Best Ball Data Muse

381 posts

Best Ball Data Muse

@BBDataMuse

https://t.co/l0kXNYMoLa Football lover, best ball degenerate, data analyst, gamer, process truster, Philly sports fan.

Sumali Ağustos 2021

460 Sinusundan1.3K Mga Tagasunod

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Best Ball Data Muse@BBDataMuse·8 Ara

Round 2 Dashboard is now live on BBMPortfolio. - Track all your advancing teams for Week 15 - Full roster details, builds, stacks, projections - ROI calculator through the playoffs - Week 15 player exposures Great for an early read on where you stand heading into BBM Round 2.

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Best Ball Data Muse@BBDataMuse·4 Şub

Some context on the data: 2021–2025 uses BBM average ADP. 2026 uses UD pre-draft ADPs as of this morning. So- slightly different markets, but still a meaningful snapshot of the 2026 ADP landscape.

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Best Ball Data Muse@BBDataMuse·4 Şub

There are more RBs going in the first 5 rounds of 2026 best ball drafts than any year since 2021. The market is moving away from Zero-RB / Hero-RB after two straight years of early-RB builds smashing.

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Best Ball Data Muse@BBDataMuse·27 Oca

@bdelpriore2 Ayomanor wasn't too far down the list. Initial ADP: 226 > Current ADP: 211.2

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BD13@bdelpriore2·27 Oca

@BBDataMuse Shocked ayomanor isn’t on here

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Best Ball Data Muse@BBDataMuse·27 Oca

Biggest ADP movers in the first ~36 hours of pre-draft Underdog best ball. Love seeing where the market disagrees with UD's initial ranks, even this early.

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Best Ball Data Muse@BBDataMuse·27 Oca

@westydoggy Good callouts- neither were in UD's initial top 240 which is why they didn't make the list. KC Concepcion: 151.9 ADP Nick Singleton: 186.1 ADP

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Westydoggy@westydoggy·27 Oca

@BBDataMuse KC Concepcion and Nick Singleton

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Best Ball Data Muse@BBDataMuse·16 Ara

@Diablo_II I wrote down these ideas for the website right after BBM5 ended last year. Not everything made the final cut, but looking back, I’m really proud of how much of this vision became real. Incredibly grateful for everyone's support. Super excited to keep building.

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Best Ball Data Muse@BBDataMuse·16 Ara

With Round 2 of BBM wrapping up, BBMPortfolio.com is done for the season. @Diablo_II has you covered from here. Huge thank you to everyone who used the site and shared feedback. More tools and content coming in the offseason. Good luck to everyone still alive!

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Best Ball Data Muse@BBDataMuse·15 Ara

Still wouldn’t trade it for the world. Yesterday was the most fun sweat I’ve had since last year’s Week 15. Looking like I’ll advance 3/31 entries. Honestly just happy to still be alive heading into Week 16.

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Best Ball Data Muse@BBDataMuse·15 Ara

Yesterday was a reminder how cruel best ball is, and how hard BBM is to win. You can draft well all summer and still lose to someone who just loves Kyle Pitts and Trevor Lawrence. 1,600+ people max entered this year. Over 1,000 of them won’t have a single finals team.

Best Ball Data Muse@BBDataMuse

TLDR: Predicting Week 15–17 outcomes months in advance is impossible. The real path is: – Draft structurally sound, correlated teams – AND advance as many as possible Then get lucky, REALLY lucky. Advance rate isn’t everything, but it is the most repeatable edge in best ball.

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Best Ball Data Muse@BBDataMuse·15 Ara

After the early window, the median simulated cutline to advance to Round 3 is 160.3 The 90th percentile cutline is 170.0 If you're projected above 170, you're in good shape. Projections on the site are updated through the 1pm games.

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Best Ball Data Muse@BBDataMuse·14 Ara

Projections & sims on the site have been updated to reflect early window inactives. I'll update actuals and rerun advancing sims three times today: after the early window, after the late window, and after SNF. Happy sweating!

