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Spent time with a former Rolex & Tudor sales consultant in London.
The waitlist, the grey market, and why $MC watch brands can’t catch up. 🧵
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Intern Pierre
12K posts
Intern Pierre
@internpierre
Luxury & markets analysis without the PR gloss. On-the-ground channel checks from Monaco to Madison Ave. Coverage includes LVMH, Ferrari, REAL, RH, OFRM
Monaco เข้าร่วม Ekim 2023
709 กำลังติดตาม1.3K ผู้ติดตาม
@SpecialSitsNews Have done a lot of work on this one. Interviews with dealers paint a very bleak picture (especially in the Middle East) here’s one if anybody is interested: open.substack.com/pub/internpier…
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Ferrari down 43pct, no demand from Dubai or the Emirates could fall more
Fiscal.ai@fiscal_ai
Ferrari is now in its largest drawdown ever. -43.1% from highs. $RACE
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Please please please let me borrow as many of your shares as I can! $RACE @jbulltard1
Antonio Linares@alc2022
Seeing arguably the most undisruptable operation on the planet drop like this is just a reminder that stocks go down sometimes. $RACE is not vulnerable to AI. Recessions. Geopolitics. Has no competition. Everyone wants a Ferrari of some kind.
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Dolce & Gabbana is entering fresh lender negotiations as weak luxury demand pressures earnings and debt covenants. ~€400M in bank debt, retail sales contracting, profitability under strain.
Private luxury names are not immune. $LVMH $KER
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@PythiaR The who are pushing $RACE do not understand the company. There’s a lot more downside in my opinion
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Basically nobody on fintwit pushing $RACE ever accounted for their capitalized R&D. The stock was at like a 1% FCF yield at the peak.
Fiscal.ai@fiscal_ai
Ferrari is now in its largest drawdown ever. -43.1% from highs. $RACE
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@GeriPerna University in the US became a commodity which is imagine is part of it. I’d argue that 75% of people in US universities shouldn’t be there and would be better off in jobs that didn’t require degrees.
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When I worked at Macy's back in the 80's, people who worked there raised families on what they made. It was their career. I remember the guy in electronics retired after 30 years, and my boss in the cash office did the same. The guys who worked in the suit department did very well for themselves. Despite that, the store profited greatly every year, and we were given a beautiful Christmas party in appreciation. What changed in this country? When did it become nearly impossible to support oneself at a job that didn't require a degree or technical school?
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@fx_imba I’ve written extensively on this with notes, site visits etc here: open.substack.com/pub/internpier…
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@internpierre Okay, I understand. And in your opinion, where is this going to lead? That suddenly Ferrari will see a drop in car purchases from their showrooms, or what?
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I know Honda isn’t a direct comp but with this, Lamborghini, Rolls Royce scrapping EV plans why is Ferrari continuing with the Luce? $RACE
Financial Times@FT
Honda and Sony scrap luxury EVs in latest electric rollback ft.trib.al/bVgu6Vv
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On Cloud CEO Martin Hoffmann out May 1. Cofounders David Allemann & Caspar Coppetti step in as co-CEOs. Scott Maguire promoted to President & COO. $ONON
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@fx_imba Because clients are purchasing to qualify for “halo” models and dealers are even selling new cars to shadow dealers that will resell to clients Ferrari won’t qualify. Which is why you see an influx of very low mileage preowned cars for sale (at a heavy discount).
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@internpierre If some of their models have been so terrible for the past 4 years, then why do they sell out everything year after year, with orders placed several years in advance?
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lol I was long the name since IPO and am a client so I’m a huge fan of the brand. I have been short $RACE for a few months as unfortunately the cars they’ve made the past 4 ish years are awful (the hybrids especially) and the depreciation / fact they don’t sell when resold tells a lot whereas the older analog models are setting records at auction.
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@internpierre And going back to your first question, why does Ferrari do it the opposite way to Rolls-Royce or Lamborghini.
If Ferrari operated like other companies, it wouldn't be Ferrari.
Best regards and have a nice day
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Nice to see people starting to get this
TM@TMtheOG
the entire luxury market (watches, cars, anything you've seen on instagram over the past years) is about to crash
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We used to be able to fly from New York to London in under 3 hours.
Now we get excited about being allowed to buy three consecutive seats and receiving a polyester blanket.
A McKinsey profit-optimization seat arrangement is not innovation.
Aubrey Strobel@aubreystrobel
Best innovations of the last 5 years: 1. Sam Altman, Nov 30 2022: "Today we launched ChatGPT. Try it here." 2. This.
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@business What is stopping a business like Anthropic from nuking Harvey?
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Harvey, a startup that develops artificial intelligence for law firms, has raised $200 million in a new funding round that values the company at $11 billion. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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I'd say 15+ dealers are less biased on customer intent / order flow than the CEO who is literally paid to be positive. It's not like he's going to say "nobody wants it" when trying to sell a €500.000 EV. I guess time will tell as to who is correct on this one. Always happy to hear the other side!
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@internpierre The words of your dealers are also not equivalent to orders. The orders haven't even started yet. I'm not surprised that people aren't eager to buy something they haven't even seen with their own eyes.
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@internpierre Dog shit 😂 the interior looks awful IMO. I'm soo looking forward to what their stock does on release. If their stock drops on release day I think I'll start a position in the hopes this will be their first and last pure EV
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@fx_imba lol positive feedback doesn’t equate to orders… semantics are important sir
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@internpierre So who is right? The CEO or your dealers? Anyway, I prefer to trust the CEO
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@icebird573 Yeah I’d agree they can’t really pull the plug given how much capital they’ve invested in building it. But at a certain point you’d think they’d say ok this isn’t going to work let’s not put out dog shit
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@internpierre I think: because its too late. they spent years developing it and I dont think theres a way back / out of it now. They are so worried it will sell like shit that they didn´t even disclose number of models / price yet
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@fx_imba lol have you checked the stock price? Dealers have said on calls that there is literally zero demand for it. The Purosangue is also depreciating quite a bit. Here’s a link for a transcript on Luce demand: open.substack.com/pub/internpier…
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@internpierre People said the same thing about the Ferrari Purosangue.
'It's an SUV, it's no longer a Ferrari, it doesn't fit the brand.'
They made the car and now there are queues of people waiting for it.
Just let them do their thing — they know what they're doing
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@FirstSquawk This isn’t surprising Uber has always been known for just doing things that are wrong until they get caught $UBER
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UBER ACCUSED OF TAX FRAUD & KNOWINGLY ALLOWING APPLICANTS TO USE OTHERS' PERSONAL INFO, CAUSING FALSE IRS REPORTS - BLAW
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