halabi
1.5K posts
@MarshallCohen We need to start making bets as to whether the bets are correct ... the bet-bet ... a prediction market derivative!
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SCOOP: Someone made nearly $1m from dozens of remarkably accurate and well-timed bets about Iran, according to a new analysis of Polymarket data shared with CNN. They have 93% "win rate" for Iran bets over $10k since 2024, raising insider trading concerns cnn.com/2026/03/24/pol…
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@BinsaeedRashid If there’s a nuclear event, oil is going far higher than $200 and gold is going to $8,000 not $4,000. Crypto can do either, though my guess is crash is oil and gold soar.
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@bubbleboi If the market sees it as a one-time temporary charge, it's not going to affect the stock price.
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I’m massively short TSMC btw.
They will ship zero chips next month if this trend continues.
Tushar Gupta@Tushar15
Black swan events come with their own set of disruptions. TSMC is not getting helium right now. Singapore port is having logistics issues with delayed cargo. Crude stuck in Hormuz is causing a storage glut. The world is going through a manufactured supply chain disruption.
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Why do they keep trying to make the talking filibuster a thing? At the end of the day that still results in a vote and there aren’t 60 Republicans
Senator John Cornyn@JohnCornyn
Contrary to fake news in the twitterverse: I have supported the Save America Act from day one. I will happily support the “talking filibuster” if that’s what it takes to pass this into law. @realDonaldTrump
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When will the war with Iran end?
When Trump declares victory.
Regarding the end, what won't matter is whether (1) the nuclear program has been destroyed, (2) rockets, launchers & drones have been wiped out, (3) support for terrorism is ended, or (4) regime change.
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@captgouda24 @pangramlabs A high rating is good. It means they are tech savvy and there is a higher probability they are spending their time on higher impact things.
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Who in Congress uses AI? I ran the entire Congressional Record through @pangramlabs and found that 11.7% of all documents are AI-written. Here are the worst offenders for floor speeches. Subscribe to the blog for more to come!
nicholasdecker.substack.com
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@mattyglesias @gbrew24 They should have just taken Greenland and called it a day.
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It may shock people to hear that Iranian leaders are aware that the US has superior military capabilities and have made this precise calculation. It informs their entire strategy.
Bomb us all you want. Kill as many leaders as you can. Ultimately we will outlast you. And you willl know to never try this again.
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@RichardHanania Just because they got lucky one time, does not make it a good policy or those who were predicting disaster wrong.
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People who predicted disaster as a result of the Maduro raid were simply wrong.
If they admitted it, then it would imply that simply removing the leaders of rogue nations is good policy.
But that is seeming more and more like a reasonable conclusion. richardhanania.com/p/in-praise-of…
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@holy_moses7 Read the rules. If they discover some algae on Jupiter it qualifies.
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@dilanesper What a stupid tweet. Just because you don’t care about it doesn’t mean others don’t.
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If you want to know what's wrong with travel blogging, even more than the obsession with airline food (which is silly enough), it's the obsession with predeparture beverages. Literally nobody who actually flies for a reason cares about this. But the bloggers OBSESS about it.
Dilan Esper@dilanesper
@garyleff Indeed, I can identify something else that CLEARLY shows this, which is your profession obsesses about predeparture beverages. If food is a 1 on the relevance scale, predeparture beverages are a 0. Nobody makes a purchasing decision based on that.
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@B10329 @AirlinePilotmax flights are scheduled in just 2 days time so it's still relevant.
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As a flight safety expert, I continue to sound this alarm based solely on my extensive experience: Emirates, Etihad, and Air Arabia are potentially compromising passenger safety. Can these airlines truly guarantee secure airspace once their flights depart from Dubai, Abu Dhabi, or Sharjah? Contested airspace inherently carries significant vulnerabilities, with misidentification standing out as one of the gravest risks. This peril could lead to catastrophic incidents, underscoring the need for heightened vigilance and alternative routing strategies. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions in such regions amplify the chances of unintended escalations, demanding that airlines prioritize transparent risk assessments and robust contingency plans to safeguard everyone on board.
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Trump will TACO and make a deal.
