Tlwich

Congress voted 42-0 to embed location trackers in every advanced AI chip the US exports. Applied Materials paid $252 million for routing restricted chips to SMIC through South Korea. 56 illegal shipments. The AI arms race everyone is watching is models. The one that matters is silicon: who makes the chip, who ships it, who verifies where it sits. Finance. Geopolitics. Economics. Every price tells a story. Follow for the thread you bookmark.

@FoxNews Interesting framework, but the details matter. "60 days to negotiate" and "move against Iran's nuclear program" are two very different signals. Markets may be celebrating, but investors should read the fine print before declaring peace.

BREAKING: Details are beginning to emerge ahead of the U.S.-Iran memorandum signing ceremony, now less than 48 hours away. The proposed framework reportedly includes reopening the Strait, ending the U.S. blockade, a 60-day negotiation period over Iran's uranium enrichment, sanctions relief, and a ceasefire agreement involving Israel and Hezbollah. President Trump says he plans to move against Iran's nuclear program on Tuesday, while pointing to the 60-day window for negotiations over Tehran's nuclear ambitions. Now all eyes are on whether the ceasefires can survive long enough for any deal to take hold. @TreyYingst breaks down the latest.

@business The real story isn't the third tanker. It's whether this marks the beginning of a sustained return of Iranian exports. One tanker is an event. A steady flow is a market shift.

A third fully-loaded crude tanker has left the Iranian port of Chabahar and crossed the US blockade line heading toward Asia bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@Osint613 At this point we're getting leaks, counter-leaks, anonymous officials, and social media narratives. I'll wait for the actual details before declaring this either a masterstroke or a disaster.

@IranObserver0 100+ Boeing jets is a reminder that peace deals often move markets more than missiles ever could.

⚡️BREAKING: Iran will purchase over 100 Boeing aircraft from the United States if a Final agreement is reached between the two countries

@Osint613 You’ve essentially described a perfect-world sequence and called it a negotiation strategy. Real negotiations are built around mistrust, verification limits, and enforcement mechanisms not ideal checklists.

Here’s what a deal negotiated from a position of strength looks like: Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. lifts its naval blockade. Iran dismantles its nuclear program. The U.S. provides phased sanctions relief. Iran stops funding and arming its proxy network. The U.S. provides additional sanctions relief. Iran abandons its long range missile program. The U.S. provides additional sanctions relief. Iran ends its systematic human rights abuses and opens the country to meaningful reform. The U.S. and its allies support economic reconstruction and investment. Hezbollah withdraws from southern Lebanon and disarms. Israel fully withdraws from Lebanon. Everything is based on performance. No upfront rewards. Iran acts first. The benefits come after.

@clashreport This is why institutional checks matter major foreign policy deals should withstand internal and external debate alike

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich on Trump's Iran deal: This agreement is bad, and I think we can and should say what we think and conduct this debate.

The key risk isn’t just timing a cut it’s what the market assumes a cut means. In a regime where liquidity has been the dominant driver of multiples, policy signaling becomes a pricing mechanism for risk itself.

FOMC day. Warsh's first decision as Chair. Oil at $75, down 7% in a week. Core CPI 2.9%. Iran deal repricing energy risk globally. 20Y auction just drew strongest foreign demand in 2 years. Every input says cut. But the S&P at its most expensive valuation in 120 years says be careful. The Fed's real test isn't inflation anymore. It's whether cutting into the most expensive market in history creates the very bubble they're supposed to prevent.

@BullTheoryio This is quietly huge for inflation. Energy is one of the last remaining sticky inputs. Sub-$75 oil starts changing the CPI trajectory if it holds.”

BREAKING: Oil has officially fallen below $75 for the first time in 105 days. Oil is now down -36% from its April 7 high.

@Osint613 This post treats a lot of assumptions as confirmed facts. On issues this sensitive, sequencing rumors and open-source interpretations can easily distort reality.

Took a minute to write down my thoughts. President Trump has been great in many ways, and I hope and believe that will continue. But a number of developments over the last 24 hours have raised some eyebrows. The administration signed an MOU with Iran but has not released the details. That created a vacuum, and Iran immediately moved to shape the narrative. We were then told Lebanon is part of the agreement, that Israel was not involved in negotiating it, yet Israel is expected to abide by it and limit operations against Hezbollah. Then came a series of statements that raised even more questions. President Trump criticized Israel’s handling of Hezbollah, suggested former al-Qaeda leader should deal with the Hezbollah problem, and said that without him Israel would not exist. Trump also announced that Qatar, one of the principal sponsors of the Muslim Brotherhood, would invest $19.2 trillion in the United States. When Vice President Vance was asked why the MOU has not been released, he said the rollout was being sequenced at the request of Iran, Pakistan, and Qatar because of sensitivities in the Arab and Muslim world. At the same time, open source shipping data is already showing Iranian oil exports moving again. Meanwhile, Iran appears increasingly emboldened, publicly threatening retaliation against Israel, accusing it of violating the Lebanon ceasefire dozens of times, and warning that a harsh response may follow. The United States currently holds enormous leverage over Iran. Many of us simply want to ensure that leverage is preserved, not surrendered, before the public, Congress, and America’s allies fully understand what is in this agreement. Transparency would answer a lot of questions.

