Alex

3.2K posts

Alex

Alex

@buffetsalpha

Sumali Nisan 2016
91 Sinusundan131 Mga Tagasunod
Alex
Alex@buffetsalpha·
@poxesfoxes Will be very interesting to see how Europe reacts to this. They are by far the hardest hit by the consequences of this war. Will they finally come to their senses and thaw relations with Russia? Or will they continue to follow the US to their doom?
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Angelo Plume
Angelo Plume@poxesfoxes·
If only. The US is making its vassals even more dependent on America, and will then sell them crude at inflated prices, while invoking some nonsense or other to prevent anyone from trading with 🇨🇳 or 🇷🇺 No one has the guts to stand up to them meaningfully
Angelo Plume tweet media
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Alex
Alex@buffetsalpha·
@ActAccordingly Type of stock you buy at 50 PE and sell at 10 PE. Few understand.
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PAA Research
PAA Research@ActAccordingly·
If you're wondering about the action in $MU today, I think you should look to Druckenmiller's sage advice on chemical stocks. If you don't look at the $MU print as anything but a commodity producer benefitting from a supply/demand imbalance you're probably not going to do well here. I don't make the rules, he does: "Chemical stocks, however, behave quite differently. In this industry, the key factor seems to be capacity. The ideal time to buy the chemical stocks is after a lot of capacity has left the industry and there’s a catalyst that you believe will trigger an increase in demand. Conversely, the ideal time to sell these stocks is when there are lots of announcements for new plants, not when the earnings turn down. The reason for this behavioral pattern is that expansion plans mean that earnings will go down in two to three years, and the stock market tends to anticipate such developments."
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Alex
Alex@buffetsalpha·
@joolsd That's because US has perfected and pushed the concept of "democracy" to it's logical conclusion. Politicians as nothing more than jesters for the masses to consume. Empty suits for the lobby groups and interests who fund them, who are in turn educated and who hold real power.
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Alex
Alex@buffetsalpha·
@ssphinxe Comparing it to old Soviet or Chinese central planning would do it a disservice. This time around they are actually competent and achieving their goals through layer upon layer of financial engineering. But you can only squeeze vol so much before it eventually finds a crack.
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sφinx
sφinx@ssphinxe·
This admin has been treating the entire stock market as one giant shitcoin and been engaged in some of the most sophisticated market engineering we've seen yet. “Free market” vs “planned economy” doesn't capture it, we're in uncharted territory.
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Alex
Alex@buffetsalpha·
@DagoSupremacy Because Israel wants it and because this administration is their last chance to ever get it. That's it. There's no grand geopolitical plan, there's no justification. It's pure ethnic hatred, except the extremists are in Tel Aviv.
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Dago Supremacy
Dago Supremacy@DagoSupremacy·
I really don’t like the whole war with Iran thing. I’m not a “panican” or anti-Trump now but man it’s really lame. Still don’t understand the point…still don’t understand the objective.
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Alex
Alex@buffetsalpha·
@YearOfTheKraken That's always been the case. The only crazy religious nutjobs who want blow up the planet are in Tel Aviv.
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Sensei Kraken Zero
Sensei Kraken Zero@YearOfTheKraken·
Many people wouldn't have liked it when I called Iran a rational actor. But consider their actions so far. -Did not close Strait of Hormuz until there was an existential threat to their country -Did not attack critical energy infrastructure until theirs was targeted -They have once again threatened that they will destroy the regional energy infrastructure if theirs is attacked, prompting Trump to announce no more of Iran's will be targeted -They have demonstrated the capability to destroy the entire energy infrastructure of the Gulf and yet, they are holding themselves back. Compare this with Israel and USA's actions so far: -Decapitation strike against Iran while negotiations were progressing well (Oman confirmed this) and a ceasefire was in place. -Targeted Iran's energy infrastructure knowing fully well that there will be retaliation. -Initiated a war they have no means of winning without plunging the entire world into an apocalypse. Which side is the rational actor here?
Sensei Kraken Zero@YearOfTheKraken

Because: 1. Iran is a rational actor. 2. The threat to close the Strait of Hormuz was the enforcement of their red line. 3. Their red line was crossed [regime change war], hence, they shut down the Strait. What would others have done? They would have done exactly what US-Israel are doing now. It's also the reason nothing can be done about it now.

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Alex
Alex@buffetsalpha·
@zerohedge Lies upon lies upon lies. Israel's only goal is ground invasion and they won't stop until they achieve it.
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zerohedge
zerohedge@zerohedge·
ISRAELI ATTACK ON IRAN'S SOUTH PARS GAS FIELD WAS COORDINATED WITH U.S. BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BE REPEATED, THREE ISRAELI OFFICIALS SAY
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Alex@buffetsalpha·
@seanmdav Anyone who thinks this statement is anything but an escalatory threat against Iran is not right in the head. It has nothing to do with curtailing unilateral Israeli action, but assuring the world that, no matter what, trump will faithfully follow Israel's lead.
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Sean Davis
Sean Davis@seanmdav·
This is reminiscent of Israel’s missile attack against Qatar last September, which killed an innocent Qatari, in the midst of U.S. negotiations with Qatar and Israel to end the war in Gaza. The perception at the time was that the attack was designed to blow up the peace negotiations. Trump was so furious he forced Netanyahu to call Qatar and read a letter of apology word for word.
Rapid Response 47@RapidResponse47

