ทวีตที่ปักหมุด
Don’t listen to people who think they know what the market will do next. Instead, listen to people who say “I have no idea what the market will do next, but here’s a good plan to follow regardless of what happens.”
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TraderJames
7.1K posts
TraderJames
@cyclonehawk
Great wife. Awesome kids. Passion for family, golf, and investing. Swing Trader (days/weeks/months). Bayes’ Theorem. Probabilities. Fractals. Vix. GO CYCLONES!
เข้าร่วม Şubat 2015
454 กำลังติดตาม359 ผู้ติดตาม
Closing out most of my shorts today. With $VIX above 30 this market is likely to swing violently both ways. Best to wait and find the next A+ entry. $QQQ around $550 would be a spot one could hope for some leveling out and reversal. If that doesn’t hold then it gets really ugly.
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Knockin on the door of 30. $Vix
GIF
TraderJames@cyclonehawk
$Vix closed at 27 , all key levels and MAs have been breached. 1 of 2 things happens next: 1) $Vix continues to chop in the 20s, we have big up and down swings in equities, retake key levels and find solid footing for a recovery. 2) $Vix goes above 30, $SPY and $QQQ 🤮🤮🤮
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In simple terms: Marko's saying:
“If the world hits another big economic shock, long-term U.S. bonds will become a safe bet again - $TLT would likely rise significantly."
Marko Kolanovic@markoinny
Inflation is now front and center, but hypothetically, if this turns out to be a global paralysis like COVID (e.g. some economies just stop, run out of energy) , could it be that long term rates drop as in covid and long bond is the hedge $TLT.
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$Vix closed at 27 , all key levels and MAs have been breached. 1 of 2 things happens next:
1) $Vix continues to chop in the 20s, we have big up and down swings in equities, retake key levels and find solid footing for a recovery.
2) $Vix goes above 30, $SPY and $QQQ 🤮🤮🤮
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The market has given you plenty of opportunities to get out over the last month. Most of those are now gone. $SPY $QQQ
TraderJames@cyclonehawk
If the market gives you another opportunity to get out. You take it. $QQQ $SPY $VIX
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Crucial level here in equities. Need to hold or we go much lower. Good luck everyone. $SPY $QQQ
TraderJames@cyclonehawk
I’ve been warning…..not many safe options right now besides cash, the dollar ($UUP), and commodities. Protect your hard earned money. $QQQ 🔴 $SPY 🔴 $IBIT 🔴 $GLD 🔴 $TLT 🔴
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@PauloMacro TACOing at $Vix of 25 vs. $Vix at 50 is a whole different ball game.
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Equity bros just need their Tom Hanks Has Covid moment.
The only thing investors are afraid of is not being long enough when Trump "Tacos"
And that is extremely fricking unstable.
Ben Carlson@awealthofcs
On 4/9 last year the S&P 500 was up 9.5% in a single day on the Liberation Day TACO I'm convinced that one day is the only reason markets haven't gone down more on the war/oil crisis Everyone who wants to be bearish is terrified of that scenario
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@awealthofcs Possible. But a lot of differences then vs now. That was a 1-issue game, this is multifaceted and much more complicated. Also, the days leading up to 4/9 $Vix was in the 50s and 60s, then the 4/9 big hammer down to the 30s. $Vix today is still in the choppy 20s, nothing crazy.
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On 4/9 last year the S&P 500 was up 9.5% in a single day on the Liberation Day TACO
I'm convinced that one day is the only reason markets haven't gone down more on the war/oil crisis
Everyone who wants to be bearish is terrified of that scenario
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@gfc4 No. Just like a college degree, 4+ years of pain and lessons is the only way to learn and reap big rewards for the rest of your life. Few make it through the education phase.
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Has anyone ever gotten really wealthy trading their own account without experiencing some brutal drawdowns?
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@RealJGBanks Good stuff. Exactly what I’m watching. Along with Vix flush, and certain RSI levels
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The best buying opportunities of the last 10 years all came from the same spot:
The retest of the previous bull market high.
2020
2022
2025
Now it’s at 611
Don’t believe me just look at the Weekly $SPY
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@StockSavvyShay It’s embarrassing @CNBC has this guy on 3 times a week just to have the same conclusion (bullish) to different scenarios, no matter the scenario. His $GRNY is down how much this year?
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Tom Lee maintains his S&P 500 target of 7,700 and remains bullish despite elevated macro uncertainty.
He argues markets bottom early in conflicts as fear gets priced in quickly and positioning is already de-risked before clarity arrives.
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Bonds are not a safe haven (yet), I repeat, bonds are not a safe haven (yet). Bonds are actually crashing harder today than equities. $QQQ $SPY $TLT.
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I’ve been warning…..not many safe options right now besides cash, the dollar ($UUP), and commodities. Protect your hard earned money.
$QQQ 🔴
$SPY 🔴
$IBIT 🔴
$GLD 🔴
$TLT 🔴
GIF
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@LanceRoberts There are many moving averages that “work” and only take minutes each Friday to glance at. 20-week, 40-week, 52-week, just pick one and avoid the big losses. Thanks for the reminder Lance.
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Just remember...it is FAR BETTER to MISS the 10-WORST DAYS in the market than worrying about the 10-BEST DAYS.
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Preserving your hard earned dollars is what matters most to your long term returns. Most spend 40 hours a week earning dollars yet won’t spend 5 minutes each Friday preserving it. $SPY $QQQ
Lance Roberts@LanceRoberts
Just remember...it is FAR BETTER to MISS the 10-WORST DAYS in the market than worrying about the 10-BEST DAYS.
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If the market gives you another opportunity to get out. You take it. $QQQ $SPY $VIX
GIF
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$WTI spiked 20% at the open, equities crashed 2%, Vix now above 30 and in the crash bucket. March will be very volatile up and down from here with the overall trend down. Be safe with your hard earned dollars. $QQQ $SPY
TraderJames@cyclonehawk
$QQQ 🔴 $SPY 🔴 $IBIT 🔴 $GLD 🟢 $TLT 🟢
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In-N-Out makes the best fast food hamburger in the world. Anyone who disagrees is wrong and should feel bad.
ᶠᵃⁿ In-N-Out Burgers@innoutburger_
BEST BURGER IN THE COUNTRY
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