Stateble

💧 Prediction markets need aligned incentives across all participants. We're currently in the process of upgrading our architecture from AMM to CLOB (Orderbook) and creating a sustainable, distributed ecosystem where everyone earns their share 👇 @stateble/incentives-rewarding-lps-developers-creators-and-matchers?referrer=0x6685Ff364Be61af03DDD94383447026cfa732953" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">paragraph.com/@stateble/ince…

@0xNairolf ✌️

crypto sentiment down prediction markets adoption up

@0xjeff We’ll enable predictions for any onchain state.

Prediction = giving value to not what it is, but what it could be For determining the potential future value of an asset (stocks, real estate, cash-flow generating business), we have clear methodologies -- DCF, Comparable Analysis, sum of all parts, etc. But for many other things, we don't. Prediction markets fill in this role, leveraging wisdom of the crowd to give value to an event or an outcome Just as Bloomberg Terminal giving credibility to its "analyst forecast", prediction markets are giving credibility to the potential probability of outcomes We're seeing this at play w Polymarket latest stat — 91.1% forecast accuracy a month before market resolution (and 95.2% four hrs before) Yes/No shares = financial instrument of prediction Kaito started the yapper "micro-influencer" incentive distribution mechanism, incentivizing the act of "spreading the word" Cookie ties that with EV+ actions ( deposit TVL, generate volume), incentivizing the act of "doing things that align the interest of the project and you as a user", not just yapping Prediction markets (and Futarchy) take that a step further, committing to a prediction means risking your capital i.e. literally putting money where your mouth is Prediction = bet in the future of everything (not just financial assets)

@BNBCHAIN We’re building Prediction Markets for Anything Onchain 🌈 Any token price on any DEX Any contract state, no oracle, trustless resolutions: any token balance of any address (eg TVL, liquidity pools state, etc.). @BNBCHAIN will be one of the first supported chains ✌️

@cz_binance What if I tell you that you don’t need oracle to create prediction markers for any onchain state on @BNBCHAIN chain? Any token price on any DEX Any token balance of any address Anything Onchain 🌈

Just quickly reviewed more than 20 prediction markets startup projects on #BNB Chain. There might be an opportunity for someone to build a prediction market specific oracle. Not sure how big the TAM is, but might worth a try.

@polydao @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket Prediction Markets for any onchain state - time to define new category ;-)

PREDICTION MARKETS ECOSYSTEM I decided to classify everything, because the last list turned out to be “a little biased” So I divided all the projects into categories. Plus, all their Twitter accounts are listed below👇 I hope it was useful — BUILD ON POLYMARKET!!! @Polymarket @Kalshi @alkimiya_io @azuroprotocol @BetOnBluff_io @BodegaCardano @BRKTgg @butterygg @BuzzingApp @Castora_xyz @chompdotgames @context @DGbet_official @Euphoria_fi @fireplacegg @Hilomarket @HedgehogMarket @joinearlybird @meleemarkets @MyriadMarkets @NevuaMarkets @noise_xyz @OutcomeMarketX @Overtime_io @panana_predict @PicassoMarkets @polldotfun @polyfund @POLYNANCE_X @Polysights @precogmarket @predictandpump @PredictBase @r8rate @RareBetSports @SpecMarkets @spredict_io @sx_bet @triadfi @Truemarketsorg @trylimitless @vortx_hl @VersoTrading @xomarket @FEENTIME

@Baheet_ Hi. We’re building Prediction Markets for Anything Onchain: any token price on any DEX any chain, any token balance of any address (e.g. bet on rug pulls, TVL etc) - everything that sits onchain and can be checked directly contract-level for trustless resolutions.

if you're building something really cool in the prediction market space, kindly involve me I would like to be an early user if I can.

@0xNairolf Because it's important if we're talking about prediction markets here (Yes and No "odds") to create a resolution based on something objective :-) Like TVL, deposits count, unique wallets, etc. Anything that sits in the app's contract.

