Yadab

The dominant systems of the future will be those that maximize useful cognition and physical production per unit of energy, and markets will oscillate violently as capital misprices this transition.

@johnarnold @robin_j_brooks two days left of 60 days limit, will congress approve after that?

@robin_j_brooks Each day that ticks by without a solution increases the expected value of the total production loss.

The fair market value of oil ticks up every day that goes by without an articulated plan for how to end the war.

This is my opinion and not investment advice.

@KobeissiLetter here is my bear case : x.com/yadab/status/2…

BREAKING: Anthropic's pre-IPO valuation has officially hit a record $1 trillion. Anthropic's implied valuation is now up +733% since October 2025, per onchain pre-IPO trading data. Pre-IPO instruments trading onchain, backed 1:1 by SPV exposure on Jupiter, are providing a real-time proxy for the company’s implied IPO valuation. Anthropic has now become the third company to exceed $1 trillion in implied valuation, joining OpenAI and SpaceX. The implied market cap of these 3 companies alone is now up to $3.7 TRILLION. We are about to witness a historic IPO run.

@DonDurrett 28. usd swap lines for usa assets?

27 reasons why gold is going higher, and the stock market is going lower. 🧐 1) Debt Bubble. This has led to fiscal dominance and a $2T deficit and $1T interest payments. 2) Fragile US Government bond market. Foreign buyers have dried up. 3) Geopolitics. The Ukraine and Iran wars have created global instability and uncertainty. The BRICS+ nations are creating an alternative to the SWIFT system for international payments. 4) Tariffs. These are essentially taxes paid by consumers, and create headwinds for the economy. 5) Inflation. The cost-of-living impact from inflation has not subsided. Plus, tariffs and oil prices are currently pushing inflation higher. Gasoline, interest rates, and inflation are all stuck at high levels. 6) Overvalued Stock Market. With a forward PE around 22 and a Buffett Indicator over 200%, the stock market is due for a crash. Dave Collum thinks it is overvalued by 200%, and that it will revert to its mean. 7) De-dollarization. Countries are swapping their dollar reserves for gold. Plus, we are seeing more trade in non-dollar currencies. 8) Employment. This clearly has weakened over the past 12 months. It now takes about 6-months to replace a job. Normally, that number is 3 months. New college graduates are having trouble finding a job. 9) Housing. The cost for a new or existing house is around $450K. Housing affordability is at historic levels. Inventory levels are rising rapidly, and a crisis is emerging. March’s existing housing sales were the second lowest on record for March. Only March of 2009 were lower. 10) Autos-Trucks. At current interest rates, the average auto-loan is around 8%. The combination of tariffs and high interest rates makes autos-trucks unaffordable. 11) ISM Data. The ISM data for manufacturing and services has been weak for years. It does not appear to be improving. 12) Office Vacancies. Since COVID, the vacancy rate for commercial real estate has been at crisis levels and does not appear to be improving. 13) Banks. The balance sheets of large banks have been a mess after interest rates rose. Delinquency rates for credit cards and commercial real estate are rising. Bankruptcies are rising. 14) Private Credit. This is a potential crisis, with several bankruptcies and gated funds. 15) AI. It has been a job killer. Wal-Mart announced it would soon be reducing jobs due to AI efficiencies. Law firms no longer need as many lawyers. That’s just one example. 16) Demographics. Baby boomers are retiring in droves each month. This reduces consumer spending and taxable income. 17) Healthcare Costs. The current inflation rate for healthcare is 8%. This is squeezing discretionary spending. 18) Political Bifurcation. Washington has become ineffective with ongoing gridlock. Both parties no longer hold the same values. This is only getting worse. 19) College Costs. Like housing, it has an affordability problem. Colleges have become extremely expensive. 20) GDP Slowing. GDP for Q1 is projected to be sub 2%. Ironically, government spending is counted as GDP when $2T is borrowed. If you subtract this $2T, then we are in a recession. 21) Retail/Restaurant Sales. K-shaped economy. We continue to see national chains go bankrupt as the consumer remains constrained. Which company goes bankrupt next? 22) Consumer Confidence. The UOM (University of Michigan) consumer confidence number is currently at an all-time low. Why? Because the consumer can’t pay its bills. 23) Trains/Trucking Volume. The volume is at recessionary levels for both. 24) Apartment Rent. Rents are dropping nationally. Why? Consumers are broke. 25) A Recession is overdue. The last recession ended in Q2 2009. Some say we had a recession in 2020, but that was the COVID crisis and was not a true recession, where you have an extended period of lost jobs and a moribund stock market. 26) Low Dividend Payout. The average is currently below 2% and half the historical norm. The MAG7 average .3%. 27) Gold Exports. The US has been exporting an average of $10B in gold every month since January 2025. This is unprecedented. Why is gold moving from West to East? One reason: the rest of the world is selling their US bonds and dollars and buying gold. This is effectively de-dollarization, and it’s picking up speed.

