Derek Ortt

Public service announcement: The hurricane cone is NOT the cone of uncertainty. It is NOT the cone of impact. It merely depicts the area where the storm will be based upon historical error. An ensemble probability is a better approximation of the uncertainty

@rushtropicalwx @AndyHazelton florence sure did. Bob did not because it formed near the coast and quickly blew up into a cat 3

@DerekOrtt @AndyHazelton Oh I didnt know that. But Florence did though, right?

This is the forecast thats throwing off the Universoty of Arizona Hurricane Forecast. It shows an Atlantic that warms significantly over the summer. What could be driving this forecast?

@rushtropicalwx @AndyHazelton bob did not generate much ACE or TIKE

@DerekOrtt @AndyHazelton Not to mention Florence or Bob

@AndyHazelton @rushtropicalwx it's a Katrina, Rita, or a stronger Ophelia that concerns me somewhat given how warm the subtropics are. That would crank the ACE quickly, even though they are not long track

@DerekOrtt @rushtropicalwx I'd be surprised if we get crazy ACE from it though, because they won't be long track. Probably local genesis which limits ACE.

@AndyHazelton you think the NHC wouldn't go ahead and call it subtropical? Seems to have a few characteristics of a subtropical storm

Some models have a signal for a coastal low off the Carolinas next week. It showed up on the 18z Euro and this morning's GFS. Other models have a lot less phasing/growth and a weaker storm offshore. If that sounds like winter terminology, that's because it is! This would be a baroclinic (cold-core) system in all likelihood, not tropical. Worth watching for coastal impacts along the outer banks if the stronger solutions verify, but that seems pretty uncertain at this point.

@AndyHazelton @rushtropicalwx Andy, We may need to be on guard for a very aggressive subtropics this year. If we get a 2005 subtropical season, the overall season is still going to be rather active Just takes a couple of slow moving canes in the subtropics

@rushtropicalwx It's actually not that crazy in raw anomalies. It warms but the subtropics are warmer. The Atlantic is not going to be warm enough to be a player this year.

Obviously the GFS is out to lunch as usual. That said, I can see a weak low forming in the Caribbean early next week. Likely too sheared to be classified, however

@BrianFeroldi and bear markets are where the really skilled make most of their profits

You make more in bull markets than you lose in bear markets:

@AndyHazelton of course the GFS is wrong. But the AIGFS seems to be in the clouds compared to google and ECAI througout the global tropics. If it too similar to the GFS

Reupping this because AIGFS has no sign of the Ghostcane in the Gulf that the GFS has. Looks like too much shear for anything organized to get going.

@TexasMoran @RT_com again, tell me how a warring party that tries to kill civilians manages to kill a whole 4? Maybe stop listening to MSNBC and CNN

@DerekOrtt @RT_com If you can tell me what legitimate military targets there are in apartment towers and markets, I'd love to here. If I had to guess, the dorm was a drone malfunction or a shot down drone. So why does Putin fantasize about nuking Mar-a-Lago?

Russian gas tanker comes back from Antwerp, Belgium MINED — FSB prevents terror act It's confirmed that the magnetic mines were made by one of NATO countries Before entering Belgian port, the tanker was asked to hold a few days as the port wasn't ready 'due to workers' strike'

@TexasMoran @RT_com If putin really wanted to kill civilians, there would have been 40,000 killed sunday in kyiv. Instead, there were 4

@DerekOrtt @RT_com Ukrainians killing Russian civilians is not the goal. Putin killing Ukrainian civilians is absolutely his goal. He came to power faking Islamic terror attacks against Russians. He is the Hitler of the 21st Century.

@TexasMoran @RT_com You mean the ones who bombed a dorm killing 21 kids?

@RT_com Your boss Vlad looking for an excuse to attack Belgium? Terrorists shoot missiles into apartment buildings to kill civilians. You are the terrorists, you do know that, right?

@TropicalTidbits I've accepted that I need to accept AI. That is the first step in not being replaced by it

Some random thoughts on the new era: As AI steadily creeps into our work in the fields of meteorology and programming, there is an inevitable uneasiness associated with "losing control" and "becoming obsolete" as human developers and scientists. It's a fear I've occasionally felt, anyway, and I know I'm not alone. I used quotes because, while these are valid feelings, I don't think they must be reality. The process of performing work is evolving as agents do more of it, but the impetus for that work is unchanged. We are the driving force of inspiration and curiosity that births our work in the first place. Taking ownership is the way to preserve autonomy and hard skills, and we're entering an era where that must be a personal, conscious choice. If you're a student, you must pursue knowledge and stay hungry, lest silicon crutches leave you with passing grades but no ability. Harness AI to enhance your learning process, but never yield your understanding to it. Only you can ensure that. If you're a programmer, AI is a dramatic accelerant - use it! It is the future of software. But insist on retaining ownership of your projects. Be a nosy manager, a steering influence on design decisions, and an intentional critic. The dopamine hit of pressing will eventually wrest authorship from you otherwise. If you're a scientist, AI is either expert-level in your field or will be someday. But science is still advanced by PIs, not AIs. Curiosity about the universe is a defining human trait - keep your curious hands on the rudder. Find the cutting edge and ride it; chances are you will advance the boundary with AI assistance far more than AI will alone. Much about this new era is intimidating, but also exciting. I say grab it all by the horns and harness these capabilities for doing good in the world and your own life. Just choose continuously to protect your own sovereignty and humanity. Life is ours to live. #NotWrittenByABot

@rushtropicalwx OISST is a fair bit warmer. Think we have a nice SAL outbreak ongoing at the moment throwing off the analysis

Mid latittudes warm, canary current cold, positive PMM, El Nino Building, if we get saharan dust on top of that then its all over. The odds are not in favor of Atlantic Hurricanes. University of Arizona got me thinking. I think they might dial back their June Forecasyt.

@barcann I see it. Of course, I also use the chronological timeline, not the algo timeline

I am shadow banned, I believe. very few people see my posts. Just in case someone needs something to smile about today, I am posting this.

@WxRiskGrains @tbrite89 as am I

@tbrite89 I'm getting strange messages from you claiming that you need my support for a podcast. I think you've been hacked Tony

2026 WxProbe NATL Hurricane Season Forecast: May Update This update presents a significant downward revision from my April "First Look" outlook. The adjustments better reflect historical analog constraints, intensifying El Niño trends, and projected sea surface temperature (SST) configurations during the August–October (ASO) peak. Seasonal Activity Projections: Named Storms: 9–13 (11) Hurricanes: 3–5 (4) Major Hurricanes: 1–3 (2) ACE: 40–90 (65) Note: Single figures in parentheses represent the official seasonal totals forecast by WxProbe. The surrounding ranges represent standard WxProbe verification windows (allowable margins of error: +/- 2 named storms, +/- 1 hurricane, +/- 1 major hurricane, and +/- 25 ACE). Historical Analog Evaluation: The baseline composite includes six key analogs optimized for the unique 2026 atmospheric and thermodynamic setup: 2015, 1997, 2009, 2002, 2018, and 2023. * Six-Year Composite Average: 12.5 Named Storms/4.8 Hurricanes/2.0 Major Hurricanes/82.5 ACE. * Composite Oceanic Niño Index (ONI): 1.5°C during the ASO peak. * Forecast Adjustment Justification: Present expectations favor a significantly stronger, more mature El Niño event than the 1.5°C analog mean, resembling a “super” El Niño scenario. Consequently, my final forecast targets lean lower than the raw six-year composite averages…though modern (1995-2025) baseline warmth prevents a total collapse. Primary Seasonal Drivers: 1. Dominant Moderate-to-Strong El Niño Signal: The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) May 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion notes current neutral conditions, but assigns a 61% probability of El Niño development during the May–July window. Relevant models continue to project a robust, mature event by peak season. The expected atmospheric responses via the altered Walker Circulation include the following: * Walker Circulation Disruption: Deep convective thunderstorms venting over the eastern Pacific force a massive eastward shift in the upper-level loop. This drives large-scale subsidence (sinking dry air) directly over northern South America and the Caribbean, capping the atmosphere and suppressing upward thunderstorm convection. * Increased Wind Shear: Accelerated high-altitude westerly winds clash with low-level easterly trade winds. This severe vertical wind shear tilts and physically rips apart developing tropical depressions before they can organize. * Altered Steering: A weakened, fractured Bermuda High limits favorable long-track westward migration, deflecting weak systems northward into hostile mid-latitude environments. 2. Non-Record, Polarized Atlantic SST Profile: Atmospheric suppression should *not* face the historic thermal resistance seen in 2023. Specifically, current basin conditions exhibit a highly stark, split configuration: * Gulf of Mexico Marine Heatwave: Sea surface temperatures and deep-ocean heat content are at near-record heights, tracking +1.0°C above the climatological 30-year average. This localized heat engine poses an increased risk for rapid intensification for any storm entering this part of the basin. * Central and Eastern MDR: The tropical Atlantic corridor has cooled dramatically from the 2023–2024 marine heatwaves, tracking near or even slightly below normal. This introduces a minor Atlantic Niña-like signature. * Thermodynamic Insufficiency: Without widespread, basin-wide record warmth, the tropical Atlantic lacks the thermal insulation/depth needed to counteract El Niño's hostile wind fields. 3. Verification Against Pure El Niño Analogs: To properly isolate the true atmospheric mechanics, we need to classify the historical analogs into three distinct structural eras based on their spatial SST profiles: Era 1: Total Suppression Era (1997 & 2015) = Widespread Cold Basin Era 2: Standard Suppression Era (2002 & 2009) = Neutral/Quiet MDR Baseline Era 3: Thermal Discrepancy Era (2018 & 2023) = Warm Basins/Variable El Niños * The Four Primary Core Analogs (1997, 2002, 2009, 2015): These seasons act as our primary atmospheric baseline. By isolating just these four core years, we get an average of 10.0 Named Storms, 3.5 Hurricanes, and 1.8 major hurricanes, respectively. They represent the standard-to-strong Pacific (El Nino) suppression acting on a non-hyperactive Atlantic basin. * The Relevancy of the Secondary Analogs (2018 & 2023): While not the main drivers, 2018 and 2023 are critical additions to the broad composite. The 2018 season featured a weak/borderline El Niño, but serves as a vital thermodynamic match for today’s extreme warm Gulf of Mexico. 