There's no way he's looking at the stock market, rates, and the price of oil and not sweating bullets in an election year.
There's just no way.
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*TRUMP: NO DEAL WITH IRAN EXCEPT UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER
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@PitBottomSuper @TheWorthyHouse Good for you but you’re negotiating legalese not real deal terms.
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@halabi @TheWorthyHouse I do this for Fortune 500 companies for a living bro.
The terms are almost all negotiated by lawyers talking to lawyers. Biz guys will say yes or no to the topline, but everything underneath is lawyers all the way down.
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Once again, the idea that "AI" will replace lawyers is very stupid. This guy claims "The M&A lawyer doing 5 deals at a time will do 50." I was an M&A lawyer. The essence of M&A law is negotiation and coordination, none of which will ever be done by "AI." Dumb.
SMB Attorney@SMB_Attorney
You guys don’t get it yet. Everyone keeps saying AI is going to replace lawyers. I don’t think people understand how this actually plays out. Let’s say you use AI to draft a contract. The contract misses something important. A year later it costs you two million dollars. What do you do? Right now, you sue your lawyer. In the AI world, you’d sue the AI company. Two things can happen. Option 1: The AI company has liability for legal advice. If that’s the case, every AI company will immediately stop letting consumers use AI for real legal work. The liability risk is massive. Option 2: The AI company has no liability because of disclaimers. If that happens, every state bar in the country will say consumers are being exposed to unregulated legal advice and call it the unauthorized practice of law. And they’ll shut it down that way. Either path leads to the same outcome. Consumer AI will be limited to generic “Wikipedia-style” legal information and LegalZoom level document prep. But the real AI tools? Those will live inside law firms. Lawyers will use them to move faster, analyze more data, and run way more matters at once. The M&A lawyer doing 5 deals at a time will do 50. Trial lawyers will run far more cases simultaneously. The idea that AI replaces lawyers probably dies. The more likely outcome is that AI supercharges the best lawyers and makes the profession even more profitable than ever.
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@PitBottomSuper @TheWorthyHouse No they don’t. The terms are negotiated by businessmen. The lawyers put it in writing. That’s all they do.
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@halabi @TheWorthyHouse And how do you think parties negotiate the deal exactly?
That’s right, through their lawyers.
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@SMB_Attorney It will be like pharmacists today. They do almost nothing but are required to rubberstamp the computer's output.
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I'm taking a lot of heat, but even AI agrees with me that liability will prevent AI from taking highly regulated jobs like law and medicine…
Grok@grok
You're right on the liability angle. AI companies can't absorb the risk of real-world legal screw-ups without disclaimers that limit them to generic info or basic templates. State bars enforce unauthorized practice rules hard against unregulated bots. Inside firms, AI tools supercharge output—more deals, cases, analysis per lawyer. Efficiency rises, basic services get cheaper, low-end players fade, but skilled pros thrive and scale. Not replacement, augmentation.
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@1002iahdillon @TheAviationBeat That's the point. The big value in starlink is in longhaul flights (particularly TPAC where most carriers have spotty wifi). No one needs starlink for a 1 hour flight.
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@halabi @TheAviationBeat Starlink is rolled out on nearly 100% of the regional E175/CRJ 550 fleet. Only the CRJ200's and E145's don't have Starlink. They've never had wifi as they mostly operate quite short routes.
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I have flown United and Delta a half dozen times each in the past 6 months.
It is my view that United has passed Delta as the America’s premium airline. And the gap continues to grow.
United’s product, aircraft interiors, mobile app, WiFi (Starlink is much better than Viasat) and network are simply better than what Delta has to offer.
This was not the case 5 years ago.
Scott Kirby took a gamble post-Covid to go big on CapEx spending to turn United into a more premium airline. This meant new interiors on hundreds of aircraft, Starlink WiFi, rapid fleet growth, and a major expansion of their network.
Delta chose to play it more conservative and pay off Covid-era debt quickly on their balance sheet. This was a safer (and from a shareholder perspective arguably smarter) decision to take during a time of great uncertainty. This decision, however, shows in a Delta product that is starting to lag behind.
(I say this as a lifetime Delta loyalist)
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