@FezzikSports For a weird comparison, in 1998 Kansas was a 42-point favorite over Prairie View, ML was -6000. Kansas won 110-52. This year against Florida, they are 35.5 dogs, ML Florida is -40000 at Circa.
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Bob E
5.3K posts
Bob E
@ComptrBob
Sports bettor and analyst. Math skills galore. Skier and golfer.
شامل ہوئے Haziran 2013
184 فالونگ569 فالوورز
@FezzikSports AZ ML closed -35000 at @CircaSports. So @potatoKmish needed to lay $350k to win that dime at Circa.
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I bet AZ -8000 vs. Long Island.
I did not give it to my clients.
My max bets on bets like this is RISK 5% of bankroll typically, NEVER more than 10%...........
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@j_fishback I'd rather prefer competent teachers and be safe from nuclear attack.
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Would you rather spend $200 billion to bomb Iran or…?
A: give every teacher in America a $62,500 bonus
B: provide downpayment assistance for 20 million young families
C: build 1,300 rural hospitals
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@SenAngusKing Just fund DHS asshole. Then you can fucking talk all you want.
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We can fund the TSA.
We can fund FEMA.
We can fund CISA.
We can fund the Coast Guard.
Then we can talk through our differences on reining in the tactics of ICE and CBP to better protect Americans.
I hope my colleagues support this approach the next time it comes up for a vote.
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@AlPawlowski Get used to it, NIL has made it even more unbalanced. You get an occasional upset, but Mid-majors last year went 6-15 SU in the NCAA tourney against the power 4 according to Grok.
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Anyone else want to try and make the argument a 30-win team doesn’t belong in the NCAA Tournament because of a rating system that is built to favor the P4 conferences?
The fact Miami was forced to play in a play-in game was a joke.
The bias against the mid-majors is absurd.
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@FezzikSports Certainly good compared to the joke MLs at Circa:
Duke -30000 ......... Michigan -37500
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Yes, I bet DUKE -9500 .........
Yes, I bet Mich -9900......
NO, I did not release them (not widely available)
Great bets
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Let’s get this out of the way now.
Miami (OH) belonged in the NCAA Tournament even if it…
Loses by 1
Loses by 10
Loses by 20+
The result of this game as well as every other game has zero effect on whether or not a team should have been included.
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@DarrigoMelanie Ridiculous. Without an actual citizenship check, it's just made-up garbage to try to grab a headline. Heritage Foundation spews total crap.
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Only 10 undocumented immigrants have successfully cast ballots over the last 25 years.
There are more Trump allies in the Epstein files than there are undocumented immigrants voting.
The SAVE America Act is a voter suppression bill that protects Trump and his Epstein allies.
Ted Cruz@tedcruz
Democrats are trying to stop the SAVE America Act because they want illegal aliens to vote for them. That’s bad for America. We need to pass the SAVE America Act.
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@RioTazewell So, since they are so good, let them review voter's citizenship in real time.
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Utah reviewed 2 MILLION voter registrations.
Found 1 non-citizen registered. Zero non-citizen votes cast.
The "problem" the SAVE Act is solving doesn't exist.
The voters it would block absolutely do. #SAVEActIsPayToVote
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@WalshFreedom I paid with my FICA taxes for Social Security and Medicare. OTOH, Medicaid is welfare, eliminate it.
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Utter bullshit. A race-baiting, fear-mongering, xenophobic lie. The primary driver of our debt is Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid - paying for retirement & health care for the American people who are living longer & longer is the primary cause of our debt. There’s not even a close second. But team Trump would rather lie and blame brown & black immigrants.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar
Stephen Miller: "If all of this theft were stopped, it would be enough to balance the budget. The extraction of wealth from American taxpayers to people who don't belong here is the primary cause of the national debt."
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@alexj_421 @Aaron_Bracy @ESPNLunardi I would say his pick of Idaho as a 16 seed play-in versus what was a strong 15 seed is his most glaring misstep. The Utah State pick at a 7 should have been at most a n 8.
