 1-2 months, with those cuts expected to come in Q4 26. That's the trade.
Capsey tweet media
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Capsey
Capsey@capseyeth·
Zoomed in, $BTC looks sort of diabolical here. - same rising wedge pattern as before (downside bias). - RSI uptrend line broken and rejected into retest. - $71k-$72k unable to be reclaimed. - negative Coinbase Premium. Could go on. And in a time where Yields have broken out, market liquidity is falling and financial conditions are tightening. Think $55k-$63k is for long-term bidding though.
Capsey tweet media
Capsey@capseyeth

I'm in new $BTC Shorts here at just shy of $71k, with Stop at $74,250. Not sure I'm a believer of this Trump tweet and it's a ploy to buy time, plus chart doesn't look good - uptrend line broken. Target $65k.

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Capsey
Capsey@capseyeth·
@cryptonary Yep, financial conditions are now at their tightest since 2022. Great chart from CrossBorder on this.
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Cryptonary
Cryptonary@cryptonary·
Gold is down 16% since the war started. BTC is up 8%. The macro says sell everything. Financial conditions haven't tightened this fast since 2022. A month ago, markets priced four rate cuts this year. Now there's a 78% chance of zero. And yet BTC won't break. One of two things is true: Either BTC is the last domino and it's about to catch down to the $55-65K zone. Or the bond market is about to force the Fed's hand. The 30-year yield hit 4.96% today. Last time it crossed 5%, in April 2025, Trump reversed policy within 48 hours. We're positioned for the first. Risk off. But the second satisfies faster than most people are prepared for.
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Capsey
Capsey@capseyeth·
@astekz I'm of a similar view - think we need a full de escalation (a deal) for more upside to come for risk assets. Which I'm not sure is likely in the immediate term. Think this has more bumps along the road rather than out-right de escalation. I'm Short, in the same $BTC trade.
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Astekz
Astekz@astekz·
I might be a bit early here but i'm betting after a squeeze today we run it right back down
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Capsey
Capsey@capseyeth·
@TXMCtrades 100% completely agree. Iranians now know Trumps pain point and it doesn't take them a lot to inflict this pain.
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𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂
𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂@TXMCtrades·
The latest Trump ultimatum reeks of desperation. He has put himself in a box. Either keep your word and become a war criminal or bluff and kill any remaining credibility. Pure ego to put himself in this spot.
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Capsey
Capsey@capseyeth·
@Rob_Jones19 I think this is just Trump buying time to get more marines and ships in the region. Don't think I'm a believer. And yep, Iranians now know his pain point (the markets), and I don't think they need a lot to inflict this i.e., keep Strait closed = higher oil, higher Yields.
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Rob
Rob@Rob_Jones19·
@capseyeth They were already denied by Iran 😂. It's mental.... It's almost like he just expected everyone to roll over.
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Capsey
Capsey@capseyeth·
I think Trump wants to de escalate but to save face - my feeling is that he's done this on his own, and I'm not even sure how substantive these talks are and whether they even took place. I don't think I believe it, and now the Iranians know Trumps pain points i.e. the markets. And there's still a tonne of questions: - Are the Israelis onboard with this? - Do more strikes happen, just not on energy infrastructure? - Do the Iranians confirm these talks? - The Iranians now know where and how to pressure Trump. - Is this Trump just buying more time? I'm not a buyer of this rally in risk, and if anything, see it as a Shorting opportunity. I don't think I'm a believer here.
Open Source Intel@Osint613

Trump: I AM PLEASE TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WITCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP

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Capsey
Capsey@capseyeth·
I'm in new $BTC Shorts here at just shy of $71k, with Stop at $74,250. Not sure I'm a believer of this Trump tweet and it's a ploy to buy time, plus chart doesn't look good - uptrend line broken. Target $65k.
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Capsey
Capsey@capseyeth·
$BTC did have the minerals to get to $74k. I think it can go a bit more here but don't think it's worth chasing if you missed. I'm still in the camp that we'll get new bear market lows, and would be very surprised if we didn't - so for now, just being patient.
Capsey@capseyeth

$BTC showing some relative strength here. - OI low. - Funding very negative. - Positive Spot CVD Think this has the minerals to push to $74k-$78k, with $72k being the key level. I'd still absolutely be a seller at $74k-$78k. View remains that we see $50k-$60k in Q2 26.

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Capsey
Capsey@capseyeth·
@CavanXy aren't in* I agree, I think we get there. Most BTC bear markets have seen price spend time below the Production Cost (currently $60k, but trending lower). I think low $60k's is also a buy though, with size going in in the $50k's.
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Cav
Cav@CavanXy·
We are yet to see the cycle-top buyers capitulate their coins, which is historically a good indication that the cyclical lows are in. It does look like we have the macro recipe for it in the coming month or two. If presented, I think buying a 5-handle bitcoin in the next month or two will likely be the setup of the year. Two traits needed for the coming month/two: First, patience Second, balls
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Capsey
Capsey@capseyeth·
Think these get squeezes today. = price up!
Capsey tweet media
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Capsey
Capsey@capseyeth·
$BTC showing some relative strength here. - OI low. - Funding very negative. - Positive Spot CVD Think this has the minerals to push to $74k-$78k, with $72k being the key level. I'd still absolutely be a seller at $74k-$78k. View remains that we see $50k-$60k in Q2 26.
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