DixieChasing

Man... I ain't even going to lie, part of me wants to go see the snow in Eastern TN. I just got a feeling it's going to do something wild up that way.

DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY! We are waking up to a moderate risk upgrade this morning for Monday's severe weather event. All hazard risks have increased. I'll dive deep into this in this mornings video explaining everything. Individual outlooks per the SPC are below. Strong tornadoes & hurricane force 75+ MPH wind gust are possible with these storms.

YESTERDAY: So I didn't work my usual afternoon/evening forecast shift; I was on the road with weather programs in Geneva, Evergreen, and Thomasville. The program at the Thomasville Public Library was at 5:00 (and thanks to everyone who came out to hear me!). It is rare for me to do a program at that hour of the day, but we need more trained spotters in Clarke County, and I wanted to make it happen for them. Naturally, the day I was not on the evening forecast shift was a day when the forecast went haywire. For most of Alabama it was just rain with some thunder, but a few storms reached severe limits with large hail and strong winds. High resolution model data suggested relatively weak dynamic support and meager instability, with just a low severe weather risk. SPC didn't even have a "marginal risk" defined in their day two outlook Wednesday. A risk was added yesterday morning, but for hail (not wind or tornadoes). