Unusual Intelligence

You saw what happens when everyone who is in the same trade decides to exit at once on Friday. Where’s the bottom is the question.

Doesn’t matter if this narrative is true or false. If it comes to the fore during a down move, the price action will be intensified because the “cyclical” bogeyman is always there for memory. $MU $SNDK

@CMSinvestments @AionAnalytics Thank you!

@DataCenterMilly @AionAnalytics Down and/or chop. Negative gamma on $SPY will amplify downward moves

$VIX $NQ $QQQ Pack it up cuz the fun is over until July 24th when max fear is in the market. Shorting the pop has returned. Thank you for @AionAnalytics 🙂

@JaguarAnalytics Thank you!

Deconstructing Friday's Selloff --- My high level thoughts to keep you all sane. Enjoy! jaguaranalytics.com/wp-content/upl…

Most important thing you can listen to this weekend. 1.5x speed works because Jags is a chill talker.

@blondesnmoney Anyone with a brain knew it would. Now the more important question: is this the start of something much much nastier

The Nasdaq jumped 33% in the span of two months and then corrected 5%. Did anyone seriously think a wash out wouldn't occur?

KOREA JUST DOUBLED THE COST OF BUYING SAMSUNG? Hearing Samsung long swap financing went from ~300bp Thurs to ~600bp friday If true, that’s wild (when was last time this happened?!) synthetic long exposure suddenly got much more expensive when banks double the cost of owning a stock through swaps, the marginal leveraged buyer gets taxed…. Question is WHY?? Balance sheet constraint? Borrow/inventory issue? Dealer risk limits? Or Korean regulators leaning on the system? What a circus… either way, 300bp to 600bp in 24 hours is a signal

A guy calls his broker and asks about egg futures. Broker says they’re at 25 cents. Guy says, “Alright, buy me 100 contracts.” A week later he calls again. Broker says, “Good call. They’re at 35 cents now.” Guy gets excited and buys 1,000 more. Few days later, he calls again. Eggs are at 50 cents. Now he thinks he’s a genius, so he buys 100,000 contracts. Next day they’re at 65 cents. He buys a million. Then they’re at 95 cents. He buys another million. Then $1.25. He buys another million. Next day, eggs are trading at $1.75. He finally thinks, alright, this is probably enough. Time to take profit. So he tells his broker, “Sell 2 million contracts.” After a long silence, broker finally says: “Sell to who? You’re the egg guy.”

I’m seeing some describe Friday as “one red day” Maybe, maybe not. Really need to see the action Monday to decide if this is a buyable single day dip or the start of something deeper. There was legit damage done and many overextended Tech stocks have undefined support.

Fintwit went from bottlenecks and P&L screenshots to “WTF just happened” in 2 sessions.

They say history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Don’t know.

I was told $DRAM only goes up Anon

The real reason for this drop is that everything was overcooked. Shit like $DELL going up 150 on earnings. $MU gapping up 50 every day Anything mentioned by Serenity popping 20% Things need to calm down and find real levels to trade against.

@JaguarAnalytics Sawed thru its EMAs like a hot knife thru butter

South Korea ETF $EWY

@JaguarAnalytics We’re all watching the KOSPI now

KOSPI going to be limit down Monday or what?

@pequityresearch Very well said. My own take is that A LOT of hot money from Crypto poured into Memory, Chips and whatever the pump of the day was. The market always corrects that sort of exuberance. We may not even be close to done yet either.

Don't Ignore The Market Today Today's market crash should not be ignored, and I have the reasons why. I did this short article on the 6 catalysts to monitor: 1. Upcoming FOMC Meeting > Kevin Warsh is the new FED chairman and he has one important task: what is your decision on interest rates? Hike? Cut? Pause? The market polls are expecting a pause. The interest rates are now on your court. 2. Iran Conflict > Trump has had 100 final decisions made > Exxon and Chevron warn of higher gas prices > U.S. oil reserve is at its lowest since 1980. 3. Broadcom sends a warning > Broadcom missed AI semi revenue by $500M > Broadcom confirms Google is diversifying suppliers (like MediaTek). What does this mean for future margins? Does this mirror into GPU providers like Nvidia? 4. Nvidia says F*CK your memory! > SemiAnalysis came out with a report 2 days ago saying Nvidia cut SOCAMM DRAM memory for Vera Rubin by 50%, from 55TB to 28TB. > Did market participants mistaken this for HBM? According to Jukan, it led to a sell-off for SOCAMM substrate stocks. OUCH. 5. Absurd memory prices > BNP Paribas analyst, Karl Ackerman, says DRAM and NAND prices will peak in mid 2026 instead of mid 2027. > Mafia cartel destroyed by CXMT & YMTC soon? 6. Stupid Valuations If you aren't averaging 100% returns every month, you are f*cked. > The market has become way too easy. Pump and dumps in microcaps. > Someone asked why $VLN is down 37% and after looking at their financial metrics, I couldn't help but laugh realizing it's a shitco. > Nowadays, everything is a “chokepoint” in the AI supply chain. Hence, people assuming thousands of AI winners exist and the consistent pump and dumping. Check it out 👇 open.substack.com/pub/pequityres…

How it feels today