Andy R

@QuantifiedStrat Is there out of sample data used for these tests?

@MebFaber @verdadcap About 15 years overdue

The value trade has already started...did you notice? via @verdadcap

@sentimentrader Looks like smart money was pessimistic for the rally June to October......

SentimenTrader Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence (2026-03-12) • Smart Money: 0.65 • Dumb Money: 0.45

@danielisdizzy 2 of the worst market predictors. Must be time to sell.

Tom Lee says the market will bottom this month. He also believes higher oil prices could actually be bullish for U.S. equities. If investors start worrying about slowing global growth, they may rotate into growth stocks — many of which are concentrated in the U.S. (MAG 7, software). Cathie Wood sees the current pullback as a major opportunity to buy highly volatile stocks. While the S&P 500 is down ~5%, many individual stocks are down 50% or more. Whether the market bottoms this month or not, one thing is clear: The market is starting to offer massive opportunities.

@StevenBartlett Given herself the name "Glucose Goddess" didn't ring any alarm bells for you?

Does a glass of orange juice really have the same amount of sugar as soda? During my conversation with 'Glucose Goddess' Jessie Inchauspé, she unpacked what actually happens in your body when you drink juice... Whole fruit contains fibre and water, which slow how quickly sugar enters your bloodstream. But when you juice it, that fibre disappears. What you’re left with is mostly water and sugar, and she pointed out that a glass of orange juice contains roughly the same amount of sugar as a soda - around 25 grams! Do you still see juice as healthy?

@TRobinsonNewEra How can anyone listen to that and see an issue with it? "Let's get more women in the defence forces" Lets solve any issue that arose in the past that might make that a challenge" Sounds great !

Defence Minister of Ireland, Helen McEntee, says her “priority” is to "diversify" the Defence Forces in "every way possible," They fought tooth and nail to get the British out and are now replacing them with the third world.

@ReginaDo Sounds great. I hope that the right people have been consulted on this.

Music to my ears. Ireland needs to lead the way on this in Europe with a new, easily accessible, bureacracy-free Savings and Investment Account or ISA for Irish people to build financial security

@IrishmanIRL Romani

"He was born in Romania, came to Ireland in 1997 when he was 18 years old and has never worked because he has no experience of work" Romanian scammer faces up to 5 years in prison for deception

@michaellistman What I've experienced and tested, selling 0DTE put credit spreads at low VIX levels <15, typically has a lower EV compared with 15-20+. The tail ends 25+ also, tend to see poor results. However, this is assuming a stop loss.

The contention that "VIX is riskier to short near the lows" has always bothered me as being inaccurate from a quantitative perspective so here's what I did today (and the results confirmed my view) The parameters of this study are as follows: >Analyze $VIX in 5 point ranges >10+ point gain = adverse risk event >Looked at 10 trading sessions following EOD print (feel free to suggest alternative parameters if you think they'd be more representative of actual risk of loss) These results clearly show that your actual RISK of loss decreases with lower index levels. The 4.3% result for the 30-35 range might throw some off so I'll add some color to this: VIX above 30 is a very rare condition, venturing above only around 4x per year, so once that level is reached, getting to 40 is much more difficult. VIX values of 35+ are very very rare (as noted by their occurrence %) and their 10 point moves are less of a stretch than from a sub-15 starting point. So the next time someone tells you that you should never short $UVXY or $UVIX at the low end of a VIX range, send them this 😺

@Quant_Kurtis Out of sample testing?

A number of years ago I created a 'risk meter'. 10 months ago I made it public with all inputs exposed. This is how it performed in 2025 (see chart). 🔸The risk meter is a weekly reading between 0 - 4. 🔸2 or less is invest. 3 or 4 is a signal to hedge. If you want the risk meter and are a P123 subscriber, send me a DM and I'll forward you the link. No cost. The inputs are related to market volatility (implied and actual), market breadth moves but also the speed of such a move, as well as a few combined measures on credit risk. It isn't perfect and it isn't meant to out-perform. The goal was to help me know when I might want to hedge (e.g. perhaps add some put insurance). This isn't advice and do with this what you will.