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Alex
Alex@buffetsalpha·
@AuronMacintyre For someone who always wants to be known as the alpha in any situation, this statement, if true, has made him look like a complete lapdog. This is carte blanch for Israel to do anything it wants, knowing that their US attack dog will faithfully follow no matter what.
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Auron MacIntyre
Auron MacIntyre@AuronMacintyre·
This is the second time in a year that Trump has publicly acknowledged that the Israelis ignore him and attacks whoever they want with impunity
Auron MacIntyre tweet media
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Alex
Alex@buffetsalpha·
@SaysSimulation I highly doubt what he says is true, but even if it is, it just makes him look like a poor little powerless bitch. "Israel decide to jump into the well, so now we have no choice but to follow them" is basically his message. Weak and pathetic.
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Alex
Alex@buffetsalpha·
@BaldingsWorld There's a reason why all the great religions placed heaven and hell in another world. The history of the 20th century is that of people who over and over again refuse to accept that some things only belong to the afterlife.
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Blume Industries CEO Balding 大老板
Blume Industries CEO Balding 大老板@BaldingsWorld·
His predictions were not premature but just flat wrong. Not wrong as in they were a little off but wrong as in completely and entirely wrong not even close. However, that is not the part that people are missing. Ehrlich thinking wormed its way into to so much thinking and dominates large parts of polite society thinking today. Europe hands out advanced degrees in "degrowth" and while no one would say it is an advanced degree in Ehrlich's wrongness, his ideas permeate polite society. It boggles the mind that his ideas which are so universally wrong have such life under a different brand
Blume Industries CEO Balding 大老板 tweet media
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Alex
Alex@buffetsalpha·
@Grummz It will cause game devs to become EVEN MORE lazy and incompetent. Why bother trying to make a good model or fancy lighting when you can just AI slop everything in post? The crash of this "industry" can't come soon enough.
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Grummz
Grummz@Grummz·
Nvidia introduces DLSS 5.0 Complete AI makeover for your game, running in real time.
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Charles McGarraugh
Charles McGarraugh@CMcgarraugh·
@buffetsalpha I think the point is not to say "bonds are broken" Rather, it is to say: "bonds alone are inadequate" - Bonds: short growth, short inflation Stocks: long growth, short inflation Commods: long growth, long inflation Commods complete the toolkit/should have a place in the mix
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thermo
thermo@DionysianAgent·
the easiest way to tell if someone understands greek philosophy is to ask them who they prefer between Plato vs Aristotle the larpers and midwits will say plato every time but those who know, know that Aristotle was such a chad that it's understated how chad he was Plato >homosexual communist >"uhh we should all just have kids and put them in a big play pen where nobody knows whos kid is whos and that will solve all societies problems" Aristotle >tutored the greatest known conquerer in all of history >"the solution to life and society is the actualization of man's potential, ailment of society comes from degenerated potential"
ᾶσχτ (âsht)@malesor

Nietzsche cites Epicurus’ view that Plato and the Platonists were essentially LARPers.

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Alex
Alex@buffetsalpha·
@CMcgarraugh Anyone who says "get out of bonds now because they are correlated with stocks" is actually making an extreme macro bet on there never being another deflationary bust again.
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Alex
Alex@buffetsalpha·
@alexolegimas "Naive data mine" would be if they found correlations between the lunar phase and the returns of mid cap companies with high debt. To call anything that is a function of accounting data or price action "naive data mine" and not "theoretical" is a huge category error.
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Alex
Alex@buffetsalpha·
@alexolegimas The authors fall into a huge logical fallacy. They say "naive data mine" is just as good as "theory", forgetting that the numbers they call "naive data mine" are themselves the product of accounting theory. Everything on a balance sheet and income statement is there for a reason.
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Alex
Alex@buffetsalpha·
@systematicls The tariff meltdown is a good example of strong priors at work and how quick the re rating can be when they are invalidate. It's really hard for it to happen at index level, but you see it all the time at sector or individual equity level
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sysls
sysls@systematicls·
Prices in markets of all kinds (public, private, jobs, etc.) are first-order dollar-weighted predictions. Some markets have disproportionately more “informed dollars” than “uninformed dollars”. Public US equities is just about the canonical example. In markets like these, when very positive or very negative news break and the prices don’t budge. It’s not that the market has “ignored” the news. It’s that on a dollar-weighted basis, the market has already predicted the impact of this news, and the news did not deliver any additional information that wasn’t already predicted.
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Alex
Alex@buffetsalpha·
@systematicls It's also the case that markets have their own priors. The stronger the prior (in this case fade geopolitical vol) the more proof the market requires before it changes it's mind. But also if it does get enough proof to budge a hardened prior the reaction can be extremely violent.
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Tuklasin

@poxesfoxes @ActAccordingly @joolsd @ssphinxe @DagoSupremacy @YearOfTheKraken @zerohedge @seanmdav