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TW
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From the reference... it does look like Lightmatter uses $SIVE lasers?
Which is brand new information discovery and extremely positive for Sivers.
Lightmatter is a massive private leader (~$4.4B valuation back in 2024), with $TSM, $GFS, $TSEM, $AMKR, and $ASX scaling their optical program.
And Lightmatter does require a light source...
$SIVE also happens to be on the $GFS laser source suppliers alongside $LITE, so starting to put the dots together?
End users are likely your hyperscalers like $MSFT, $GOOGL (they invested), $META, etc through Lightmatter-GUC and others.
I don't think markets have priced all of this in, since all the supply chain BOM is very confidential + speculative.
But when CPO and next-gen photonic architectures scale up, volume ramp revenue will appear out of nowhere on the balance sheet.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Great find. Basically from old investor deck + fundraising amounts: Looks like Celestial has been direct customers of $SIVE. So: $MRVL is likely buying lasers direct from $SIVE now instead of through Poet (which bought Sivers lasers to package them). Since Celestial is designed around Sivers lasers originally. Marvell probably prepared to vertically integrate away packaging IP + assembly for higher margins anyway. Going direct to $MRVL is very bullish for $SIVE.
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@aleabitoreddit Bought into $SIVE near 28 sek, little late but better than never !
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Great find. Basically from old investor deck + fundraising amounts:
Looks like Celestial has been direct customers of $SIVE.
So: $MRVL is likely buying lasers direct from $SIVE now instead of through Poet (which bought Sivers lasers to package them).
Since Celestial is designed around Sivers lasers originally.
Marvell probably prepared to vertically integrate away packaging IP +
assembly for higher margins anyway.
Going direct to $MRVL is very bullish for $SIVE.
Mikael Wåhlin@Plaskpojken
Just remembered something that we dug up a couple of years ago, and it solidifies our firm belief that Sivers ( $SIVE / $SIVEF ) already has a direct connection to Celestial AI. 🚨 While retail algos panic-sold the Marvell/POET cancellation thinking the bridge was burned, smart money knows how to follow the financial footprints. Let’s look at a Sivers corporate presentation from a while back. They listed their anonymous "Optical I/O" clients (Customer B, C, and D) alongside Ayar Labs, and dropped a highly specific clue: These anonymous clients raised a combined $250 million in 2023. Now, let's look at the major Silicon Photonics networking companies that raised capital in 2023: ▪️ Lightmatter: Raised $154 million (Dec 2023). ▪️ Celestial AI: Raised $100 million (Jun 2023). $154M + $100M = $254 million. The math perfectly matches the Sivers slide. What does this mean? It proves that Sivers wasn't just blindly supplying lasers through a middleman. According to their own presentation, Celestial AI (now Marvell) and Lightmatter are their direct customers. When Marvell fires a packaging partner for breaching an NDA, the need for the physical light engine doesn't vanish. The technical "co-design" relationship between the system architect (Celestial AI) and the foundational laser foundry ($SIVE) was already established years ago. Algorithms trade headlines. Fundamental investors trade the supply chain reality. ⏳🔥 $SIVE $SIVEF #DeepTech #SiliconPhotonics #AI
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I've monitored the situation for you.
TLDR on hyperscaler capex spend (signal aside from $TSM).
From $MSFT, $AMZN, $META earnings:
Upstream semi supply chains go brrr.
$META: 2026 FY capex $115-$135B
Revised Q1 ER: $125B-$145B capex raised.
-> Higher component prices (price hikes)
-> Aggressive AI infra spending
-> Custom Model Training
$MSFT: was actually $31.9B vs ($35.29B) but due to supply chain bottlenecks, rather than lack of resources.
Still waiting for confirmation around $AMZN but their original capex projection was ~$200B from Jassy's note earlier this year.
So you can sleep easy, all the semi supply chain names still likely to keep going brr next quarter, since there's so much capex funneled into them.
Then you get the new fed chair who is gung-ho all in on AI + rate cuts, with Jerome keeping stuff chill in the back (which markets probably like)
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@JStephswolf @aleabitoreddit I’ve bought through my Wells Fargo bank , no fees on either stock you mentioned.
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@tw_crypto_ @aleabitoreddit What do you mean by this? I have my IBKR tied to my bank account, to deposit money. Is that what you mean? I’m used to using WeBull, Robinhood, Schwab, Ameritrade…
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Uh... what's with $IBKR + Portfolio Margin + Foreign Stocks?
Every single name in Asia or Europe gets slapped to 100% maintenance margin for no reason.
Just because something isn't in the US like in Korea, Europe, or Japan doesn't make it a toxic asset?
Do you guys just use prime brokers or something to get around this?
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Woah no way. $IBKR has Korean stocks now. This is going to be fun, I had a lot of ideas in mind I couldn’t long.
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@JStephswolf @aleabitoreddit If you’re in the US try buying through your bank. That’s how I got mine 🤞
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@aleabitoreddit I just got IBKR last night but waiting for funds to settle before I buy. Was also, of course, going to look at it more.
