ทวีตที่ปักหมุด
Marc Tremblay
57 posts
Marc Tremblay
@galtback
Critical infrastructures | American Industrial Renaissance | DPI | Phosphate | Hyperscaling Agentic AI | Ideas, intuitions & speculations | No investment advice
United States เข้าร่วม Eylül 2025
26 กำลังติดตาม33 ผู้ติดตาม
At some point we will talk the language of stocks and commoditis exchanges to characterize this, bid/ask/spread/volume/efficiency etc.. Because letting the agents select services autonomously, at scale and with velocity will push services market efficiency to unprededeted levels. On top of that letting intermediarey agents routing, arbitraging, and even deploying, their own services alternatives, will in turn create even more market efficiency.
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Stripe processed $1.9 trillion in payment volume last year. They just built a CLI that lets AI agents provision and pay for every service in your stack with one command.
Read that again.
Karpathy writes a blog post about how painful it is to wire up services manually. Patrick Collison quotes it and announces the fix. The fix happens to route every agent's billing through Stripe.
Vercel, Supabase, Neon, PlanetScale, PostHog, Clerk, Railway, Turso, Chroma, RunloopAI. All provisioned from the terminal. All billed through Stripe. One payment method stored once, shared across every provider via tokenized credentials.
This is the tollbooth strategy executed at infrastructure level. Stripe already handles payments for ChatGPT, Claude, Cursor, Replit, Lovable, Midjourney, and Vercel. Now they're the layer that lets those tools' agents set up the services underneath them too. Every AI coding agent that spins up a database, connects auth, or adds analytics is doing it through Stripe's pipes.
The timing tells you everything. Stripe's valuation jumped 74% in one year to $159 billion. Their Revenue suite (Billing, Invoicing, Tax) is on track for $1 billion ARR. 25% of all Delaware corporations are already created through Stripe Atlas. And the new bet is that agents will provision more software, faster, than any human team ever did, and every transaction flows through one chokepoint.
The company that solved "accept payments on the internet" just solved "let robots buy software on the internet." The second market is going to be bigger than the first.
Patrick Collison@patrickc
When @karpathy built MenuGen (karpathy.bearblog.dev/vibe-coding-me…), he said: "Vibe coding menugen was exhilarating and fun escapade as a local demo, but a bit of a painful slog as a deployed, real app. Building a modern app is a bit like assembling IKEA future. There are all these services, docs, API keys, configurations, dev/prod deployments, team and security features, rate limits, pricing tiers." We've all run into this issue when building with agents: you have to scurry off to establish accounts, clicking things in the browser as though it's the antediluvian days of 2023, in order to unblock its superintelligent progress. So we decided to build Stripe Projects to help agents instantly provision services from the CLI. For example, simply run: $ stripe projects add posthog/analytics And it'll create a PostHog account, get an API key, and (as needed) set up billing. Projects is launching today as a developer preview. You can register for access (we'll make it available to everyone soon) at projects.dev. We're also rolling out support for many new providers over the coming weeks. (Get in touch if you'd like to make your service available.) projects.dev
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And I think this represents a huge opportunity for Amazon: spinning off services that enable Fungible Factories, similar to how they turned their internal infrastructure into AWS as a commercial product. Fungible Factories will need robust logistics, component provisioning, traceability, and more — all areas where $AMZN has deep expertise and world-class technology.
Ben Reinhardt@Ben_Reinhardt
Finally wrote up a talk outlining what this new way of making things might look like and potential challenges to making it happen. blog.spec.tech/p/fungible-fac…
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Marc Tremblay รีทวีตแล้ว
Finally wrote up a talk outlining what this new way of making things might look like and potential challenges to making it happen.
blog.spec.tech/p/fungible-fac…
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Marc Tremblay รีทวีตแล้ว
Qatar's LNG is offline for 3-5 years
The US was already building the replacement
North America's LNG export capacity could more than double by 2029.
This chart was drawn before the war.