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Best Ball Data Muse@BBDataMuse·13 Ara

@JerLevine @JewishMcCaffrey @Underdog @Diablo_II Appreciate that, Jeremy. I'm definitely open to exploring. I reached out to TJ to connect more directly. Thanks again!

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Jeremy Levine@JerLevine·12 Ara

@JewishMcCaffrey @Underdog @Diablo_II @BBDataMuse We would absolutely love to. @Diablo_II @BBDataMuse if you’re open to exploring please lmk!

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Jewish McCaffrey@JewishMcCaffrey·12 Ara

Respectfully, @Underdog. Do the right thing and hire @Diablo_II and/or @BBDataMuse for Best Ball and Draft Games.

Underdog Drafts@UnderdogDrafts

Drafts is ramping up our dev team, hiring a Senior Software Engineer for iOS We'd love to hire directly from the community for this role! If you or someone you know loves draft games & wants to shape our future, please apply & mention your UD username job-boards.greenhouse.io/underdogfantas…

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Best Ball Data Muse@BBDataMuse·12 Ara

Seeing a lot takes that drafters should've thrown strategy out the window and drafted more Kyle Pitts this summer, and I agree. We also should've: - bought Apple in 1990 - loaded up on Bitcoin in 2010 - faded every player who tore their ACL Weird how nobody did that.

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Best Ball Data Muse@BBDataMuse·12 Ara

@JustinHerzig Using conditional advance probabilities, Kyle Pitts teams project to make up ~47% of BBM semifinal teams right now, despite being rostered on only ~9% of quarterfinal entries.

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Justin Herzig@JustinHerzig·12 Ara

Anyone have guesses for what percent of teams in the BBM semis will have Kyle Pitts?

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Best Ball Data Muse@BBDataMuse·12 Ara

Entry advance probabilities on the site are now updated to reflect "the Kyle Pitts Game". Finished players use actual scores, remaining Sunday/Monday players are simulated. Here’s my best Kyle Pitts team (I only have two).

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Best Ball Data Muse@BBDataMuse·12 Ara

@ldrumhiller Good catch- you're right. FIELD% was accidentally pulling advance rate instead of field exposure. It's fixed now. Appreciate the callout!

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Logan Drumhiller@ldrumhiller·12 Ara

@BBDataMuse Hey, love the tool! Just a heads up that on the Round 2 Dashboard, it is showing a players advance rate in the FIELD % column in the exposure reports. I was manually doing comparisons of my exposure vs the field for TNF and noticed something seemed off. EXP % column looks right.

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Best Ball Data Muse@BBDataMuse·8 Ara

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Best Ball Data Muse@BBDataMuse·12 Ara

@FFMichaelK Love this. One-week variance hits a lot harder than people expect.

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Michael K@FFMichaelK·11 Ara

Mentally bracing yourself for this week’s results is pretty important if you’re new to best ball or especially to volume drafting The math is *heavily* against you in every contest and it’s gonna be a bloodbath Saw a lot of ppl super discouraged/learn BB isn’t for them last yr

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Best Ball Data Muse@BBDataMuse·12 Ara

@SenBonaparte Yep- tomorrow I'll drop in actuals from the Thursday night game and simulate the remaining games. I'll update again during Sunday's game and once before MNF.

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NFL@SenBonaparte·12 Ara

@BBDataMuse I love this, will the adv probs update during the week like during or after Thursday night etc ?

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Best Ball Data Muse@BBDataMuse·12 Ara

Really great new features from @Diablo_II. Massive upgrade from manually scanning pods.

PD@Diablo_II

First batch of pod updates: -Overall Week 15 Leaderboards -Roster views with scores -Exposures page, allowing to view and sort players by your exposure and pod exposure

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Tuklasin

@bdelpriore2 @westydoggy @Diablo_II @JerLevine @JewishMcCaffrey @Underdog @JustinHerzig @elonmusk