

Blue Bear
2.1K posts




I have never been so bullish on the United States of America.




US sending nearly all JASSM-ER cruise missiles to CENTCOM, leaving "only about 425 JASSM-ER out of a prewar inventory of 2,300" for other contingencies. When does the US lose conventional deterrence against China? We're edging dangerously close. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…



Hey @grok, what religious group in America has the lowest rate of enlistment in the U.S. military?







I’m noticing a lot of foreigners who seem to not understand why we’d risk hundreds of lives, spend millions of dollars, and sacrifice several aircraft to rescue one guy. And the reason they don’t understand is also the reason people can’t be made American by a piece of paper.


The conventional deterrent in Asia vanished not with the expenditure of missile inventories. It vanished once it was demonstrated that the US cannot suppress Iranian missiles and that US forward bases cannot survive under Iranian missile fire. This is elementary but important to understand. The conventional deterrent threat in Asia is that the US will fight China if the latter attacked Taiwan. Can the US now credibly promise to do that? No, it cannot. In order to fight China, US forces need to survive in the Western Pacific. Where are they supposed to survive? Which bases are secured from Chinese missile fire? Which ships are secure? If you have dispersed forces, as the Archipelagic Defense proposal suggests, maybe survival rates would be marginally higher. But how do you propose to resupply them without a functioning surface fleet in the region? How does the US propose to fight the air war? Even if the Anderson and Press proposal for base hardening is followed, what will be the survival rate of the hardened bases? They model a 30 day war. Why will China stop at day 30 if there are bases still standing? On top of the paramount issue of base vulnerability is the magazine depth issue. Not in the sense that Kelly is implying: that we’re emptying the magazine. Rather in the sense that if even the full magazine is insufficient to subdue Iran, it was already laughably insufficient for war in Asia. Iran has proven that the US cannot fight China. Get over it. Or we will end up in a vastly larger military humiliation than we are suffering right now.


BREAKING: The two MC-130 aircraft that ferried roughly 100 U.S. special operations forces into Iran to extract the final F-15 crew member, the WSO, suffered mechanical failures and were unable to take off, risking leaving commandos stranded behind enemy lines - Reuters



"The crisis begins as an attempt to overthrow an unfriendly regime in the Middle East, in concert with the state of Israel. It is also a struggle for control of a key commercial waterway. Despite lacking a plausible basis in international law and popular support at home, the military operation is nevertheless a success in its own terms. The armed forces of the invaded state are swiftly overwhelmed." 2/5



Who believes the U.S. bombed those planes? Were 3 planes malfunctioning? I never believe the United States.


With the Airfield Geolocated by @andynovy , we can now have significant confidence that the area of rescue was in the Kolah Ghazi National Park, South-East of Isfahan, Population 2.2m




@shortmagsmle @Cernovich This is also the reason why the US folds after suffering just a few casualties. Every tinpot dictator knows this. They win every time.

The "leave no man behind" doctrine is actually a strategic weakness disguised as a virtue. Name one other military on earth that destroys 6 aircraft and fights a ground battle inside a sovereign nation to recover one pilot. You can't. Because no other military confuses tactical sentimentality with strategic logic. Soldiers serve the mission. The mission doesn't serve the soldier. The US has now established that Iran can shoot down an F-15, then watch America spend $300M and expose Delta Force trying to prove it didn't happen. That's not military doctrine. That's politics with weapons. A military that cannot accept the risk of loss cannot win wars. The US hasn't won one since 1945.