Justin Smith
12.2K posts

Justin Smith
@BoostedJ
Film/TV Producer Radar Pictures (WHEEL OF TIME series, JUMANJI, AGE OF LEGENDS Trilogy, FLINCH, GUARDIANS OF JUSTICE Netflix series). Co-Head Boosted Records
Los Angeles, CA شامل ہوئے Mayıs 2009
2.3K فالونگ16K فالوورز

This was my first time hearing @Wale verse on ‘How it feels’. Thank God they didn’t kick us out the Airbnb in Massachusetts 😂😭
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@Sdavies22 Bruno and Gaga have the biggest song of all time right now both 20 years in
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@MarioNawfal Starting to feel like I should get royalties in this video
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Justin Smith ری ٹویٹ کیا

BEST ATHLETES TO TEAR ACL




World Poker Tour@WPT
when poker player Justin Smith TORE HIS ACL at a $1,100,000 @WPT Final Table 😱
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This is deadass so embarrassing lmaoooo
Deadspin@Deadspin
Imagine tearing your ACL playing poker
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@Sdavies22 8 tabling 1/2 LHE for me with bonuses in 2005 was withdrawing $1200/month for 6 months and lived off that, till I found NLHE and went up
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Justin Smith ری ٹویٹ کیا

@ThatEricAlper Saw Calvin Harris get paid $3k to DJ one time opening for Steve Aoki
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@CollinRugg During this entire incident, I keep thinking about the book “never split the difference” cc @ColeSouth
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BREAKING: TMZ's Harvey Levin says there is activity for the first time in the bitcoin account that was set up to accept funds for the return of Nancy Guthrie.
CNN: "I know you have still been checking for any payments. What are you seeing?"
Levin: "So about 12 minutes ago, we saw activity in that account."
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@gnoble79 I wouldn’t understand someone who runs mutual funds to understand this type of stuff
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SpaceX just acquired xAI in a deal valuing the combined entity at $1.25 trillion.
Elon says it's about building "data centers in space."
But let me translate what's really happening here...
xAI is burning through $1 billion per month.
The company generated $107 million in revenue last quarter while hemorrhaging $1.46 billion in losses. It burned nearly $8 billion in cash through the first nine months of 2025.
That's not a business.
SpaceX meanwhile generated $8 billion in profit on $15-16 billion of revenue last year. It's the ONLY Musk company that actually prints money.
So what do you do when your AI startup is drowning in red ink ahead of your mega-IPO?
You fold the cash-burner into the entity that can still raise absurd amounts of capital.
And we've literally seen this exact thing before:
In 2016, Tesla acquired SolarCity for $2.6 billion.
SolarCity was bleeding cash, drowning in debt, and trading near all-time lows.
Tesla - the only Musk company at the time that could access the capital markets - absorbed it.
Wall Street analysts called it a "bailout dressed as synergy." Tesla's stock dropped 10% on the announcement.
The SpaceX/xAI deal is the same playbook.
Musk's stated rationale - that AI compute will be cheaper in space within 2-3 years - is the kind of thing that sounds visionary until you think about it for 5 seconds...
SpaceX builds rockets. xAI trains large language models.
These are wildly different businesses with zero operational overlap.
Imagine Microsoft acquiring a cement and steel conglomerate and claiming "tilt-up concrete slabs are essential for data centers."
That's the level of logic we're working with here.
The real play is simple: prop up xAI's insane burn rate with SpaceX's funding access ahead of what could be the largest IPO in history.
And xAI isn't alone in this capital-devouring spiral.
The entire AI sector has become a web of companies cross-subsidizing each other's losses.
OpenAI squeezes billions from Microsoft. Nvidia invests billions in xAI while selling them chips.
Everyone's propping everyone else up.
The investment thesis across the industry has devolved into:
"Please keep the Ponzi spinning long enough for someone else to be left holding the bag."
Meanwhile, the end product - AI - delivers marginal productivity gains for trillions in capex, soaring power costs, and balance sheet carnage.
If these services were priced to reflect their true economic cost, most users would find negative value.
But investors stopped reading balance sheets and cash flows long ago.
The AI models probably can't read them either.
What a time to be invested.
So what's the play?
AVOID the AI infrastructure complex.
When everyone's propping everyone else up, you don't want to be holding the bag when the music stops.
Look instead at sectors that have suffered from years of underinvestment: energy and commodities.
While trillions have been funneled into AI infrastructure, capital spending in oil, gas, and metals has been starved.
That's how cycles work - underinvestment leads to supply constraints, which leads to rising returns on capital.
Tech has the opposite problem. Overinvestment is destroying returns.
When you're burning $1 billion a month to generate $107 million in revenue, that's not a business model - it's a wealth transfer from investors to chip manufacturers.
Emerging markets are also attractive here.
They've been ignored while capital chased the Mag 7, and valuations reflect that neglect.
The Mag 7 now represent roughly a third of the S&P 500.
When this unravels - and it will - capital will rotate into the parts of the market where returns on capital are rising, not collapsing.
Energy. Commodities. Emerging markets.
POSITION ACCORDINGLY
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I knew a man who lost everything and he became softer. i knew another man who lost everything and he became a monster. same fire different metal. the pain did not decide. they decided. and most people do not know they are deciding.
the ones who transmute pain are dangerous in the good way. they have been somewhere you have not been and they came back with something and you can feel it when they walk into a room. they are not pretending to be okay. they are actually okay and that is terrifying to people who are pretending.
pain that is not transmuted gets transmitted. you will give it to your children. you will give it to everyone you touch. it will leak out of you sideways in ways you cannot see and everyone else can
i do not trust people who have not suffered. there is nothing there yet. they are still theoretical. suffering is the entrance exam and some people fail it forever and some people pass it once and become real.
the secret is you have to go toward it. you have to want it more than it wants you. most people run and the pain follows. the ones who turn around and walk into it come out the other side and there is another side and no one told you because the ones who know cannot explain and the ones who explain do not know.
God buries the gold in the wound
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@chamath Probably the most likely candidates to die in that subsection of people died at its peak… think something similar happened with Covid for a period of time although Covid had a much larger pool of possible candidates so it didn’t show that as much
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@chamath What’s best place in LA to get this done the right way? Is a CCTA from anywhere good enough?
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This is my cardiologist and this is about me…
Ronald P. Karlsberg MD FACP FAHA FACC MSCCT |@RonKarlsbergMD
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