@JohnMccholl @dwainmcfarland Seeing this pretty late but I recently made comps based on volume efficiency and draft capital. Certainly a mixed bag.
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Max Adam
644 posts
Max Adam
@MaxAdamFF
Statistics Major at Colby College | Half of @top1fantasy on Instagram
Waterville, ME Sumali Eylül 2024
94 Sinusundan47 Mga Tagasunod
@dwainmcfarland I would love to see some analysis on how little or much we should care about the relatively low volume when it comes to these kinds of stats. How much can YPRR be impacted by, say, one super long flea flicker TD?
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Luther Burden on non-screen plays as a rookie:
Yards per route: 2.35 (great)
Targets per route: 21% (good)
Fantasy points per route: 0.43 (good)
Average target depth: 11.8 yards
Yes, he was aided by screens (26%), but he demonstrated more to his game.
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@KyleM_FF @FantasyPtsData Yeah I draft Pickens. Maybe I’m a Dak hater 😂
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It’s one of those things where I have this nagging feeling that neither has overall WR1 upside so long as the other is fully healthy
But it’s also a comparable situation to Chase and Higgins
Cowboys will remain a pass-heavy team and a top-5 offense so there should be enough grub to go around
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Over George Pickens ceiling stretch of play last season (Weeks 4-12), he flashed the best WR to QB connection in the league with Dak Prescott (per @FantasyPtsData)
- 148.2 Passer Rating when Targeted (WR1)
- 79.4% Catch Rate and 86.8% Catchable Target Rate (1st among WRs with a 13.0+ aDOT, by a wide margin)
He was also among the league's most efficient receivers and a top-tier fantasy football producer
- 24.6% Target Share (WR13)
- 110.0 Receiving YPG (WR1)
- 3.39 YPRR (WR3)
- 0.172 1D/RR (WR2)
- 22.4 FPG (WR2)
The Cowboys went 4-2-1 in that stretch, averaging 30.8 PPG (would rank 1st in the league)
- I don't view this receiving room as a WR1/WR2 situation, but rather a fluid 1a/1b order, and Pickens deserves to be paid
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'Strong possibility' Ravens add WR at 14? dlvr.it/TS2XBL
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Max Adam nag-retweet
“The thing with Travis Hunter, is that, Parker Washington is better than him.”
@CDCarter13 and @RotoPat on a potential full-time DB role for Hunter:
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A little ship chasing appetizer...
nick@xedgelin
Going live on YouTube at 6:15. - drafting UDFAs on @Underdog (can I draft all 25 in one stream?) - talking So You Think Can Tout - talk any type of fantasy football Anyone who has submitted an entry to @peteroverzet feel free to drop by and chat!
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Max Adam nag-retweet
@peteroverzet Will be discussing this and more with the man himself for tomorrow’s ’Meet the Tout House’
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rickadoozle came in hot to the bash last week
x.com/griff384/statu…
Rickadoozle@griff384
So You Think You Can Tout (2025): Brown Bob Dylan Put me in coach @peteroverzet
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Max Adam nag-retweet
@peteroverzet! Not only do I think that I can Tout, but my boy Jonathon Brooks (@2brookss) thinks so too
- My official application for the "So You Think You Can Tout" show:
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@DynastyZack 17ppr ppg in 20 games without one of ajb or goedert since ajb trade. If he can sustain that for 17 games this year think he’s a smash in r4 and a solid pick in r3.
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I think people are forgetting AJ Brown is 28… and Devonta Smith is 27… hes not this young upcoming stud hes been in the league for years at this point hes a vet
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Okay, this is bad
I'm on the phone with my publicist, and she's telling me to change my name and join a monastery???
Scott Barrett@ScottBarrettDFB
I am getting absolutely destroyed right now by the @MatthewBerryTMR army 😭😭 I have no idea how bad this trade offer was that my co-manager sent (@tjcalkins), but surely it couldn’t have been bad enough to deserve this
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@ffdataroma "Oh miserable me my 'unique' passion of regurgitating pff data on twitter has been infringed"
GIF
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Would normally not post something like this, but this really rubbed me the wrong way
> elite drafters guy randomly accuses me of “copying his framework” (whatever that means)
> doubles down after pretending to not care, claims both me and the Fantasy Points team are copying his work (?)
