FluentInQuality

AI is disrupting $ADBE That's what the bears say. But it's far from the truth. It's a cash machine that's going to give investors 100% on their investment. Here's why $ADBE will loudly continue to dominate the creative industry: 🧵👇🏻

@Unpopular_Tech How feasible do you think that is? I think it will be quite tough to dismantle the behavior.

the flywheel description is accurate the part worth watching is what happens to each layer when AI starts unbundling the behavior that holds it together if product searches stop starting on Amazon because an agent is doing the searching, the advertising margin and the Prime stickiness are attached to a habit that may not survive the interface change the moat is real the assumption underneath it is worth pressure testing

$AMZN has a wide moat. But it's not one moat. Retail: —> Largest retailer in the world by GMV: $800B+ in 2024 —> 60% of goods sold through third-party marketplace —> Negative cash conversion cycle — gets paid before it pays suppliers —> Product searches start on Amazon more often than Google —> Prime at $139/year locks in the stickiest consumer base in retail AWS: —> 15–20% of revenue. Majority of total operating profit. —> Switching costs so brutal that core cloud providers are almost never changed —> Pioneer advantage with a lead Microsoft has spent a decade trying to close —> Data egress fees create a structural lock-in on top of integration costs Advertising: —> Likely the highest operating margin segment in the entire portfolio: 30%+ —> Proprietary data on hundreds of millions of users at the exact moment of purchase intent —> Growing rapidly as an alternative to Google and Meta ad spend Prime drives retail. Retail drives advertising. Advertising funds AWS investment. AWS funds everything else. The wide moat for $AMZN is greater than the sum of its parts.

@jdonovan42 I got a feeling $AMZN still has a LONG road ahead of itself

@FluentInQuality For sure. And now supply chain offered beyond amzn walls follow AWS, Ads, with chips and robotics versions of AWS next... Crazy

@F28X5 @nvidia @NVIDIAAI I can send it, doubt he will answer. :p

@FluentInQuality He should invest in micron before it reaches multiple trillion dollars. Memory (HBM) is the highest single component cost for Nvidia’s AI chips like the H100 (41%) and B200 (45%) 41% > 45% > higher prices Please send this message to Jensen Thx. 🙏 @nvidia @NVIDIAAI

Jensen Huang just admitted Nvidia made a mistake. Not a small one. Anthropic went to $GOOG and $AMZN AWS, not $NVDA, because Google and AWS wrote billion-dollar checks first. Jensen's words: "We just weren't in a position to make the multi-billion dollar investment into Anthropic so that they could use our compute." His admission: "That was my miss." Without that early capital, Anthropic had no choice. TPU and Trainium growth? Jensen says it plainly, it's 100% Anthropic. One customer. Not a trend. Now, Nvidia is investing $30B in OpenAI and $10B in Anthropic. The most profitable company in AI history, 70% gross margins, cranking out generational leaps every single year, was too small to write a $5B check when it mattered most. They won the compute war. And still left the equity on the table. Jensen isn't making that mistake again. Neither should you.

@ValentinVermont Jup!

@FluentInQuality Carfax is being sold this summer via the spinoff of their Mobility division.

It's USELESS trying to compete with $SPGI in credit ratings. Here's what you're up against. First, every major bond index, including the one backing the $300B+ BND ETF, only accepts ratings from S&P, Moody's, or Fitch. Your ratings are useless to institutional investors before you've issued a single one. Second, banking regulators globally use the Big Three to determine capital adequacy. Your new agency isn't on the approved list. It won't be for years. Third, corporate issuers won't take meetings with you. They already pay ~8 basis points for an S&P rating that saves them 30–65 basis points in interest annually. The ROI is obvious. Why would they experiment with an unproven alternative? Fourth, and this is the one people miss, you have NO default track record. To tell investors what a B+ rating actually means, you need decades of data showing how many B+ companies defaulted over 5, 10, and 20-year periods. You cannot manufacture that data. You can only wait for it. By the time you've waited long enough, S&P has compounded for another two decades. Then there's Carfax. 25 billion vehicle records. 112,000 data sources. $40–50M in annual advertising, building a consumer brand that took 30 years to create. Wide moat. Unbeatable. Fully deserved.

@kua62888 Pick the shovel. Not the miner.

@FluentInQuality “Neither should you” means doing what exactly?

$SPOT has a narrow moat. But the real story is who actually holds the power. It's NOT Spotify. Here's the music streaming economics that most investors ignore: —> Major record labels take 50–55% of subscription revenue. Every dollar. —> Music publishers take another ~15% for song composition rights. —> Total music costs: 65%+ of revenue. MINIMUM. Whether you're making $1M or $1B. No operating leverage. Ever. Scale doesn't help. Growth doesn't help. A platform generating $1B in revenue pays the same minimum percentage as one generating $1M. That's the structural ceiling every DSP operates under. So why does Spotify still have a moat? Three modest but compounding advantages: Switching costs —> playlists, algorithms, listening history, podcast subscriptions. Not impossible to leave. But the benefit of leaving is nil in most cases. Network effects —> artist-fan discovery loops, collaborative playlists, social listening features Cost advantages —> scale gives Spotify marginally better negotiating position than any new entrant could achieve from zero The moat isn't strong enough to crush competitors. It's just strong enough that NO competitor can offer a meaningfully better value proposition. And that's (at the time being) enough.

