Kuleen ◎

I don’t 100% agree with this take, but I don’t disagree either

@ramzyyalii Ty. Now I have my life path charted out clearly. I look forward to my future life as a curator

The vc to liquid fund to hedge fund to curator to "stablecoin" issuer path needs to be studied Why is this so common?

Many businesses are lot more whale concentrated than people realize (e.g., mobile games, trading platforms, casinos). @Collector_Crypt is just more transparent than most, so you can actually see this distribution Being good at whale acquisition + retention is the name of the game

I thought this risk was worth highlighting given my previous piece on @Collector_Crypt, and it’s a great example of the kind of insight you only get with BW data. Collector Crypt’s weekly gross revenue has never looked stronger, driven by the dominance of $1,000 Pokémon packs and the recently launched One Piece gacha machines. However, a material risk is starting to emerge: volume concentration. The top address by gacha spend has put in $22M, which is 3.2x more than the next largest user. Even more striking, 93% of this activity has come in just the last 30 days, and this single address accounts for ~30% of total volume on CC over that period. What’s unusual is that this user has retained none of the cards and is down ~$850K. Their behavior looks very different from the rest of the user base. I won’t speculate on what’s happening behind the scenes, but the implication is clear: there is meaningful concentration risk. If this address slows down, reported metrics could drop 15–30% very quickly.

This is a token raise right? Right???

@jon_charb @futarddotio Agree! And the first team I've seen in crypto with the wherewithal to actually get the pot big enough is going to launch their product in the coming months (@shufflecom) x.com/knimkar/status…

onchain lottery is clearly a perfect crypto use case 2 reasons they dont exist 1) reg risk 2) marketing (need sufficient pot to start flywheel) would be an ideal @futarddotio raise: 1) permissionless raise: anons build decentralized protocol 2) token day 1: community marketing

I would almost be happy to have $BTC go to zero just so Strategy pays for this marketing crime

Inspired by this note from @LeadEdgeCapital

The hierarchy of information in crypto pitches: - If protocols have earnings, they report those (basically nobody) - If protocols don’t have good earnings, they report holder revenues - If protocols don’t have good holder revenues, they report fees - If protocols don’t have good fees, they report Other Onchain Metrics (e.g., TVL, txn count, or wallet count) - If protocols don’t have good Other Onchain Metrics, they report their cap table (how much they raised, and from which VCs) - If protocols don’t have a good cap table, they report their social media presence (X, Discord, TG followings)

As disappointed / frustrated as I was with the polymarket bet, pretty impressed with the way both @MetaDAOProject and @P2Pdotme teams have handled the situation. Super transparent and responsive from both sets of founders. I'm staying

@noahdummett I'd add poor token liquidity as a weakness! I shed a tear every time I have to use ETH to buy $SHFL. So... that's been a lot of tears over the last year Also, I know for a fact it constrains fund managers from holding it

The strengths of $SHFL: - considerable real value being delivered to the token (more than most cryptocurrencies can claim) - strong, crypto-native team The weaknesses of $SHFL: - one centralised source of value - total supply too high, too much locked in treasury - generally low confidence in gamblefi from the market This year is about converting these weaknesses to strengths; I have a feeling that solving the first two leads to the third following suit. More to come.

if $KMNO actually rerates because of this dashboard it will be a sad and hilarious indictment of how inefficient token markets remain

One of the protocols highlighted in this chart seems quite undervalued relative to its ability to win RWA lending

A number of folks have asked me about $TAO. I don’t own $TAO, but here are my 2cents: As it stands, TAO remains a belief asset / memecoin. It’s the biggest AI memecoin and TAO “staking” into subnets is highly reflexive and so one should expect big moves in either direction. And crypto market participants have shown time and time again that they will bid belief assets with the right narrative, so TAO could absolutely continue sending, but as it stands there’s no way to reason about a fair value for the token. What it would take for me to update my view on $TAO as more than a belief asset/memecoin: 1/ One or more subnets starts earning meaningful non-emissions revenue OR I would settle simply for evidence of a clear customer with willingness to pay for the subnet’s service. E.g., if Templar’s training API starts getting paid usage from startups wanting to change open source models, cool 2/ The subnet enshrines value accrual from their revenue to the alpha token. Now, even if 1 or 2 happen, it doesn’t mean $TAO valuation is justified, but at least you would be able to reason about it

@spacemandev @SolanaFndn HUGE!!!