2023 represents a strong Pacific El Niño, but remains a record-shattering warm-basin outlier…whose extreme MDR heat significantly neutralized the Pacific shear. * Analog Exclusion (2006): 2006 is entirely excluded from the composite of all non-Modoki-El Niño events during the most recent active/warm AMO phase. Because 2006 featured a weak El Niño that developed unusually late in the summer, its atmospheric footprint fails to capture the rapid, early-season onset and strong-to-super intensity expected from this forthcoming 2026 Pacific event. Climatological Implications for Late-Season Activity: The suppressing effects of a strong El Niño characteristically maximize during post-peak and late-season windows (late September through November) as the Pacific event reaches maturity. While the North Atlantic basin produced well-above-normal late-season activity over the past few climate cycles, 2026 will likely display the opposite trend. For historical context, the selected pure El Niño analogs generated a 52.8% reduction in late-season activity compared to the active-era (1995–2025) average. Consequently, a highly abrupt, suppressed finish to the 2026 season is expected after September. Rationale for the specific Point Targets: WxProbe has set the official point targets at 11 Named Storms, 4 Hurricanes, 2 Major Hurricanes, and 65 ACE to best balance large-scale global atmospheric suppression against localized modern basin warmth. * Named Storm Range 9–13 (Target: 11): This range was chosen over the lower 8–12 bracket under strong consideration. While El Niño should effectively shut down the eastern MDR to long-track African easterly waves, extreme marine heatwaves lingering in the GOMEX and subtropical Atlantic will act as a secondary breeding ground. As a result, stalling cold fronts and non-tropical lows over these ultra-warm waters can easily spin up short-lived, homegrown systems. This localized environment will likely pad the final named storm count to 11. * Hurricane Range 3–5 (Target: 4): This particular window is reduced from the 4–6 range projected in April to maximize WxProbe verification metrics. Because a strong-to-super El Niño exerts a powerful cap on the atmosphere, hostile vertical wind shear will prevent many homegrown named storms from achieving full hurricane intensity. A point target of 4 hurricanes anchors tightly to the core four analog mean (3.5)…while accounting for the modern climate baseline. * Major Hurricane Range 1–3 (Target: 2): This window is selected over a lower 0–2 range to account for the high-end intensity risks in a suppressed year. While the overall environment is hostile, the enhanced heat content in the Gulf of Mexico provides a volatile energy source. This leaves statistical room for 1 or 2 systems to undergo rapid intensification into major hurricanes in the western portion of the basin or GOMEX (e.g., Isidore/Lili 2002), and another potentially in the MDR…matching the core analog mean (1.75) while respecting modern thermal environments. * ACE Range 40–90 (Target: 65): This range centers precisely on a target of 65 to reflect a heavily truncated season. Hostile wind shear, mid-level dry air, and a weakened Bermuda High will severely limit storm longevity and track lengths by negating long-track westward progression. This keeps seasonal energy output well below the active-era (1995-2025) norm. However, a target of 65 sits slightly above the aforementioned core four analog mean (56) to allow for high energy generation from any short-track, intense systems over the ultra-warm subtropical waters. Next Update: I will issue the definitive seasonal forecast around the middle of June. In the meantime, it’ll be most interesting to see if the MDR can warm above the most recent climatological levels and how the overall SST profile may change over the succeeding 30 days.

@TexasMoran until paxton makes everyone aware of Talerico. Talerico will do no better than Wendy Davis

@DerekOrtt You know the media is portraying Talarico as a Christian and a moderate. We may know that is a lie, half of more of the electorate won't.

Too bad that being the 'MAGA' candidate will be punished in a general election by people who have forgotten Biden's open borders and inflation, especially as US inflation is reaching Biden levels.

@mattlanza it's what shitty goaltending gets you

Poor Buffalo.

@wxdoc @BuffaloSabres that was pure domination tonight

@DerekOrtt @BuffaloSabres True. Hopefully they hold this lead.

What is going on with the @BuffaloSabres? Come on guys, get it together!