Now it looks like a strategic masterplan ♟️
Projects coming online 2026-2029:
🇺🇸 Plaquemines — already ramping
🇺🇸 Corpus Christi Stage III — coming
🇺🇸 Golden Pass — Exxon/QatarEnergy joint venture
🇨🇦 LNG Canada — first Canadian exports
🇺🇸 Port Arthur — major capacity
🇺🇸 Rio Grande — massive scale
🇺🇸 CP2 Phase 1 — next wave
🇺🇸 Woodside Louisiana LNG — 2029
From 11 bcf/day today to 28+ bcf/day by 2029.
Ras Laffan produced 10 bcf/day.
Now offline for 3-5 years minimum.
The gap is enormous.
The US filling it is inevitable.
Every desperate LNG buyer (China, Japan, Korea, India, Europe ) now has one supplier capable of scaling at this speed.
🇺🇸 America.
Iran accidentally handed the US permanent LNG dominance.
This chart is the proof🛢️⚡
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Thanks for reading. I'm not familiar with the Kore Potash project at all. I've investigated other listed phosphate mine projects, and the range is quite limited, but I kept returning to that one because of its unique alignment with North America's current needs. Will look into it. In my opinion, the strategic importance of fertilisers is ridiculously underestimated.
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@SawyerMerritt @Tesla Looks like America will need a source of battery-grade phosphoric acid produced from secure onshore high-grade phosphate deposits.
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Marc Tremblay@galtback
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BREAKING: The U.S. Government has officially announced that @Tesla and LG Energy have signed an agreement to build a $4.3 billion lithium iron phosphate (LFP) prismatic battery cell manufacturing factory in Lansing, Michigan, with a 2027 start of production.
"American-made cells will power Tesla's Megapack 3 energy storage systems produced in Houston, creating a robust domestic battery supply chain," the U.S. Department of the Interior said in a statement.
Here's everything you need to know about Tesla's new Megablock, the latest in the company's industrial storage product lineup, which includes the new Megapack version 3:
Megablock:
• 23% faster to install with up to 40% lower construction costs
• Plug and play platform (hardware, software and services) delivered as one all from Tesla. It's a pre-engineered medium-voltage block that integrates next-gen Megapack 3
• Eliminated above ground cabling between the transformer and the megapacks using new flexible busbar assembly
• 91% MV round trip efficiency
• 20 MWh of usable AC energy
• Operates in temps of -40°C (-40°F) to 60°C (140°F)
• 248 MWh per acre
• 25-year life & >10,000 cycles
• With Megablock, Tesla is targeting to commission 1GWh in 20 business days, equivalent to bringing power to 400,000 homes in less than month
Megapack 3:
• Will be manufactured in Tesla's upcoming Houston Megafactory starting in late 2026. 50 GWh annual manufacturing capacity when fully ramped.
• 5 MWh of usable AC energy
• Weight: 86,000 lbs
• 28 foot long enclosure that can be shipped globally
• Optimized for up to 8-hour applications
• New drastically simplified thermal bay. Uses Model Y heat pump, but on steroids. 78% fewer connections, which minimizes failure points
• Larger battery module and larger battery cell
• 2.8 liter battery cell, co-engineered with Tesla's cell team
• LFP battery
• Operates in -40°C to 60°
• Went from 24 cable connections in Megapack version 2XL, down to 3 simple busbar connections
• 75% of the mass of Megapack 3 is battery cells.
• A single module in it weighs as much as a Cybertruck
• Tesla has enabled easier front access service, so there are no roof penetrations
• Drastically simplified bussing system
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@business Onshore production of merchant-grade and battery-grade phosphoric acid and fertilizers is key for our military and food sovereignty . #Phosphate #BatteryMetals #FoodSecurity #Reshoring
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Marc Tremblay@galtback
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The Chinese government has asked exporters to halt outbound shipments of nitrogen-potassium fertilizer blends bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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@ctindale Very good article. Thanks. Onshore production of battery-grade phosphoric acid is an important part of that equation. #Phosphate #BatteryMetals #Reshoring
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Marc Tremblay@galtback
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I started hand-writing machine code on 6502s, then MASM, Pascal, C... never looked back at the asm output. Later ran a DSP team porting ACELP speech codecs—5–9 months per DSP per engineer, hand-tuned assembly. Team resisted compiling from C: 'bugs, bloat, inefficiency!' Sound familiar? We started with decoders, then encoders. Inline asm + crazy compiler pragmas became our superpower. When floating-point DSPs like TI C6x arrived, hand-assembly became impossible anyway. Team finally rallied.Never regretted ditching hand-tuned asm. Same story repeating now with vibe coding / AI-gen code. History rhymes.