@ChrisMurphyCT This reads like rumor economics simple story, no sourcing, high confidence. That’s usually a red flag

The leaked Iran deal that is floating around suggests that this is a pretty simple transaction: we are paying Iran billions to reopen the Strait. Period. Stop. That's probably why they are refusing to release it.

@mikepompeo “When your enemy is weak win” sounds decisive, but history shows missed diplomatic windows often create stronger adversaries later, not weaker ones.

A deal with Iran must recognize that this regime has no desire to be a responsible member of the community of nations. They do not regret the last 47 years nor think it was a mistake to kill Americans. They are all radical Islamists. Any funds available to the regime - whether paid to them directly, provided by sanctions relief or via releasing escrowed funds - will go straight toward rebuilding the IRGC military capabilities and its terrorist proxies. When your enemy is at its weakest - win.

@Mike_Pence “Reportedly includes” is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. Foreign policy isn’t built on leaks and assumptions it’s built on enforceable terms.

According to language that has been reported about MOU with Iran, there is: 🔴 NO mention of dismantling the nuclear program or the ballistic missile program. 🔴 NO commitment to ending support for Hamas, Hezbollah, or other terrorist organizations But remarkably, the MOU with Iran reportedly includes: 🔴Immediate sanctions relief from the moment the MOU is signed. This means $3 BILLION a month into the coffers of Iran. 🔴A pledge of $100 billion in Iranian frozen assets being freed up based only on “progress” in negotiations 🔴The U.S. & others to arrange for a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran. The reported MOU with Iran smacks of the kind of appeasement that we saw during the Obama years, the kind of appeasement that Joe Biden tried to accomplish and was ignored by the Iranians, and the kind of appeasement we categorically rejected during the first Trump administration.

@Reuters Big Pharma pushing price leverage in Europe shows one thing: healthcare markets are increasingly being treated like energy markets strategic assets.

Big pharma taps UK playbook to pressure European capitals on drug prices reut.rs/4enL2z2 reut.rs/4enL2z2

The "non-interference" clause is the real story here. Every deal has a headline and a footnote — and in diplomacy, the footnotes are where you get burned. If Iran cracks down domestically post-ceasefire and Washington can't respond, this deal goes from peace agreement to liability. The Strait of Hormuz reopening matters for oil markets, but at what long-term cost?

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Iran deal keeps getting smaller, but one clause could become a serious problem for Trump later. Michael Rubin warns the “non-interference” language could tie Washington’s hands if Iran turns inward and starts a crackdown after the ceasefire. “It’s the incredibly shrinking agreement.” If that happens, the deal meant to end one crisis could hand Trump a brand-new one. @mrubin1971

FOMC day and semis are getting destroyed. This isn't random — the market is pricing in a scenario where rate cuts come too late to save the cycle. With $SOX down 6% and valuations still stretched, this looks like rotation out of high-beta tech ahead of Warsh's first decision as Chair.

BREAKING 🚨: Semiconductor Stocks Semis plunge by almost 6%, their 2nd largest loss since October 2025 📉📉

@VP Economic leverage works both ways once you normalize conditional trade, you also normalize long-term decoupling.

"We're fundamentally saying if the Iranians transform how they interact with the world, we will transform how the world economy interacts with Iran." — VP Vance 🔥

Burry's instinct is right — $SPCX at $3T with no public financials is peak speculation. But when even the Big Short himself says options are too expensive to short, that's the real signal. Implied vol is pricing in the exact risk he sees. The market knows it's overvalued. It just doesn't care — yet.

JUST IN 🚨: Michael Burry wants to short SpaceX $SPCX, but the options are too expensive

@FabrizioRomano 🐐 16 World Cup goals. 6 World Cups. 21 years between his first and latest World Cup appearance. Lionel Messi isn't just breaking records anymore he's rewriting football history.

🚨 OFFICIAL: Lionel Messi, TOP SCORER EVER in World Cup history joint with Miro Klose. 🎞️⭐️ 16 goals at the World Cup. 💥🇦🇷 In one night, on 6th World Cup debut game at 38, Messi surpasses Mbappé (14), Müller (14) and Ronaldo Nazario (15).

@BullTheoryio Funny how the loudest doom predictions disappear every time the market recovers.

Over ¥18,590,000,000,000 ($112 BILLION) added to Japan's stock market as the NIKKEI recovered +1.3% from today's low.