@jdonovan42 To finance aggressive growth, keep talent, and continue acquisitions. At this scale/phase, this type of dilution isn't much of a negative.

@FluentInQuality Yep and as always more dilution to its shareholders

$ZETA in 2026: Revenue: +50% Y/Y FCF: +48% Y/Y ARPU: +21% Y/Y Pipeline: +40% Y/Y Full-year guidance: raised again 19 consecutive beat and raise quarters. Athena AI: 60% of all platform AI usage in its FIRST week. One client just replaced four vendors with Zeta alone.

@SignaStrategies All companies raise prices. Why's it not liked when $FICO does it? The fact that they can and people don't run away demonstrates their moat in full force.

@FluentInQuality Too bad they arrogantly raise prices instead of quietly letting their moat work

$FICO has a wide moat. But not for the reason most people think. The moat is NOT underwriting. Capital One built its own scoring system. Affirm uses transaction history. Upstart eliminated FICO requirements entirely for some lenders. The real moat is the benchmark. Here's the distinction that matters: Even when a lender doesn't use FICO to approve a loan, they still report FICO scores to investors, regulators, and analysts on the back end. CarMax explicitly said in 2014: "FICO scores are not a significant factor in our primary scoring model." Yet CarMax's latest auto loan ABS still references a weighted average FICO score. That's the network effect in action. Once every bank, investor, regulator, and consumer speaks the same language, you can't displace the language. 80%+ of Fair Isaac's profits come from the scores segment. That segment has one moat source: every stakeholder in the credit ecosystem is locked into FICO as the common denominator. Wide moat. Fully justified.

I used to struggle with productivity. Transformed my days using the Eisenhower Matrix. What's your favorite?

@Abelgcy Watch the video; it will make sense.

@FluentInQuality I don’t understand wtf this tweet says

Jamie Dimon, CEO of $JPM, has fired people for running good meetings. Not bad meetings. Good ones. His definition of a bad meeting: it ends with "great session, let's pick this up next week." No owner. No deadline. No accountability. The people who run those meetings, he calls them "good bureaucrats." They love the process. They angle for the next job. They pound their chest. They grade themselves on activity, not outcomes. "If you don't get rid of them, no one believes you." He's applied this at $JPM, the most profitable bank in history, for 20 years. Bureaucracy doesn't require size. He said it can hit a single branch. "It's always the manager, stupid." The full clip is worth 3 minutes of any leader's time.

Intel spent decades untouchable in PC and server CPUs. Then it stumbled on manufacturing. $AMD made one call: go all-in with $TSMC. That single decision flipped the entire competitive dynamic. AMD took PC share. AMD took server share. AMD's chiplet strategy widened the gap further. Now $INTC is partnering with $NVDA just to stay relevant. The also-ran became the frontrunner. And that shift is NOT reversing easily.

@CorpusCol How so? Curious about your thoughts.

@FluentInQuality Dimon has done a great job for almost 30 years. This is the first time that he sounds like he’s lost a step.

$RDDT is one of the most misunderstood monetization stories in social media. The numbers first: US ARPU: $15.55 (2021) → $34.01 (2025) That's +119% in four years. And it's still a FRACTION of what Meta and Snap extract per user. Here's why the gap closes from here: —> 100M+ daily active users —> 100,000+ subreddits of self-selected, interest-based communities —> More than half of Reddit's DAUs are NOT on TikTok, X, or Snapchat —> Users arrive with intent, seeking advice, product recommendations, information —> Redditors report paying more attention to ads on Reddit than on any other platform The moat is the network effect flywheel: More content → more users → more engagement → more ad inventory → higher prices per ad → more revenue → repeat. Two monetization levers remain largely untapped: Lower-funnel performance advertising (still early) International ARPU (still deeply discounted vs US) Reddit currently monetizes at a lower rate than every major competitor. That's not a weakness. That's the runway.

@AdamLake Ok boomer

@FluentInQuality I swear to god this tweet is the most ridiculous combination of meaningless words I have ever read.

@JosephT35574113 hahahaha, yikes.

@FluentInQuality Probably should have had a couple of extra meetings before buying the company "Frank" for $175 million. Nothing beats getting hose-smacked by buying a synthetically produced customer base.

@vermontstallion How? He 'only' said that vaxxed people could come to the office. Not vaxxed? Work from home. Nothing forced here?

@FluentInQuality Fuck him, he forced his employees to take covid shots.