@0xNairolf Based. But, what is the measure of an app's "success"? 1. When the app (protocol) has a token people already value its potential/results with this token price. 2. If it's tokenless, there's no tool (yet) to bet on its success. If the measure is e.g. TVL -> We're building it 🔥

instead of manually curating apps like an app store, imagine this: a market for each app success users and traders buy yes or no shares, so the odds go up or down apps with higher odds rise in the rankings people early profit and explorers get a good discovery feed

@cdixon @Kalshi Yesterday we saw why token price Prediction Markets with resolutions based on CEX candles like @binance yesterday is a bad idea. Purely onchain (via liquidity pool) price resolutions are the future. Resolutions based on CEX or oracle like @Polymarket, @Kalshi operate is flawed.

Today we are announcing that a16z is co-leading the Series D in @Kalshi, a regulated exchange for trading on prediction markets. Prediction markets are a modern implementation of a classic economic idea, one most clearly articulated by Friedrich Hayek. Hayek and the knowledge problem Hayek argued that no central planner could ever access the dispersed knowledge held by millions of people across an economy, a fundamental challenge that has come to be known as the “knowledge problem.” Much of this knowledge is tacit and unspoken, embedded in people’s experiences, circumstances, and preferences. Hayek wasn’t just pointing out the limits of central planning. He was offering a solution. In his 1945 essay The Use of Knowledge in Society, Hayek argued that the solution lies in looking outward, not inward: “We need decentralization,” as he put it. Markets, in Hayek’s view, are not just allocation mechanisms but information systems. Prices act as signals, compressing vast amounts of local knowledge into actionable information. Moreover, prices create incentives: they encourage people to make decisions and act in ways that drive information back into the system. This creates an iterative feedback loop, an engine that drives better performance. Today we might say that the answer to the knowledge problem is not to give central planners more sophisticated computers. The answer is that markets themselves are the computers. Prediction markets make this idea concrete, applying it to questions about the future and turning collective knowledge into prices that reflect probabilities. Why we’re investing in Kalshi This is why we’re excited about prediction markets, and why we’re investing in Kalshi. Kalshi is bringing prediction markets into the mainstream with a compliant, scalable platform for event contracts covering everything from elections and economics to sports and culture. It has already seen billions in trading volume and continues to grow quickly. Kalshi also plans deep crypto integrations, work we’re excited to collaborate on, and today announced they’re expanding globally to 140 countries. We’re not the only ones excited about the potential of prediction markets. For businesses and investors, event contracts can hedge risk, such as exposure to economic or policy changes. For policymakers and analysts, market prices offer real-time forecasts that can outperform polls and expert predictions. And for society at large, prediction markets create an open, transparent, and incentive-driven way to aggregate beliefs about the future. This is the right moment for prediction markets. As trust in established institutions reaches historic lows — at least according to the polls — we need new systems that can earn trust in different ways. We believe the answer lies in open, decentralized systems. DeFi provides an alternative to traditional finance, stablecoins to conventional payment providers, and prediction markets to expert forecasts. Where people once trusted banks or pundits, they can now trust protocols and markets. Hayek’s insight was that knowledge is too widely distributed for any one authority to possess. Instead, we need systems that harness the intelligence of the many. Kalshi puts this idea into action, transforming dispersed information into concrete, market-based forecasts. We’re excited to support their work as they bring prediction markets into the mainstream.

That’s why token price Prediction Markets with resolutions based on CEX candles like @binance yesterday is a bad idea. Purely onchain (via liquidity pool) price resolutions are the future. Resolutions based on CEX or oracles like @Polymarket and @trylimitless operate is flawed.

