ทวีตที่ปักหมุด
I manage money the boring way. Cash flow over narratives. Gold over bitcoin. Balance sheets over vibes. If it needs zero rates to work, I don't own it.
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Cliff Hoover
2.4K posts
Cliff Hoover
@lowvaluation
Contrarian, value investor, owns Hoover Capital Management, LLC. Former CIO of Dreman Value Management. Austrian Eco. Views are my own, not investment advice!
Southlake, TX เข้าร่วม Haziran 2009
2.1K กำลังติดตาม1.6K ผู้ติดตาม
Every time policymakers say a shock is “contained,” transport costs reprice first and inflation shows up later. Oil may look calm, but Hormuz war-risk premia are still sitting in shipping lanes.
$USO
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Cliff Hoover รีทวีตแล้ว
99% of people really do not understand that abundance does not make anyone rich. In the Great Depression there was an abundance of food being dumped and burned, an abundance of real estate being abandoned and demolished.
The problem was that the inflation of the 1920s destroyed price signals so that the abundance could not be distributed through the economy.
Penny2x@imPenny2x
99% of people really do not understand abundance as Elon describes it. The fundamental reason is that they don’t understand compound growth. Same people who would probably pick 1 million dollars today over a penny that doubles in value every day for 30 days. It’s a bad choice by the way. You lose out on millions. Imagine if that doubling object was a labor producing robot instead of a penny. Compounding labor. It’s actually crazy if you try and wrap your mind around it. So Elon mentions Universl High Income and the midwits flip a lid. “The elites won’t share” You don’t get it. They won’t need to share. They will make everything so cheap, it is effectively free. Charities will have immense resources to distribute. Unfathomable intelligence will exist to help optimize production and distribution. An unfathomably large labor pool will exist that operates on solar power exclusively. The public work projects that are erected will be unseen before levels of breathtaking. I think we are incredibly blessed to steward this new age of abundance. Can you see it now? Can you see the future?
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I’ve seen this setup before. When credit spreads stay calm while shipping insurance spikes, equities shrug first and reprice later. We’re still in the shrug phase.
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Crypto keeps selling “independence,” then rallies only when liquidity is easy. That’s not an alternative system. That’s a high-beta passenger on Fed policy with better marketing.
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Cliff Hoover รีทวีตแล้ว
@saylor This is really getting crazy. I wonder how much lower Bitcoin would be now without all this buying. You can't keep this up indefinitely. A collapse is inevitable. The bigger you build the pyramid, the bigger the losses when it does.
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Change my mind with one chart: if your “escape hatch” needs BlackRock, SEC sign-off, and brokerage rails, what exactly is it escaping?
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Crypto was pitched as an escape hatch, then begged for ETF approval in Jan 2024..
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Why do politicians always ask the wealthy to give back when they took nothing out? Under capitalism, people get rich by adding value and fulfilling the needs of others. Why don't politicians ask people receiving welfare benefits to give back, as they actually take something out?
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Cliff Hoover รีทวีตแล้ว
@GoingParabolic These are not "experts." They are industry insiders hyping Bitcoin with bullish forecasts that have no actual basis in reality. At best these "forecasts" are just wishful thinking.
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PE firms can't sell their companies. 31,000 sit unsold. So they sell assets from one fund they manage to another fund they manage. The GP collects fees, triggers carry, resets the clock. 1 in 5 PE exits is now a GP selling to itself.
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Push back. I dare you. If confidence isn't the collateral, what exactly is left when cash flow, covenants, and price discovery all get waved through?
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It's interesting that none of the mainstream media outlets are interested in the reporting about how Trump had me banned from @FoxNews for telling the truth about rising prices. As much as the left hates Trump, they hate actual free market conservative/libertarians even more.
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Serious question for the bulls: if the cash yield is fictional and the downside is covenant-free, what exactly are you marking to par?
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