crowdturtle 🐢

I put together a thread of bottom signals in April of this year for stocks. Today (Nov 2 2025) I’m going to start putting together a list of top indicators bc things look very stretched and abnormal.

Life pro tip. Not enough people talk about this. The secret to having a "fulfilling" life is doing new things. Radically doing new things. Consistently. Every day. New activities, people, goals, even something as simple as trying new foods. Life feels longer when you're a kid because every day is packed with almost infinite amount of new learning. As you get older, you've already acclimated to your environment, the new inputs stop, so your perception of time speeds up drastically. You fall into routine, which is a time accelerant. If you want to feel like you have a long infinite lifespan, like you did as a child, you MUST be having new experiences, which slows time down.

@HustleBitch_ Wow. Amazing job with the space tbh

🚨 SHE HAPPILY PAYS $3,175 A MONTH FOR A 350 SQ FT APARTMENT IN NYC — AND CALLS IT A “DEAL” — WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE INSIDE A woman just showed her NYC apartment… and you can basically see the entire place the second you walk in. Only ONE real window. No washer or dryer. Barely any storage. They had to add their own kitchen island… build extra storage… and stack shoes wherever they fit just to make it livable. She says she uses artificial lighting just to make it feel brighter… and hauls laundry down the street every week. And somehow… this is considered a “deal.” She says renovated units in the same building go for over $4,000/month. The part that’s blowing people’s minds? She says she loves it… and doesn’t want to leave. At what point does “living in New York” stop being the dream… and start feeling like you’re paying luxury prices to live in a box?

Pro Tip: If you want things to move faster, give yourself less time. Parkinson's Law states that says work expands to fill the time allotted to it. If you give yourself two weeks to finish something, it'll take two weeks. If you give yourself two hours, it’ll take two hours.

Altman admitted that transformer models have hit the wall. Most improvements in the last 9 months are attributable more to the tooling around the model rather than the models themselves. In other words, this technology is rapidly maturing with no signs of another leap.

if you clean for 15 minutes when you get home and do your laundry throughout the week…you can spend your days off doing whatever…they don’t want you to know this one simple life hack

Software is at 4.8x EV/NTM revenue. That is below the 2018–2019 average of 7.4x, when most of these companies were unprofitable and AI was a conference buzzword. The fashionable explanation is that AI agents will do everyone's job, and if there are no employees there are no seats to license. Perhaps. But it is also true that the pandemic pulled forward years of software adoption, juiced revenue growth to 30%+, and inflated multiples to 16x. Growth has since decelerated. Interest rates quadrupled. The most boring possible explanation is that the bubble deflated. The AI narrative is convenient because it gives the multiples compression a story. Valuation risk coming home to roost after a three-year melt-up is less interesting to write about. Both are probably true.

what @pmarca is saying is actually so obviously true: think less, do more. if you possess some passable level of IQ, you’re already thinking enough and that’s sufficient world is run by doers, not thinkers. do more stuff.

My therapist once told me: “Get good at bouncing back. A rough conversation, a bad day, a skipped workout, a choice you regret, none of it has to ruin the rest of your week. You can reset whenever you decide to. You can't change what happened, but you can choose how long you hold onto it”.

ANTHROPIC JUST TURNED YOUR PHONE INTO A REMOTE CONTROL FOR AN AI WORKER ON YOUR COMPUTER. You can text Claude from your phone and it will handle desktop tasks, search files, check Slack, and come back with the work done.

@paulcerro the growth vector is in place. this is great momentum. looking forward to your note. $WW

I knew subs were going to be good with the Wegovy pill launch, but a 54% jump in just one quarter was pleasantly surprising 2026 for clinical is looking to be a banger of a year should the trend continue $WW

what

@basilialukos Nope

@crowdturtle But is it really a cost issue?