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41% of all code shipped in 2025 was AI-generated or AI-assisted. The defect rate on that code is 1.7x higher than human-written code. And a randomized controlled trial found that experienced developers using AI tools were actually 19% slower than developers working without them.
Devs have always written slop. The entire software industry is built on infrastructure designed to catch slop before it ships. Code review, linting, type checking, CI/CD pipelines, staging environments. All of it assumes one thing: the person who wrote the code can walk you through what it does when the reviewer asks.
That assumption held for 50 years. It broke in about 18 months.
When 41% of your codebase was generated by a machine and approved by a human who skimmed it because the tests passed, the review process becomes theater. The reviewer is checking code neither of them wrote. The linter catches syntax, not intent. The tests verify behavior, not understanding.
The old slop had an owner. Someone could explain why temp_fix_v3_FINAL existed, what edge case it handled, and what would break if you removed it. The new slop has an approver. Different relationship entirely.
Arvid’s right that devs wrote bad code before AI. The part he’s missing: the entire quality infrastructure of software engineering was designed around a world where the author and the debugger were the same person. That world ended last year and nothing has replaced it yet.
Arvid Kahl@arvidkahl
Devs are acting like they didn’t write slop code before AI.
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@mariogabriele @ZachBDell Yes! LFP batteries—with the P as in phosphate. America will need to secure its battery-grade phosphate supply chain. And we have the largest known battery-grade phosphate deposits of all onshore.
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Marc Tremblay@galtback
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Are batteries the single most important technology in American energy?
According to @ZachBDell, yes. While batteries cannot generate electricity, they are able to:
• charge on low-cost solar during the day
• charge on low-cost wind at night
• discharge when power prices are high
Two-thirds of the American grid sits unused every single day. Batteries, Zach argues, are how we fix that.
Mario Gabriele 🦊@mariogabriele
For decades, America’s electrical system has rewarded utilities for building more infrastructure, not for lowering costs. The result is a grid that expanded but rarely improved. @ZachBDell, co-founder and CEO of @basepowerco, is building a different kind of power company. In our conversation, we explore: • How a failed college solar project and early energy experiments in India pulled Zach into the power industry • How the U.S. grid’s regulatory structure discourages innovation and why Texas’s deregulated market creates space for new power companies • Base’s “make, move, store, sell” framework for thinking about the full power stack • How aggressive AI adoption is compressing cycle times and why slow adopters risk falling behind Thank you to the partners who make this possible - @meetgranola: The app that might actually make you love meetings: granola.ai/mario - @brexHQ: The intelligent finance platform: brex.com/mario (00:00) Introduction to Zach Dell and Base (09:31) Lessons from Phil Jackson on aligning talented teams (21:49) Justin’s strengths as a co-founder and how their partnership formed (30:55) Why Base became the obvious focus (41:44) How Base works in two market types (50:43) The Gen 2 hardware mistake and the lesson in risk management (58:45) How hiring at Base has evolved (1:06:29) Final meditations
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Just so you know, someone did a deep dive on every fertilizer company in early November 2025.
