Count Draghula

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Count Draghula

Count Draghula

@countdraghula

The business cycle is dead.

เข้าร่วม Aralık 2021
555 กำลังติดตาม23.3K ผู้ติดตาม
ทวีตที่ปักหมุด
Count Draghula
Count Draghula@countdraghula·
MUTUALLY ASSURED ECONOMIC DESTRUCTION Large-scale tariffs are the "big red button" that closes the US capital account off to the world. The US has had to mirror China's closed capital account to protect itself from a system so good at giving it what free markets want. 1/
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DCP
DCP@Dcpcooks·
My wife’i s not ready for the loss of a cibling at 72 Very happy she is present I gotta take a trip
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Count Draghula
Count Draghula@countdraghula·
I've read 50 tweets in the last hour posing as military analysis that say this (without actually saying it): "Being the defending force is less risky and easier than being the attacking force" Like no shit, yet they spend thousands of words trying to explain it
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T2W@haikouhainan·
@briangobosox @countdraghula @Man1zzsh China has its own large domestic market can trade with India and asean countries and Russia. No indispensable need for Europe
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Brian McCarthy
Brian McCarthy@briangobosox·
If Iran won’t make a reasonable deal, this is the next play. Suck it up and blockade the strait to all traffic. Seize all Iranian accounts and cut them off from hard currency. Then continue to degrade their offensive capabilities. At some point you’ll begin to move friendly traffic through the gulf. Is this economically painful for the west? Of course. Is it manageable? Of course. There is some set of unreasonable Iranian demands against which this becomes the preferable option. And once Iran forces Trump into that position, there is no good ending for them.
Robin Brooks@robin_j_brooks

Iran is a gas station masquerading as an Islamic Republic. We should shut it down with an embargo. It’s absurd Iranian oil is flowing but other oil out of the Gulf is blockaded. Big thanks to ⁦@cherykang⁩ and @martinsoong for having me on @cnbc… cnbc.com/video/2026/03/…

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Brian McCarthy
Brian McCarthy@briangobosox·
@Man1zzsh China not only needs oil, it needs the European and Asian economies that are absorbing its trade surplus to have access too, otherwise they’re economies collapse. If Iran overplays its hand here they lose China’s support as well.
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Count Draghula
Count Draghula@countdraghula·
Nice to hear from you guys! It's in China's best interests to end it without the US controlling the Strait completely. It's also in their best interest to not see their export markets implode.
Caixin Global@caixin

Beijing is urging peace talks in the Middle East. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Tuesday, calling for an immediate start to negotiations and an end to hostilities caixinglobal.com/2026-03-24/chi…

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Count Draghula
Count Draghula@countdraghula·
If the US has the least sensitivity to the oil shock its opposite would be China. Domestic and external demand destruction give a double whammy. People ignoring because of large reserves which clearly aren't big enough if they're turning things off already
Mr. VIX@yieldsearcher

Imagine being an oil-importing nation whose input costs rose 50% while export production volumes fell 20% in high fixed cost, capital intensive industries. What does that do to the nation’s industrial profits, pvt sector financing needs, and BoP (USD accumulation)?

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Count Draghula
Count Draghula@countdraghula·
@foxlow @glengarryrd Voter appetite for volatility is zero because of this, so we get the governments we get who are terrified to charge anything and will always trade the future for the present
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James Falkiner
James Falkiner@foxlow·
@countdraghula @glengarryrd Now, where can we find lots of debt in the private sector in Australia? Why, the residential mortgage market of course. Rising rates, over-geared H/H balance sheet, rising chance of government intervention. What could possibly go wrong?
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Count Draghula
Count Draghula@countdraghula·
@glengarryrd But they are a tiny subset of people that benefit from treasury not intervening. What is the governments job in this situation
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Artie Lippo
Artie Lippo@glengarryrd·
@countdraghula when somebody is pissing on me and telling me it's raining staying dry is only half the battle.
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Count Draghula
Count Draghula@countdraghula·
@glengarryrd Ok so I've been in this argument with oil traders. Treasury selling oil futures pisses them off no end,mostly because they want to make money from it going up.
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Count Draghula
Count Draghula@countdraghula·
@glengarryrd It's not about cope, it's about understanding the realities of trading when the government is this important. I'm just saying it hasn't changed when in crisis or volatile periods. You can shout at the rain or just get an umbrella
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Artie Lippo
Artie Lippo@glengarryrd·
@countdraghula so if he cuts tariffs to 5% tomorrow via a tweet and five minutes before he tweets it out a bunch of big orders go through, in your mind that is him "massaging" markets understanding how they can get one-way? That sounds like cope to me.
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Count Draghula
Count Draghula@countdraghula·
@sidereal111 Is this not a genuine policy response to real world events? Side profiting is just a red herring
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Count Draghula
Count Draghula@countdraghula·
It has been, you just haven't been around long enough Getting toweled in 2016 because the Chinese abandoned their plans to rebalance the economy all of a sudden Getting toweled in COVID because you thought they would be dumb enough to shut everything down Don't even talk about the constant Friday speculation about which bank would be and would not be saved that weekend for like 2 years during the GFC
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sidereal 🍀
sidereal 🍀@sidereal111·
@countdraghula no the president tweeting bullshit every week and all his buddies loading up 5 minutes before he hits send is quite a bit different than anything we've seen previously
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Count Draghula
Count Draghula@countdraghula·
There is probably an element of that but it isn't the driving reason. He needs to buy time and understands how one way markets can get. In the other cases they learned the lesson the hard way. The market would've ended the whole excursion in the first week if the weren't massaged (manipulated)
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Artie Lippo
Artie Lippo@glengarryrd·
@countdraghula both are bad but not close to the same. This guy is literally telling people he's about to tweet out some crazy shit. "let me know when your tickets are in so i can blast it out."
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Count Draghula
Count Draghula@countdraghula·
@foxlow @glengarryrd Yes, and to add the power of the modern government is enabled by the amount of debt outstanding in the private sector. If there were less debt, we wouldn't care about them nearly as much.
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James Falkiner
James Falkiner@foxlow·
@countdraghula @glengarryrd I remember reading Paulson’s book, Whatever it takes, and I had to put it down. It reminded me of what a bun fight that whole episode was and how the inner circle knew what was about to happen. That first failure on TARP was a shocker. Pelosi at her most destructive.
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Count Draghula
Count Draghula@countdraghula·
@glengarryrd Both other decisions were discretionary as well. To the unilateral claim COVID was unilateral and GFC technically wasn't but congress moves as a herd. Remember they failed to pass it the first time and then suddenly changed their minds when the market tanked
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Count Draghula
Count Draghula@countdraghula·
Has a floor been set in equities... ...or has the previous floor been removed with the trigger pull of the introduction of a (real or not) off-ramp?
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@Dcpcooks @toiletkingcap @_Billdozer_ @sinnerbkk @haikouhainan @briangobosox @Man1zzsh @foxlow