@elerianm Choppy

A one-word challenge for you, please: If you had to pick just one word to describe the global economy in 2025, and one for 2026, what would they be? (FWIW, my picks are resilience for 2025, and dispersion for 2026.) #economy #markets #finance

@Mark_J_Henry @cooper_m @EurobarometerEU If you work in research you know that 98% of no sample would agree to a statement. Highly improbable. "27% of respondents report that on most days their anxiety is so severe they cannot function" - are these people satisfied with their life? aware.ie/national-surve…

Irish people have never been more satisfied with their lives. 98% of us are fairly (51%) or very (47%) satisfied - the highest of any EU country last year according to Eurobarometer. 🇮🇪 Listen to me discuss Ireland's positive progress with @cooper_m here open.spotify.com/episode/4Nvy0K…

@commonsenseplay CAPE as been significantly under-predicting performance for the last 10 years. It's a signal, but doesnt have the same predictive power as previous.

WHY YOU’RE GOING TO LOSE MONEY ON STOCKS THIS DECADE! Legendary investor Howard Marks puts it bluntly: “When you buy the S&P 500 at a 23x P/E, your 10-yr annualized return has always fallen between +2% and –2%, IN EVERY CASE, EVERY CASE.” Today the market sits at a 25x P/E. Add inflation… and your “returns” are negative. So what’s Marks doing? Buying bonds! During the 2000–2002 crash: - Long-term Treasuries: +40–45% - NASDAQ: –78% History doesn’t repeat perfectly, but it rhymes. We might only be in the first inning of the next pullback. I’m already reallocating heavily into long-term bond ETFs like $TLT and $ZFL.TO, and I think they’ll outperform for years.

@MebFaber "Cheap" doesn't = good. If we add a qualifier that the market is cheap relative to expected 10 YR forward valuation (with R Squared >0.6?)...... i.e. X Country is at -1 standard deviation away from 10 YR CAPE mean with an R Squared of 0.6+ Thoughts?

Lots of people** see global value stocks up 50%+ this year and are wondering if they missed the boat. Is it too late? The green line is the valuation of those stocks, trading at a CAPE of 13...barely a blip. It's still in the shadows of the blue line, trying to break all-time highs... **Actually, no one cares about foreign value stocks, but it makes the tweet read better...at what point will the animal spirits and FOMO kick in?

@TheOneLanceB Academic vs Reality Often books tell you ~0.5-1% per trade because XYZ.. People chuck 50k into an account and think they can handle -500 per trade...... Ultimately, most people cannot. I needed to start tiny, experience the pain/ ups and downs.. and then increase gradually.

Making a video on risk management. What questions do you have? What areas of it do you want covered?

@L__Macfarlane Life is unfair. That doesn't mean you get to play judge, jury and executionary.

Inheritance tax isn’t “theft” from those who have built a “successful life and legacy”. It is a tax on those receiving a windfall of unearned wealth. It’s not “immoral” unless you think people’s life chances should be determined not by what they do — but who their parents are.

@JeffNippard Why not switch to plant based now? The shift takes some consideration, but there is growing evidence in favour of replacing animal proteins with plant to reduce all cause mortality.

I’m eating lab grown meat the second it’s mass market ready. It’s biologically identical to animal meat and will reduce suffering more than any technology in the history of our planet as long as enough people switch over from factory farmed meats.

@thejournal_ie Comparing to other countries is a fruitless task. If you like the prices in Poland, go to Poland. For every gimme there is a gotcha.

The price of a pint in Ireland is 205% of the EU average thejournal.ie/price-of-a-pin…

@ZubyMusic Reiterate. Most of the time iterate is fine.

What is a word that is used incorrectly MORE often than it is used correctly?

@louiseburne_ Well done.

I'm the journalist Ruth is talking about We decry when things like this happen in the US. You can agree or disagree with people, but we have a free press in this country and I'll defend any Press Council members' right to ask politicians questions