Good $adbe insight. New leader will clean up

Went through $adbe numbers. Theres not just topline growth, there’s multiple segments of accelerating growth under the hood. I may tweet it up. But the upside here isn’t not being disrupted by AI, it’s that acceleration hitting the topline via new biz vectors

i think this is pretty clear by now: "agentic AI has hit an inflection point" these systems are now getting much better at completing longer engineering tasks without human intervention. many people still underestimate the "reasoning" breakthrough because of that, i believe we have crossed an important threshold, and now the curve is rising fast

My thoughts on $ADBE. Although Adobe shares fell -7.8% after earnings, the quarter itself was not as weak as the market reaction suggests. In my view, the decline was largely related to the CEO transition, which introduced uncertainty for investors. One point worth noting is the weak net new ARR addition (-55% YoY). This appears to be linked to Adobe’s freemium pricing strategy, particularly the free adoption of Express and Firefly, which creates near-term ARR pressure. The freemium model delays revenue conversion, since users adopt the products for free first and convert later to paid subscriptions. At the same time, it expands the MAU base, which may support monetization over the longer term. Another negative factor is Adobe Stock, which represents less than 10% of total revenue, but is declining faster than expected. Net margin also declined slightly (-2.2 percentage points YoY) due to increased investments in AI infrastructure. Beyond these issues, the quarter contained several positive elements. The stock is now -63% from its all-time high, reflecting market expectations that AI competition could significantly pressure Adobe’s business model. However, current revenue growth trends do not yet support that narrative. In fact, revenue growth has been gradually accelerating from +9.2% in Q1 2023. Revenue growth reached +12% YoY, beating guidance by 1.6%, which was the largest beat in the past two years. If Adobe delivers a similar beat next quarter, growth could reach around +12.1%. Gross margin increased to 89.6%, while operating and free cash flow margins also improved. Growth in RPO and billings accelerated and outpaced revenue growth, which is a positive signal and does not suggest an imminent business slowdown. Firefly ARR exceeded $250M, which is around 1% of total ARR, but growth is very strong at +75% QoQ, with generative credit usage up +45% QoQ. The user base also continues to expand rapidly, with 80M creative freemium MAU (+50% YoY). Adobe is also actively repurchasing shares, and the share count declined by 5.7% YoY. That said, the rapid development of AI remains a real risk for Adobe’s business. Investors should closely monitor how effective the freemium strategy proves to be over the long term, as well as the growth trajectory of Firefly ARR, which for now remains a relatively small part of total ARR.

Fascinated by $adbe here. Someone talk me out of it

@accrued_int @MnkeDaniel @GeminiApp Doesn’t it increase overall tam

@MnkeDaniel the fact that $ADBE is only targeting professionals is the problem. Gemini and other LLMs being "good enough" SHRINKS Adobe's TAM. It will be difficult for Adobe to get revenue growth above +10% if they cannot expand beyond hardcore professionals. So I think you are explaining why adobe's multiple is compressing. Which I agree.

Thoughts on $ADBE: The problem with Adobe is that good results are not good enough. Either $ADBE proves that it is an AI beneficiary, or the market will keep treating it like a dead business. There's an argument to make that $ADBE is proving its AI resilience for years now. Since ChatGPT came out: - Revenue CAGR has been 11% - EBIT CAGR: 15% - Margins went from 33% to 38% However, this is business as usual; it's not enough to prove AI is benefiting Adobe in the future (in the market's view). The CEO stepping down isn't great timing either. Shantanu Narayen hasn't been a vital part of the thesis in my opinion, but he did a great job leading the SaaS pivot a bit more than a decade ago. Since another such shift could be following soon, he would've been a good person to lead it. Yet Adobe's management team is capable, and I don't see any reason to doubt them. $ADBE will take patience.

The people who win big over the next decade won't be the smartest. AI is making knowledge cheap. The new moat is behaviour. The winners will master 4 traits: • Consistency • Curiosity • Speed • Agency Here's one tip for each that has helped me (as a 25 y/o 8-fig founder): 1. Consistency: Create a daily non-negotiables checklist (the high-leverage habits that create your "minimum viable day"). Don't go to sleep until everything is ticked off. 2. Curiosity: Time block 30 minutes a day to experimenting with new tech. Don't over-plan, just experiment and see what you can do. Do this every day without fail. 3. Speed: Reduce the lag time between ideas and implementation. Tip: Spend 5 minutes breaking down each idea into a series of mini-steps. This will make big tasks more manageable and harder to procrastinate. 4. Agency: This is more of a mindset. High agency is the refusal to believe you’re powerless. That you can find a way to solve any issue. There is no cheap hack for this. But by working on the 3 points above, you will begin to develop confidence in yourself and your abilities. I believe in you. This is your year.

Hmmm #coal #coaltwitter $amr $nrp $btu