I’m excited to announce I started at @SolanaFndn as new Developer Relations Engineer, specifically focusing on AI. As I start my work, I want to talk about high level how I think about the job, how it’s transforming in the age of AI and why Solana is the best place to build agentic applications that make use of blockchains.

@KyleSamani No. I have no view on model intelligence 5-10 years from now But I suspect it will still be waaay too expensive a process for vast majority of people / orgs to afford

In 5-10 years, will you be able to instruct a leading-edge closed source model “please build for me a model with comparable performance and intelligence to that of yourself”?

@tushar_jain @shayonsengupta @SpencerApplebau Congrats!!!! 👏👏👏

I am excited to announce that @shayonsengupta and @SpencerApplebau have been promoted to General Partner and Co-Heads of Venture at Multicoin Capital. Over the past several years, both have taken on significantly more responsibility across every dimension of our business. They’ve not only continued to identify, source, and lead deals at an increasing rate, but have also increasingly taken on more ownership of the strategy, operations, and long-term direction of Multicoin. Multicoin was founded on the belief that crypto will fundamentally reshape global markets. We recently published our updated thesis for the next decade of crypto. We couldn't be more excited about the future of crypto and opportunity to invest in these theses.

@0xINFRA @P2Pdotme yessir 🫡

@knimkar @P2Pdotme Status: liquid market arc activated

@akashku30853811 @P2Pdotme It's a MetaDAO token. It does not need to have utility I just need to believe the business can generate cash flow

@knimkar @P2Pdotme There is no use of token why are you bullisj

My take on @P2Pdotme ($P2P) as we come up on the launch: I’m in for the ride. My mental model for $P2P is not really decentralized Binance P2P. It’s that the app could become something like the Cash App or Phantom for emerging markets users with the on/offramp product as the hook. The bet here would be that the P2P team has the grit and hustle to 1) grow its EM userbase and 2) monetize that userbase via defi activity. These are both large open questions. I’m more confident in 2 than in 1. But this is a team that has fought it out to get initial traction and PMF, and may just deliver. And the size of the prize is substantial relative to the starting valuation. Pros - App and team focused on being the onchain onboarding path for an emerging markets userbase. This is arguably the userbase for whom the onchain economy is most relevant (India, Brazil, Indonesia etc.) --- And like every great onchain product, there’s an element of reg arb (e.g., users in India who want to avoid the 1% TDS) - Sharp, leaned-in, and 100% incentive-aligned team --- I place a significant premium on teams that have fought for years in relative obscurity with few resources to find PMF. It’s the best and perhaps only way to gauge grit. This squad has it --- It’s a MetaDAO launch and the team token vesting is quite investor friendly - Unique “pure-play” expression of a bet --- Unique protocol in its design, but one that elegantly stitches together various pieces of crypto to serve a useful end product --- There aren’t other liquid assets that give you access to this category: on/off-ramp services in emerging markets. A category with particularly powerful PMF Cons - Growth in non $ volume-based metrics has stalled since mid-2025. That needs to change --- Team is quite oriented towards “decentralizing” the protocol. That’s fine, and it does mitigate some of the regulatory risk here. But customers don’t acquire themselves and I remain skeptical a decentralized approach works --- Companies like Uber and DoorDash built their local network with highly targeted geographic expansion efforts. I suspect P2P will have to do the same and this benefits from highly centralized resource deployment - Even if you can acquire customers, is this a customer base you can make a large amount of money on? --- Product today does not really support large ticket on/offramping (due to how the reputation system works) --- Defi businesses all make money from whales and/or price-insensitive retail traders. Can P2P win either of these segments? The userbase today is largely young people, so there’s some line of sight to winning the retail trader group - Regulatory risk: you need to ascribe some real % chance to negative tail risk outcomes here (see recent situation with DCX founders in India)

@nixholas @drebaglioni @therealchaseeb @brianlong @notlikedion @jacobvcreech @SolanaFndn 🫡🫡🫡 time for a new notebook?

Would like to once again thank @knimkar @drebaglioni @therealchaseeb @brianlong @notlikedion @jacobvcreech (dk why I can’t find Solomon from @SolanaFndn) and to many more people I definitely forgotten in the ecosystem whom I have not met for a long time ❤️🙏🙏

The end of an amazing notebook. Started in 2021, done in 2026. Also snapped a pic in a random page in the middle. Amazing journey of conversations, collaborations and opportunities recorded in the @solana ecosystem. Dedicated the last page to @solanafm and @JupiterExchange autographs until it’s filled.