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SMB Turnaround Guy
191 posts

SMB Turnaround Guy
@turnaroundsguy
Turnaround and special situations investor rebuilding American SMBs one deal at a time. If there’s a path forward, let’s find it.
New York, NY เข้าร่วม Aralık 2017
321 กำลังติดตาม494 ผู้ติดตาม

Not really. This actually isn't even that heavy-handed compared to what the government has done in the past. The government can, has, and should be able to redirect private industry to protect national security.
1. 1942 - fed created the War Production Board (WPB) that could force private manufacturing of scarce inputs for WWII
2. 1950 - fed created the Defense Production Act (DPA) to make private biz prioritize defense contracts for the Korean War and Cold War
3. 1973 - Emergency Petroleum Allocation Act (EPAA) allowed the exec branch to control how oil was sold
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If true, we’ve altered the fabric of our nation.
Katrina Manson@KatrinaManson
SCOOP: The Pentagon has formally notified Anthropic that it’s deemed the artificial intelligence company and its products a risk to the US supply chain, according to a senior defense official. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Anyone with a keyboard can tear down, judge, and heckle. Only the strong can build and praise.
The world needs your positivity.
If the x algorithm actually shifts to only rewarding negative engagement, opening this app will become a dreadful experience. This will push away the life-loving good voices worth being around, and leave only trolls and ghouls to wallow in their collective misery. That is not a “commons” I think is worth stooping one’s self down for.
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Sometimes I ponder becoming an X account that posts nothing but negative stuff non-stop. All the cool kids are doing it, so why not?
I think DMX said it best in his album "Rough Riders Anthem Volume 4":
"Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player,
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,
And then is heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing."
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At @HoldCoConf yesterday I met 6 people under 45 who own 100% of $10m+ EBITDA boring biz holding companies. Unbelievable roster, the quiet young legends of the ETA model.
Also had fun chatting e-comm turnarounds with @kelceylehrich
HoldCo Conference@HoldCoConf
Hitting the slopes a few times between sessions? Must be HoldCo Conference. #holdcoconf
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I read a report this morning that layoffs in January 2026 have been the worst since 2009.
Brutal.
I feel horrible for the careers and families affected by this.
I also feel strongly that this is a big wakeup call.
Unless you're building for yourself you will always be at the mercy of corporate earnings, AI trends, and office politics.
That's why I continue to be excited about the ETA trend and am honored by how many folks trust me to help them break their corporate chains through business acquisition and ownership.
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@marcusmclayton @Nads_Shariff Really beautiful @marcusmclayton
How much do you charge for this whole process?
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Excited to share the design work we did for @Nads_Shariff's Window & Glass company
Introducing: Top Notch Windows
⬇️⬇️⬇️

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This chart explains why business ownership is so hard. In 2026, SMBs have 3 options:
1. Grow through product innovation and tech/AI efficiency
2. Sell to a buyer who will do #1
3. Get pushed out
The US economy now rewards scale, tech enablement, and specialization. Many 1-49 employee businesses are under-resourced, under-capitalized, or both.
Also, a hidden driver here is the capital vacuum for stressed SMBs. When trouble hits, they’re shut out of capital markets and left only with vampiric MCAs. This pressure is accelerating as COVID-era rescue financing comes due.
Restructuring__@Restructuring__
Great start from Apollo on the bifurcation of the job market
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@ConnorAbene Counterpoint. If your margins are too high compared to industry benchmark, that could indicate you’re leaving material top line on the table. Need to do an optimization equation to find the right balance of margin shrinkage in exchange for more, still profitable throughput
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@sourcesandmuses Following. Let us know what you settle on. I have a similar situation.
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A recurring pattern in elite founders/operators: maniacal focus + credible aggression.
Neil Mehta says it best in his interview with @patrick_oshag.
Focus isn’t “working hard.” It’s choosing the one thing that matters most and saying no to everything else.
Credible aggression is what separates ambition from fantasy: clear sequencing, proper resourcing, and explicit tradeoffs.
The best people pick a constraint, swarm it, and move to the next one only after the first breaks.
This is why some teams look “lucky.” They’re not lucky; they’re disciplined and relentless.

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@blueprintsmb22 If the plastic bag man don’t know, who knows??
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@turnaroundsguy ha no idea. i don't pretend to be an expert on microplastics
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People hear “bankruptcy” and think death. Pros hear “bankruptcy” and think surgery.
The illness = insolvency (can't pay debts as they come due)
The emergency room = chapter 11 bankruptcy (reorganize and emerge)
The morgue = chapter 7 liquidation (shut down and fire sale)
Restructuring is trying to save the patient, not bury it!
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@the_P_God There is a generation defining distressed play in the alcohol space to be done in 2026. We’re on the scent. Cheers 🍻
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Situation A the PG will continue to be held by the lender because the loan is still outstanding, just for a longer duration and at a cheaper rate.
Situation B is too soon to tell. The equipment/inventory is still being liquidated. The proceeds of that process may impact the aggression with which the lender goes after the PG.
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What happened to the business owners?
Did the lender go after them aggressively, personally, as well, similar to @ErikKaiser 's experience?
I understand SBA loans don't go down the nightmare route that his did, but I also understand some SBA lenders are tougher on the individuals and their PGs than others.
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When a business defaults on an SBA loan, the underwriting bank can completely change the outcome, for better or much worse.
Two real-world cases from 2025:
Scenario A: We served as restructuring advisor for an industrial laundry doing ~$20m in revenue.
The SBA lender's lawyer fought hard and was frustratingly stubborn on concessions for months, but stayed rational.
We ultimately reached a 100% consensual restructuring: amended and extended the loan on better terms than the original debt. Going concern preserved, jobs saved, the world better off.
Scenario B: We were working to invest up to $3m to fund the reorganization of a manufacturer with $25m of historical revenue.
The SBA lender did everything possible (within the law, and brushing aggressively against it) to accelerate a shutdown and liquidation.
We submitted four restructuring offers at fair market terms. Each was dismissed outright. No negotiation. No dialogue.
The business was rushed into liquidation despite clear going concern value.
Same SBA rule book, wildly different outcomes.
The lesson: An SBA loan is not inherently good or bad in distress, but the bank and their counsel can make it either a bridge or a guillotine.
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@turnaroundsguy I would love to help with some of these restructurings - I promise I’m smarter than I look and am very good at this kind of thing
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