Producers :
$NTR – Nutrien Ltd – Potash, Nitrogen, Phosphate – 🇨🇦 Canada
$SQM – Sociedad Quí. y Min. de Chile – Potash, Phosphate – 🇨🇱 Chile
$MOS – The Mosaic Company – Phosphate, Potash – 🇺🇸 United States
$CF – CF Industries – Nitrogen – 🇺🇸 United States
$YAR.OL – Yara International – Nitrogen, NPK – 🇳🇴 Norway
$ICL – ICL Group – Potash, Phosphate, NPK – 🇮🇱 Israel
$SDF.DE – K+S AG – Potash – 🇩🇪 Germany
$2020.SR – SABIC Agri-Nutrients – Nitrogen – 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
$ATT.WA – Grupa Azoty – Nitrogen, NPK – 🇵🇱 Poland
$0297.HK – Sinofert Holdings – NPK – 🇨🇳 China
$IPI – Intrepid Potash – Potash – 🇺🇸 United States
$PHOR.ME – PhosAgro – Phosphate – 🇷🇺 Russia
$NPK.TO – Verde AgriTech – Potash – 🇧🇷 Brazil
$UAN – CVR Partners, LP – Nitrogen – 🇺🇸 United States
$IFOS.V – Itafos – Phosphate – 🇨🇦 Canada
Developers / Explorers
$DAN.V – Arianne Phosphate – Phosphate – 🇨🇦 Canada
$MNB.AX – Minbos Resources – Phosphate – 🇦🇴 Angola
$GSP.V – Gensource Potash – Potash – 🇨🇦 Canada
$KP2.L – Kore Potash – Potash – 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo
$EML.L – Emmerson plc – Potash – 🇲🇦 Morocco
$PHOS.CN – First Phosphate Corp – Phosphate – 🇨🇦 Canada
$PHO.AX – PhosCo Ltd – Phosphate – 🇹🇳 Tunisia
$AEV.AX – Avenira Ltd – Phosphate – 🇦🇺 Australia
$AMN.AX – Agrimin Ltd – Potash – 🇦🇺 Australia
$AGR.AX – Aguia Resources – Phosphate – 🇧🇷 Brazil
$SAGE.V – Sage Potash Corp – Potash – 🇺🇸 United States
$MLP.V – Millennial Potash Corp – Potash – 🇬🇦 Gabon
Kacper Piotr Kaminski@Kacper_PK_CH
Agriculture Deep Dive | Fertilizers - Part 1 🧵 Starting a series where we look at leading agricultural companies and their charts. First focus: fertilizer producers, the foundation of global food supply 🌾 Bear with me, it’ll take a bit to get through them all. Some today, others later. Producers : $NTR – Nutrien Ltd – Potash, Nitrogen, Phosphate – 🇨🇦 Canada $SQM – Sociedad Quí. y Min. de Chile – Potash, Phosphate – 🇨🇱 Chile $MOS – The Mosaic Company – Phosphate, Potash – 🇺🇸 United States $CF – CF Industries – Nitrogen – 🇺🇸 United States $YAR.OL – Yara International – Nitrogen, NPK – 🇳🇴 Norway $ICL – ICL Group – Potash, Phosphate, NPK – 🇮🇱 Israel $SDF.DE – K+S AG – Potash – 🇩🇪 Germany $2020.SR – SABIC Agri-Nutrients – Nitrogen – 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia $ATT.WA – Grupa Azoty – Nitrogen, NPK – 🇵🇱 Poland $0297.HK – Sinofert Holdings – NPK – 🇨🇳 China $IPI – Intrepid Potash – Potash – 🇺🇸 United States $PHOR.ME – PhosAgro – Phosphate – 🇷🇺 Russia $NPK.TO – Verde AgriTech – Potash – 🇧🇷 Brazil $UAN – CVR Partners, LP – Nitrogen – 🇺🇸 United States $IFOS.V – Itafos – Phosphate – 🇨🇦 Canada Developers / Explorers $DAN.V – Arianne Phosphate – Phosphate – 🇨🇦 Canada $MNB.AX – Minbos Resources – Phosphate – 🇦🇴 Angola $GSP.V – Gensource Potash – Potash – 🇨🇦 Canada $KP2.L – Kore Potash – Potash – 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo $EML.L – Emmerson plc – Potash – 🇲🇦 Morocco $PHOS.CN – First Phosphate Corp – Phosphate – 🇨🇦 Canada $PHO.AX – PhosCo Ltd – Phosphate – 🇹🇳 Tunisia $AEV.AX – Avenira Ltd – Phosphate – 🇦🇺 Australia $AMN.AX – Agrimin Ltd – Potash – 🇦🇺 Australia $AGR.AX – Aguia Resources – Phosphate – 🇧🇷 Brazil $SAGE.V – Sage Potash Corp – Potash – 🇺🇸 United States $MLP.V – Millennial Potash Corp – Potash – 🇬🇦 Gabon x.com/Kacper_PK_CH/s…
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A sinkhole big enough to fly a helicopter into. Let that sink in.
