
Koen | Markets & Startups
873 posts

Koen | Markets & Startups
@koencrypto
29y/o Entrepreneur. Crypto & macro investor since 2017. Trying to make sense of the changing world. Let's grow together!
Netherlands Sumali Eylül 2017
570 Sinusundan146 Mga Tagasunod
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The conflict in Iran has people fearing an energy crisis.
Crude Oil +8%
Natural Gas +6%
What is happening in the market? What are the effects on inflation and energy security?
US bond yields have shot up, triggering a flight to safety similar to what we saw during the COVID crash.
Even gold and silver sold off 3.5% and 6% respectively.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in Iran and the halt of Qatari LNG production, have made oil and natural gas futures go parabolic.
People are worried about inflation, and energy security.
See this thread for how to read and trade this.
$WTI $LNG $WENS $XLE $GLD $SIL $SPX
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The numbers of $MU are out of this world!
Q2 2026 Earnings:
Revenue: $23.86 billion, soaring 196.4% year-over-year. 
Adjusted EPS: $12.20 per share, crushing analyst estimates of $8.66. 
Management provided optimistic Q3 guidance, forecasting revenue around $33.5 billion.
The memory supercycle is far from over.
Despite the earnings beat, Micron is down 3% in the after market..

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@StockSavvyShay @fiscal_ai 74% margins are out of this world.
Scarcity drives margins..
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This AI cycle is fundamentally different from every prior memory supercycle in $MU history.
Past supercycles were driven by unit volume growth with more phones + servers buying largely commoditized DRAM but but this one is a capacity-constrained cycle where HBM sells at ~5x conventional DRAM ASPs.
Hyperscalers are willing to pay whatever it takes because the real cost is leaving massive GPU clusters underutilized.
That is how Micron ends up producing $16B of operating profit in a single quarter.

Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay
$MU ABSOLUTELY CRUSHED THEIR EARNINGS • Revenue $23.9B vs Est. $19.5B • EPS $12.20 vs Est. $8.73 • Net Income $14.0B vs Est. $10.5B • Gross Margin 74% vs Est. 69% Q3 Guide • Revenue $33.5B vs Est. $23.3B • EPS $19.15 vs Est. $10.77 • Gross Margin 81% vs Est. 71%
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@RihardJarc The memory super cycle seems to be far from over, and $MU is leading the pack.
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@Mindset4Money_X Insane that it’s down 3% in the after market after such numbers.
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@ecommerceshares And still the stock is down in the after market.
Unbelievable!
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@Sam_Badawi I think the stock market often overreacts to Google beta launches. This won’t kill $FIG or $ADBE
Look at the history of products that were cancelled by $GOOGL
It’s hard to move the needle in a 3-4T company.
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@StockSavvyShay $NBIS and $IREN are critical holdings for the AI infrastructure build outs.
Hyperscalers depend on them in the build out.
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@FluentInQuality Interesting how $NVO was first to market with their weight loss drug but completely lost their edge.
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$HYPE becoming the everything exchange. This is the most solid crypto project out there.
Hyperliquid has just started trading $SPX (SP500) perpetuals contracts.
This is the promise of 24/7 low fee global trading.
Recently they have launched contracts for Silver, Gold, and Oil too.
RWAs (real world assets) now make up about 30% of trading volume on the decentralised crypto exchange.
More assets will launch soon, preventing people to shift between multiple brokerage accounts.

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@RoundtableSpace Hyperliquid slowly becoming the everything exchange.
Being up while the market is down is a huge vote of confidence.
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@KobeissiLetter This is a massive arbitrage opportunity for US oil producers.
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There is a historic divergence in oil prices across regions:
Oman crude prices are up to ~$154/barrel, crossing $150 for the first time ever.
At the same time, Dubai crude is up to ~$130/barrel, while Brent is trading at ~$102 and WTI at ~$93.
In other words, the gap between Oman and US prices now stands at ~65%, or ~$61 per barrel.
By comparison, before the Iran War, the difference between all benchmarks was just $5 in January and February.
Brent and WTI are priced based on US and European supply conditions, while the actual disruption is concentrated in the Middle East, meaning they do not fully capture the severity of the physical shortage YET.
If the Strait does not reopen, this divergence will narrow, as Brent and WTI will ultimately reprice higher once US and European oil reserves are depleted.
The global oil market cannot sustain prolonged Middle East disruption.

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@brewmarkets As long as the conflict in Iran persists, interest cuts will remain uncertain.
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@StockSavvyShay A bet on Amazon and Google without fears of overspending is $AVGO.
The more inference workloads grow, the more trainium and TPU chips are deployed, the better Broadcom performs.
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$AVGO Q1 EARNINGS
• Revenue $19.3B vs Est. $19.1B
• EPS $2.05 vs Est. $2.02
• EBITDA $13.1B vs Est. $12.9B
• CapEx $250M vs Est. $216M
• AI Revenue: $8.4B (+106% YoY)
Q2 Guidance
• Revenue $22.0B vs Est. $20.4B
• EBITDA Margin 68% vs. Est. 68%
• AI Revenue: $10.7B
New $10B share repurchase program.

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