CrumbCollector

@nickgiva1 @claudeai x.com/i/status/20282…

I am tempted to just let it keep on trying, as it's not urgent in slightest. Or are you saying that you know there is NO way it can be done and that the only way is to convert to jpg? If that is so, how come it does not already know that? Seems weird. But just as weird that no one has tried before to upload a pdf and it does not already know the way, in whatever format. Is it not supposed to learn from what it has done before for whomever?

Having fun automating everything with @claudeai Cowork. It can do the most complex things quite well, although I have to correct many faults, which themselves seem to be very simple to a human. It does not seem to repeat the errors once you have pointed them out, which is great. You will never guess where it's hung up though: it's finding it almost impossible to upload a simple .pdf file to Google Drive. It tried a ton of ways for an hour and now has run out of tokens. How can such a simple thing be a problem, when I can do it in a second myself? Has really no one had it upload a .pdf file to Drive?? I find that funny/weird.

I would like to offer to pay the salaries of TSA personnel during this funding impasse that is negatively affecting the lives of so many Americans at airports throughout the country

Why Swap Spreads represent The Cost of Leverage When the US Government, or any other entity, borrows fixed rate debt, the rate it pays to the market consists of 2 component parts 1/13

@iV_trader Kudos for owning it

So far a miss..Lets see what happens by end of day. Sorry guys

False This is a lie Read the bill—especially the text beginning at line 22 of page 12

The Afroman Trial. -Cops raid Afromans house for bullshit reasons. -Steal money, break his door, fuck his house up. -No criminality found whatsoever, no charges at all pressed on Afroman. -Afroman spends the next 3 years making songs that make fun of all the officers involved by name, even using footage of the raid from his own CCTV cameras. -Songs had titles like "Randy Walters is a son of a bitch" and "Lick Em Low Lisa" accusing one of the officers of being a lesbian and sleeping with the other officers wives. -During the raid one officer looked like he was about to eat some lemon pound cake sitting on Afromans counter, Afroman made a whole album calling the officer fat. -The cops get mad and file a lawsuit for defamation. -Afroman turns up to court in a whole American flag suit. -Officers performatively mald and cry while listening to the songs really trying to oversell how badly the songs upset them. -One officer was suing because Afroman made a whole song about him saying he was fucking the officers wife. When the officer was asked if Afroman was really fucking his wife, he said "I don't know". Nuking his own case and establishing that there is a non-zero chance that Afroman might actually be fucking his wife. -As his only witness for the trial, Afroman brought a deputies EX FUCKING WIFE. -The jury ruled completely in favour of Afroman. This entire thing has been a great win for free speech and absolutely fucking hilarious.

@JavierBlas Why 5 years? raw materials? labor?

Qatar state-owned LNG giant QatarEnergy has published a statement detailing the overnight damage, providing more granularity (particularly around the damage of the GTL plant).

Lots of chatter in the oil market about whether a Saudi refinery in the Red Sea was attacked or not. One thing, however, appears clear: crude loadings at Yanbu and Al Muajjiz continue as normal, with 4 tankers getting their oil right now via the Hormuz bypass pipeline.

@yieldsearcher 💯

Folks may see chaos and pessimism around Trump’s midterm, but the flipside is that this is a geopolitical masterpiece that gives the US unprecedented leverage as the biggest energy producer, the sole military who can unclog the SoH, and in control of the increasingly scarce USD.

@Dcpcooks @HyperbolicDisco @CowboyJunkies So cool!