Florida’s Sinkhole Crisis: Processing sedimentary phosphate rock creates "phosphogypsum" stacks—massive piles of acidic, radioactive waste. These stacks are vulnerable and prone to sinkholes, such as the famous 2016 breach and the 2021 Piney Point incident.
These events released hundreds of millions of gallons of radioactive polluted water directly into the Floridan Aquifer through a sinkhole big enough to fly a helicopter into. This poses a direct, existential threat to the drinking water of millions.
America needs to secure onshore safe battery-grade phosphate now.
Arianne Phosphate ( TSX-V: $DAN OTCQB: $DRRSF )
First Phosphate ( CSE: $PHOS OTCQX: $FPHOY )
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Forbes@Forbes
A massive sinkhole has leaked radioactive water into Florida's aquifer on.forbes.com/6016BCMZ8
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America Phosphate Security
Morocco holds over 70% of the world's known phosphate reserves. While currently stable, its production is inextricably linked to Western Sahara—a territory whose sovereignty has been contested for decades in a conflict involving the Polisario Front and neighboring Algeria.
The Polisario Front is a nationalist and Arab socialist liberation movement with known links to Iran-backed groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah. More recently, observers have warned of a potential “Houthi-fication” of the Polisario movement, suggesting further supply challenges ahead.
Arianne Phosphate ( TSX-V: $DAN OTCQB: $DRRSF ) First Phosphate ( CSE: $PHOS OTCQX: $FPHOY )
Marc Tremblay@galtback
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LFP (P as in Phosphate) batteries are becoming the chemistry of choice. In 2023-2024 alone, LFP surged to capture 40% of the global EV market and nearly 90% of the stationary energy storage (ESS) sector. America urgently need to secure the supply of battery-grade phosphate.
Arianne Phosphate ( TSX-V: $DAN OTCQB: $DRRSF )
First Phosphate ( CSE: $PHOS OTCQX: $FPHOY )
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$TSLA, $GOOGL and others joined a new coalition called Utilize to cut power costs by using underused grid capacity, with research suggesting $180B in U.S. savings over the next decade.
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Historically, 90% of phosphate has gone toward fertilizers. But LFP (P as in Phosphate) batteries are becoming the chemistry of choice. In 2023-2024 alone, LFP surged to capture 40% of the global EV market and nearly 90% of the stationary energy storage (ESS) sector. Phosphorus is also a foundational military asset, primarily utilized for instantaneous smoke screens that block infrared and thermal imaging.
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Agriculture and Fertilizers are leading the commodity complex.
Still underowned.
Still underfollowed.
This theme is about to get a lot of attention.
Rock Bottom Entries@RockBtmEntries
Metals ripping grabs attention. Wheat compressing on a multi-decade support changes lives. This isn’t hype or a trade call - it’s a structural setup with global consequences. Food inflation may soon become a front-page issue.
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Morocco holds over 70% of the world's known phosphate reserves. While currently stable, its production is inextricably linked to Western Sahara—a territory whose sovereignty has been contested for decades in a conflict involving the Polisario Front and neighboring Algeria.
The Polisario Front is a nationalist and Arab socialist liberation movement with known links to Iran-backed groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah. More recently, observers have warned of a potential “Houthi-fication” of the Polisario movement, suggesting further supply challenges ahead.
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@FertilizerWeek1 On securing high grade phosphate for America
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Marc Tremblay@galtback
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Around 47% of global #sulphur, 43% of #urea, 27% of #ammonia and 24% of #phosphate fertilizer global traded supply is at risk. The industry is in paralysis, and the full implications are not yet known
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The global #fertilizer market’s worst fears are unfolding, with chaos enveloping the Middle East and rippling through commodity and financial markets. The halt in traffic via Hormuz has caused a surge in #urea export prices from Egypt (1/3)
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