There’s a maintenance fee to buy names like SIVE and LPK? I was using Schwab but they charge $50/transaction
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Front running Serenity post by reading his comments throughout the day
This man has AURA
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
I do really like $LPK. Critical monopoly chokepoint in glass substrates… Which are used for advanced packaging and CPO. I flagged it as a potential 10x back in Jan, but thought it was a bit early. However… time seems right now? "About four years ago, we began collaborating with a semiconductor company to develop mass-production equipment for direct 3D waveguide formation," Lee said. “The customer has already installed LPKF's equipment." Maybe Samsung or SKC Absolics since this was in Korea? Seems like momentum is ramping up now though like $AEHR pre-earnings, not quite high volume (2027), but around this time felt compelling for me. During the transition from qualification/pilot -> high volume.
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I do really like $LPK.
Critical monopoly chokepoint in glass substrates…
Which are used for advanced packaging and CPO.
I flagged it as a potential 10x back in Jan, but thought it was a bit early.
However… time seems right now?
"About four years ago, we began collaborating with a semiconductor company to develop mass-production equipment for direct 3D waveguide formation," Lee said.
“The customer has already installed LPKF's equipment."
Maybe Samsung or SKC Absolics since this was in Korea?
Seems like momentum is ramping up now though like $AEHR pre-earnings, not quite high volume (2027), but around this time felt compelling for me.
During the transition from qualification/pilot -> high volume.
Nicolas@snmart
@aleabitoreddit $LPKF / $LPK positively surprised me today. It literally finished flat despite the correction across the rest of the market. There is buying pressure, and every dip is being bought
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The fact that a large correction looks like a little blip in the overall charts.
Is pretty telling for how “Serenity Stocks” performs over time?
That aside, I’m starting to think everyone’s expectations are too high.
Now if $SOI or $HPS.A are not up 10% a day people are sad. Before 15% return a year was considered very good.
Corrections like these are normal if you zoom out, even if they’re self-inflicted by US media.
Usually if something is a core component in a multi year optical supercycle… Or are backlogged by multiple years for transformers/switchgear.
It’s a lot easier to sleep at night.
Garric G. Nahapetian@garricn
@aleabitoreddit Many of your names have pulled back into a nice buying zone.
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@aleabitoreddit Thoughts on some good names to add today?
We finally got a breather from the past 20 days of constant up (which is an accomplishment on its own).
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@Gubloinvestor $SIVE market ends earlier (yesterday they closed during the lows). the 8% up was just pricing back to the current levels of $SIVEF
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A major $ASTER whale who previously accumulated 68.25M tokens ($113M worth) at $1.66 seven months ago deposited 34.62M $ASTER ($22.95M) into #Aster just 9 hours ago. The move was quickly followed by a 4.4% drop in $ASTER’s price.
It is important point to notice today is unlock of stage 4 AIRDROP and he just stake today that's we need long term believer
FYI $ASTER STAKING ABOVE 256 MILLION WORTH $167.17 Million
intel.arkm.com/explorer/entit…
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I guess... Anon finally listened?
20,000 subscribers is unreal for some random on X.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Honestly... I don't even know at this point? 0 to 155,000+ followers, 10,000 subscribers... in under a year. 900%+ year to date... Off 13+ individual stocks from $AAOI to $LITE hitting triple digits returns in 4 months. Call me aura farming Serenity Jin-woo (last post about this topic i swear, 10,000 just looks cool). Jokes aside, thanks everyone for this opportunity. I genuinely want to make a difference to the retail community. Getting tired of institutions shafting retail or seeing $2000+ paywalls so hope to bridge the gap in information discovery/synthesis.
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Pretend $SIVE, $LITE make specialized blue and red maine lobsters.
Very rare, not many people can do.
$POET steams the lobsters and prepares it in a ready-to-go container.
$MRVL buys those lobster tails, puts it together on a plate with broccoli and steak.
Then serves it at the highest price to high end customers.
Marvell is famous for serving Blue lobster tails.
But can always serve Red ones, and it’s easier to keep serving Blue that they’re used to.
And it’s also possible for the Red lobster farmer to shift to Blue lobsters with some effort, but it takes time to raise those lobsters.
But… it just so happens Marvell’s competitor Nvidia bought out all the Red Lobsters for their restaurant.
In the end, they still need those rare blue Maine lobsters. But just decided to steam it themselves.
That’s $POET and $MRVL situation. It’s likely they’ll just go buy lobsters directly since you can’t just spawn Blue lobsters.
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$SIVE now 3 sek away from previous all time highs.
This isn’t where I would be buying if you were late. Best thing to do is wait for the pull back now.
The first pull back will be the biggest. Once it does that’s your chance.
Ideally 22 Sek to add more.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Still think $SIVE is vastly undiscovered. Feels like markets are only slowly starting to realize the likely laser supplier for $AMD? The only two public laser companies were $SIVE and $LITE on the $GFS presentation by the way…. after AMD’s CPO program went the way with GFS. And $SIVE is the only one left alongside GFS on Ayar’s website after they silently removed $LITE and $MTSI from their partner section. AlChip and GUC also happen to be pretty big for hyperscaler suppliers too.. Feels like Sivers lasers are going to end up everywhere next year.
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