@BNBCHAIN Prediction Markets 👉 @BNBCHAIN RWA tokens supply

Real-world assets are going onchain, but only complete ecosystems can take them to scale. BNB Chain brings together compliant issuance, liquidity and DeFi utility in one stack. That’s why builders are converging here 👇 bnbchain.org/en/blog/rwas-o…

@shayne_coplan @NYSE Markets on Everything Onchain 🌈

Markets on everything. We’re proud to announce that $ICE, the owner of @NYSE and the largest exchange company in the world, is making a strategic investment of $2 billion into Polymarket, valuing us at $9 billion post-money. Our partnership with ICE marks a major step in bringing prediction markets into the financial mainstream. But in addition to that, it’s a monumental step forward for DeFi. ICE is the one remaining founder-led exchange company, and Jeff is all-in on utilizing his assets, including NYSE, to usher in a new financial era of tokenization. We’re humbled to be working together on this endeavor. ICE will also begin distributing Polymarket data to thousands of financial institutions around the world. There is so much to build when you combine the force of ICE’s institutional scale and credibility with Polymarket’s consumer + cultural savvy and distribution. The past two years have been surreal. Going from a write off to creating a category, watching our vision become a reality. The Polymarket origin story is funny because it's a rare case of the dream being identical to how things played out. If I learned one thing, it’s that bold ideas are everywhere, hidden in plain sight. It just takes someone crazy enough to spend their life willing it into existence. That’s entrepreneurship: willing things into existence. I remember reading Robin Hanson’s literature on prediction markets and thinking - man, this is too good of an idea to just exist in whitepapers. There were a million reasons why it shouldn’t work, countless arguments of why not to do it, and the odds were against us, but we had to try. At the onset of the pandemic, I quite literally had nothing to lose: 21, running out of money, 2.5 years since I dropped out and nothing to show for it. But I knew we were entering an era where ways to find truth would matter more than ever, and Polymarket could play a critical role in that. After all, nothing is more valuable than the truth. It’s still a work in progress, but we’re honored to have made the impact we have thus far. I’d also like to give a special thank you to all of our users, builders, and community members who have been with us since 2020. Your support will not be forgotten 🔮 Last but not least, I am deeply grateful for all of the support and hard work of my brilliant team. I’m getting to live my wildest dreams, seemingly against all odds, and I don’t take it for granted. The best is yet to come… 🇺🇸 Que Sera Sera

Absolutely enormous for Prediction Markets

@Polymarket @NYSE Enormous 🔥

We are excited to announce that Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) — the parent company of @NYSE, is making a $2b strategic investment at a $9b post-money valuation. Together, we’re building the next evolution of markets. A special thank you to all those who have supported us till now. This is just the beginning 🦅🔮

@j0hnwang Excellent writing. Mom, I’m not a degen. I'm a pillar of the global economy 🌐

BNB Mainnet. And sorry to hear that you're having an issue with the faucet. I tested the faucet a moment ago, and it worked for me, so maybe it was an RPC/connection issue. We could just send you some MockUSDC to your address, but I'd recommend waiting a little bit, because we're in the process of migrating from AMM to Orderbook architecture. In 2-3 days, we'll deploy an app with no anti-spam MockUSDC faucet fee (1 tx instead of 2), and a completely new trading system in general. Thanks, and sorry for this issue.

@stateble trying out Stateble? Is it on BNB mainnet or testnet? It says mockUSD while the txns are on BNB mainnet? Also mockUSD txns fails

💧 Prediction markets need aligned incentives across all participants. We're currently in the process of upgrading our architecture from AMM to CLOB (Orderbook) and creating a sustainable, distributed ecosystem where everyone earns their share 👇 @stateble/incentives-rewarding-lps-developers-creators-and-matchers?referrer=0x6685Ff364Be61af03DDD94383447026cfa732953" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">paragraph.com/@stateble/ince…

@Kujangubuy 👋

@stateble hi..........

@cs_defier Other mechanism / segment. We’re building Prediction Markets for Anything Onchain - bet any token price on any DEX on any chain, bet balances, rug pulls, liquidations, supply changes. Any onchain state is bettable. Not just permissionless creation but trustless resolutions.

currently there’s many permissionless prediction markets which one would stand out, and what would be the reason behind it? - first mover? - community support? - funding? - team background? - target audience? (non US) - specific niche (sports) - user interface? - other mechanism?

@thenarrator Great projects 👑