@great_martis the public always wants to be told and hence deliberate misinformation becomes gold standard news.

And another 😅

@CarlZha isn’t it from 90s? everyone is copying from the Russians ? 😝

Americans copying Chinese technology again

@Mr_Derivatives it could go to infinity as someone might have successfully created an one way door with the USD swap lines ? welcome to yet another asymmetric bubble along with AI 😝

$SOXX set to open up 19 days in a row. 😱

Question: How long can this “locked” system last? Fed swap lines give foreign central banks easy access to dollar liquidity during stress. This reduces the pressure for them to sell USD assets (like Treasuries or US stocks) to raise dollars — which would otherwise crash prices or spike rates. Gold has no equivalent backstop. It’s highly liquid and neutral, so it often becomes the go-to asset for raising cash without political complications. That’s why we’ve seen accelerated selling (not just trading) by some central banks in 2026 — Russia and Turkey, for example, liquidating gold to fund wars, defend currencies, or cover energy/defense costs. elements.visualcapitalist.com The swaps help “lock in” dollar assets by cushioning them, while making gold relatively more attractive for long-term diversification. But when real liquidity crunches hit, gold gets sold faster precisely because there’s no Fed-style safety net. How long can this asymmetry hold? As long as the Fed keeps providing liquidity and major holders trust the dollar system, although new geopolitical shocks or sustained wars could test it quickly.

RE: “Weaponizing USD swap lines” - last time the USD system rails were weaponized (2022 Russia FX reserves frozen), CIPS payments more than doubled in 2 years, and gold rose 3x in 4 years. Let’s watch.

@Cpt_RDubya @MPelletierCIO i guess cayman islands? but who ?

@MPelletierCIO China is still a net seller... at the end of the day, where does everything come from?

Cleanest dirty shirt

@MPelletierCIO one way door and hence clean?

@ElansFarm @Mr_Derivatives @RayDalio i like farmland, are you into farmland? dm me.

@yadab @Mr_Derivatives @RayDalio Invest in gold/silver or copper miners. Oil producers... commodities in general will do good. Especially ones that get consumed. Farmland is a great alternative but obviously alot different then buying stocks.

@great_martis problem is there is an virtual embargo which strongly discourages selling of usa assets by institutions and foreign major holders by providing them usd swaps ? that’s i figure, could be off but i don’t know basically a virtual blockade on selling?

I spy with my little 👁️something beginning with B 🫧

@Bogachan_1971 @LukeGromen the scary part is : you can buy US assets but can’t sell when needed ? how fragile is the system now?

UAE is getting swaplines.... to get USD so that it does not need to sell US stocks and bonds... BOJ constantly gets USD to be able to keep USDJPY capped at 160 when running most likely over 5% inflation now with less than 1% rates... Rest of the world will get USD swapllines as well so that they don't sell USD assets, especially South Korea.... Treasury is buying back long term debt to issue more T-bills whereas FED is buying those bills... 1720-21.....John Law's France.... not only your stock market and bond market will fall apart but your currency as well. Bessent tied the fate of US Dollar to the fate to stock and bond market.... 100%... and he has no idea what to do when tide turns... I am betting on it with my movie and will bet more in markets when time comes and it will come this year. Easiest way to benefit from this is #GOLD.... check how French livres did against gold after 1720 and multiply that becaue Bessent went global. When French had a clown like Bessent named John Law, Brits had Isaac Newton... therefore nothing happened to British Economy even though South Sea Bubble burst at the same time with Mississipi bubble. You never tie your currency to stocks and bonds.... but u never bring a clown to be your president or an execution monkey to run your Treasury. Whatever is coming is well deserved.

@Nostre_damus If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face—forever. 1984.

U.S. soldier makes $400k with insider information and gets indicted Barron Trump makes 100s of millions with insider trading on a regular basis

@WhaleInsider this is why gold is winner and Lindy.

JUST IN: Tether conducts its largest asset freeze ever, freezing $344 million USDT on TRON, with the reason still unknown - Onchain.

@great_martis told it and bought it 😝 😆 x.com/yadab/status/2…

It's called price erection in economic terms.

@CarlZha 😱 malacca getting infected by same fever? timeline is interesting 🤨

How the monsoon pattern works in Southeast Asia: When mainland Southeast Asia heats up in April, maritime Southeast Asia cools. It works in a circular pattern around the South China Sea. Pattern reverse in 6 months around Oct

This is an interesting way of saying that using recognition alone only lets you see what you already know. To go beyond that, one needs to reach higher levels of cognition — metacognition — and finally awareness. These transitions are nonlinear jumps, and that is the real challenge.