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Here’s how Joe Lunardi did with his final bracket compared to the actual bracket:
FIELD: 68/68
AT-LARGE: 37/37
SEED (exact): 57/68 *
SEED (+/- 1):
67/68 *
* personal best(s)
I know Joe is good at this, but that is just wild. 👏 @ESPNLunardi
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@NickViaNyte Moraga, CA (St. Mary's) is about 65 miles from Davis, CA. Not an overwhelming difference.
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@trentriker @GoodZibes Since 1989, only one team worse than a 4 seed has won the tourney. It's always been about crowning the top seeds.
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@GoodZibes Yes. Tournament needs expanding, unless you like watching the Power 4 invitational every year. Before conference realignment I’d say never expand. And…even if you do get in, your going to the first four as an 11 seed, or a 9 seed if you have 25 plus wins and great metrics.
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I better not see any Aztec fans ask for tournament expansion. I don’t think any of you would suggest that tho lol
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@BattleCattleFan NIL $$$ will be very important. Will be interesting to see.
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Here’s some Data, for those looking for an objective answer.
It’s Average NET Finish per team (since 2018/19)
New PAC12: 90
PAC5 leaving MWC: 78.
MWC, if no change : 127.
MWC6 Left behind: 168.
This is all before the PAC schools all will get a bump by playing Gonzaga and other tougher competition nearly every game
The New PAC12 is nothing like the old MW. The difference between the two leagues about the same as the Ivy League and the A10.
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@BattleCattleFan Holy crap, if you can't beat an 8 seed, there's no hope for you.
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Under seed Utah State. Put them
Essentially ALWAYS in the 8/9
Game.
Then say “oh they’ve never made a run in the tournament”
Screw it all.
Jeff Watts@jcwatts21
I love the annual tradition of under seeding Mountain West teams. This things rigged for the big conferences.
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@SenatorDurbin So Dems lunatics can target them and their families? STFU Dickie.
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Democrats have asked immigration agents to take their masks off and abide by the rules outlined in our Constitution. But Republicans shut down the Department of Homeland Security to block these common sense measures.
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A big part of not wanting the 8/9 seeds comes from the difficulty of making it past the second round since you have to face a 1 seed 99.9% of the time. Based on historical win percentages, the odds of making it to the Sweet 16 and beyond are actually higher for 10, 11 and 12 seeds than for 8 and 9 seeds.
In the 64+ team era of the NCAA, 8/9 seeds are 22-136 against 1 seeds. Since 2010, there have been 10 upsets by an 8/9 over a 1 seed, which is an average of 0.7 per tournament.
We've also not had an 8/9 upset of a 1 seed in either of the last two tournaments, so you might say we're due.
Jason Walker@jwalker_sports
Video from the Utah State press conference after the announcement that they'll be a 9 seed taking on 8 seed Villanova. Quotable from Jerrod Calhoun, said his team getting a 9 seed was "absolutely atrocious"
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@ComptrBob No, but there is noticable difference between 10.0%, 5.0% and 15.0%, 16.9% and 13.8%, which is a more accurate reflection of the odds of making it as an 8 or 9 seed and how often the 10, 11, and 12 seeds make it.
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@PattyMurray Yeah, defund ICE and border patrol. Nice try, Patty, but no good.
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REMINDER: Democrats tried SIX TIMES to fund the parts of DHS that Congress agrees on—like paying TSA workers, FEMA, and cyber defense.
Republicans blocked us every single time.
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@703Aggie @MarchMadnessMBB Miami is a virtual pick'em (KP 0.08) behind USU. The three other 7 seeds were rated better. Obviously USU should have been an 8 seed, that's why they are 2 pt favorites over Villanova. NET ratings are useless, that's why even the committee doesn't use them.
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In the west region:
9 seed Utah State (26 NET, 30 KenPom, won regular season outright conference title and tournament)
8 seed Villanova (35 NET, 33 KenPom, no conference rings)
7 seed Miami (32 NET, 31 KenPom, no conference rings)
@MarchMadnessMBB make it make sense.
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