Mark 🇦🇺

@jamesdean0770 @_warrenhogan @LouiChristopher Yes - but how and when to restore - and it’s just another electricity fiddle

@_warrenhogan @LouiChristopher Cut in fuel excise? 25% cut in fuel could help a lot in this situation?

We are already starting to see retailers across a range of segments talk of price hikes in the days ahead. Food is immediately exposed to transportation costs. The March monthly CPI could be pretty big and the June Quarter CPI will be big. Markets around the world are interpreting this as an inflationary shock. Markets in Australia are starting to eye off a 5% cash rate over the year ahead. Six months ago the average economist in Australia thought the cash rate was going to 3%. That’s a big reality check for debt holders. If this continues expect the yield curve to flatten as the prospects of a major economic downturn materialise. Asset markets holding up remarkably well so far.

History in the making...

Remember when petrol was 160c/L? That was three weeks ago. Today it's 237c/L at the wholesale terminal gate - and diesel is at 282c. 📈 The Hormuz closure is hitting Australian hip pockets hard, and it won't stop at the bowser. 🧾⛽ #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

I'll be direct: I can't construct a compelling economic justification for running population growth at the current pace. That volumetric debate deserves to be had honestly. But immigration is not the cause of the housing crisis. Decades of visible, foreseeable demand have simply exposed a supply system that was never allowed to function properly. Fix the planning system, and Australia can absorb its population growth. Leave it broken, and no immigration target will solve the problem. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon #more" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">markthegraph.blogspot.com/2026/03/why-ho…

Housing is a supply problem, not a demand problem. Yes, Australia leads the world in population growth via immigration – and I can't think of a compelling economic justification for that pace. But that demand has been visible and consistent for decades, so a well-functioning market should clear it. Worker immigration is roughly supply-neutral anyway – adding demand and productive capacity in equal measure. Student immigration is different, adding demand without productive capacity, but it's a significant export earning industry. The real failure is planning, zoning and NIMBY local governments that add delays and cost, strangling the supply response. Don't blame the people needing homes – ask why nobody can get a planning permit. If a city consistently can't build enough supermarkets despite decades of population growth, you don't blame the people for eating food – you ask why nobody can get a planning permit.

@Mark_Graph @AvidCommentator Australia has never had more housing. It must be an oversupply of people wanting a house.

"He (Albanese) then said shortages were a "demand issue not a supply issue". Now apply that to housing, clown... skynews.com.au/australia-news…

@jkmccrann True

@Mark_Graph You know, you don't have to use the colours the candidates use - just silly to have orange vs. organge in those charts when there is no red this time, or purple for that matter, or even yellow.

The betting market sees the Farrer by-election as primarily a One Nation v Independent contest. The Coalition are in 3rd and 4th place. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

@peter_tulip The core issue is that the gains are concentrated (exporters, shareholders) while the pain is dispersed (every household and business that uses energy).

the effect of higher oil prices on Australia's national income is substantially offset by higher LNG export earnings.

Elec & gas prices set to rise sharply as the Strait of Hormuz closes 🔥 Asia LNG (JKM) has doubled since the closure. Aus exports 83% of its gas – domestic prices follow international ones. Ironically, US unaffected. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

Aussie equities looking for stagflation...

If dramatically more Middle East energy production infrastructure get's destroyed, one wonders how supply arrangements will evolve. Would it be purely about top dollar or would it come down to alliances. If you are my friend you get what you need, if you are not....

*** HELP WANTED *** Does anyone know of a free daily data source for either the Oman or Dubai benchmarks?

Port Stanvac closed 2009 under Rudd. Clyde closed 2012 under Gillard. That's two when Labor was in power. All were commercial decisions by oil companies regardless of who was in government. All were allowed by both sides of politics. The strategic importance of supply chain security was realised with COVID. The Fuel Security Act was enacted to address these concerns.

@Mark_Graph Nope all closed by the LNP. Looking after it up

Australia has gone from importing crude to refine domestically, to just importing the finished fuel directly. We are almost entirely supply-chain dependent on Asian refineries now. 1/2 🧵 #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

@Margare12740329 Port Stanvac (SA) closed when Rudd was PM and Clyde (Sydney) closed when Gillard was PM. However, none of the six recent closures were government decisions. All were commercial decisions by multinational oil companies based on profitability compared to larger Asian refineries.

@Mark_Graph Nope it was the LNP.

@verticalc @Margare12740329 ❓

@Mark_Graph @Margare12740329 And people think they suddenly make sense now?

The $70 WTI/Oman price gap won't close quickly – arbitrage requires some certainty before rerouting supply chains and reconfiguring refineries for different crude grades. Nobody makes that investment if Hormuz might reopen next month. You'd need 3-6 months of sustained closure before structural shifts begin.

@AustRepublican Fair point. Australia buys primarily from Asian refineries (South Korea, Singapore, Japan), so Oman/Dubai are the relevant benchmarks for the price of oil in Australia – at $167 and $136. So the situation is indeed worse than the Brent (European) or WTI (US) benchmarks suggest.

@dgcpol I have no evidence, but my guess is political pressure. The government needed a Budget narrative that was good for attacking inflation and spending more money. Iran now gives them cover to line up with external macroeconomic analysis without losing face.

@Mark_Graph Hi mate. Any thoughts on why Treasury was out of step like that?

In saying productivity is down, Chalmers just revised down Australia's economic speed limit. Treasury was the outlier at 2.5% potential. The RBA is at 2.0%. Most economists: 2.0-2.2%. While the war in Iran gets blamed, the productivity slump is the real driver of persistent inflation. afr.com/policy/economy… #ausbiz #ausecon #auspol

Blaming LNP alone for refinery closures is lazy and factually wrong. Closures spanned Labor & LNP govts – driven by economics: ageing plants couldn't compete with larger Asian refineries. Multinationals (Caltex, BP, ExxonMobil, Shell) made commercial calls. And it was the Coalition that introduced the Fuel Security Act in 2021. Both parties ignored warnings for 20 years.

@Mark_Graph Thanks to the LNP 6 of the 8 refineries where all closed during their 9 years of hopeless government.