> tell him I have no interest in copying anything he does (absolute slop with no value to be blunt, didn’t say that ofc)
> gets upset and blocks me while still not having any actual reason for the original message
Some people really think the world revolves around them lol
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@ffdataroma Yeah its hard to encapsulate analytics into one thing without using someone's model. I just wanted to emphasize your point that using capital as a proxy for film is a good idea.
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@MaxAdamFF Yea def more even there but was more referring to R1 names listed and also metric only using one metric. A guy like Aiyuk was a big film>analytics stand. Guys like Ruggs and Burks also had a lot of other positive to strong indicators (breakout, early declare, etc)
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Max Adam nag-retweet
The overall list for all rounds is a little more balanced but thats because the LZ film grades are highly correlated to draft capital.
Film > stats:
DK Metcalf
Josh Palmer
Jonathan Mingo
Darius Slayton
Matthew Golden
DaeSean Hamilton
Van Jefferson
Adonai Mitchell
Jack Bech
DJ Chark
Stats > film:
Puka Nacua
Jaelon Darden
Ricky White III
John Ursua
John Hightower
Tez Johnson
Cedrick Wilson Jr.
Marquez Stevenson
Richie James
Dazz Newsome
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@MaxAdamFF This is prob cherry picking a bit but also definitely not suggesting anyone shouldn’t be rooted in data (primarily at that)
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Max Adam nag-retweet
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@JakobSanderson That’s fair. I guess your original tweet was pretty nuanced since Luther is strong in both areas. I just think the focus on age adjusted market share metrics have dominated thinking so much that other considerations have been neglected and unnecessarily overrated some players.
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@MaxAdamFF The goal isn't to pick the "best" metric, it's to pick the best player. And the best way to pick the best player is to look at the totality of the data rather than picking one metric
Why argue between YPTPA v FPRR when we can look at both?
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GIF
David J. Gautieri@GuruFantasyWrld
I’m not saying Omar Cooper Jr. is Luther Burden III… I’m just saying… BURDEN – 6’0”/206, 4.41 40 COOPER – 6’0”/199, 4.42 40 BURDEN – 2.32 career YPRR COOPER – 2.47 career YPRR BURDEN – 7.3 YAC/reception COOPER – 6.6 YAC/reception BURDEN – .336 MTF/reception COOPER – .313 MTF/reception BURDEN – above a 50% contested success-rate in 2/3 seasons COOPER – above a 50% contested success-rate in 3/3 seasons BURDEN – 6.43 NFL.com Grade COOPER – 6.39 NFL.com Grade BURDEN – Projected Late-RD1/Early-RD2 COOPER – Projected Late-RD1/Early-RD2 People said Luther Burden was “slot-only” – despite the fact he ran 85% of his routes out-wide as a true freshman. They said he was a “screen merchant” – despite the fact he gained over 60% of his 1,200 yards as a sophomore on passes 10+ yards downfield. They said he couldn’t run routes – despite the fact he beat Man Coverage at an above-average rate (67th percentile, via @RecepPerception). That he “only had 1 good year of production” – despite the fact he averaged 2.25+ YPRR in *multiple* seasons. Now – care to take a guess what they’re saying about Omar Cooper Jr? That he’s “slot-only” – despite the fact he ran over 80% of his routes out-wide each of his first 2 seasons. That he’s a “screen-merchant” – despite the fact he gained over 55% of his yardage in 2025 on passes 10+ yards downfield. That he can’t run routes – despite the fact he beats Man Coverage at an above-average rate (60th percentile, via @RecepPerception). That he “only had 1 good year of production” – despite the fact he averaged 2.25+ YPRR in *multiple* seasons… SOUND FAMILIAR ⁉️
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