I need to give mi amigo @HyperbolicDisco a massive shout out. I received a very generous gift from him. He noticed I liked the @CowboyJunkies Went and found a fantastic vinyl and had it signed by Mike with the absolutely best message ever “To Don, I wish you good fortune in the STIR wars to come” It’s a glorious and fantastic album. Truly amazing music and talent A must listen

@VolSignals that was fantastic

Skew dropping before implied volatility falls is NOT a good sign for the bulls. Here's why... youtu.be/WYWVPNxbfDc

@Alpha_Ex_LLC Very cool

This is a fascinating time to study market prices. The table below shows the "single stock VIX" (VIXEQ) at Friday's close and 3 other times when it was at roughly the same level. The spread and ratio of the VIXEQ to the VIX are very related to the level of implied correlation. Implied correlation is the single risk factor I've spent the most time on over the past two years. Just like implied vol, implied correlation is driven by carry. That is, its spread to realized. When realized vol goes down, so does implied vol. That's because the economics of the hedge portfolio for an option deteriorate when realized vol falls. Implied correlation also falls when realized correlation falls. The last several years the SPX has experienced realized dispersion (low correlation) to an extent nearly unimaginable just a few years earlier. The dampening of vol at the index level has been wonderful, but potentially leading investors to underestimate how much risk there was in the index. I've argued that never seen before levels of realized correlation have been a risk hiding in plain sight. What we see now is a repricing of the relationship between single stock vol and index vol. The numbers below tell the story. The VIX is 10(!) points higher for the same level of single stock vol. If you had the dispersion trade on (and depending how you had it structured), that could be a pretty significant neg mark to market. Here's what's worth appreciating. The final column is realized correlation. It's up, but not by a great deal. Essentially, the market has simply bid up index vol relative to SS vol because it's willing to pay more for future correlation. That's the spread in the last two columns - the CMP "Co-movement Premium". Again, to recap, the market has moved the VIX up by 10 without moving single stock vol at all. It's demand for index vol driven by a bid for correlation. If you are in the trade where you are effectively short correlation and you are watching the world of risk unfold, risk management is job#1 and that's about reducing sizing and seeing where the market will ultimately reprice to. What makes the repricing thus far so worthy of thinking about is that it has not been driven by a surge in realized correlation (ala the Tariff Tantrum of 2025). It's all risk premium and specifically correlation risk premium.

@Dr_Gingerballs @BickerinBrattle more like buying of troubled assets than QE

@BickerinBrattle Why lower stimulus in the form of risk free returns if a bank is coming unglued? Wouldn’t it make more sense to do more QE?

Ok. Let me put it this way. If a large bank is coming unglued the Fed will cut 1/2% in this FOMC

@bestplayeratlas divorce

Oldest Bitcoin whale just dumped $1.24B in BTC. Survived every cycle since 2009. But sells here. Ask yourself why.

TrumpRx is adding a plethora of new prescription drugs at the lowest prices anywhere in the world. GSK and Amgen are two major pharmaceutical companies adding drugs at Most-Favored-Nation pricing, helping AMERICANS save more money on medications.

Can use everyone’s help and signal on this. Earlier today one of my friends and an SMC family member told me about a local veteran in need. This is Claire Atwell I’m with in the picture. He is 98 years old and still in fighting shape. He is an Army Korean War veteran and also served in the Navy. His identity was stolen and his accounts have been drained as well as other fraudulent loans and things happening with the identity theft. He didn’t have much to begin with and now he is a little desperate while the AG and local police sort things out. We are taking the next couple days to raise some money for him to help until it’s straightened out. Any amount helps and it all goes to him. If you can’t help we ask you to share. He doesn’t have anyone to help him stockingmillcoffee.com/products/drive…

@smcroasters done

@yieldsearcher The question is whether the market would pay a higher premium to a company who reported earnings more frequently?

Not a fan of this though I understand the motive. But I suspect this will make earnings reaction even more volatile than before, and taking vacations in July and August will be pretty challenging for all finance professionals going forward.

@SusieWiles I hope you heal completely and as comfortably as possible.

Last week, I was diagnosed with breast cancer. Nearly one in eight women in the United States will face this diagnosis. Every day, these women continue to raise their families, go to work, and serve their communities with strength and determination. I now join their ranks. I am grateful to have an outstanding team of doctors who detected the cancer early and are guiding my care, and I am encouraged by a very good prognosis. I am also deeply thankful for the support and encouragement of President Trump as I undergo treatment and continue serving in my role as White House Chief of Staff.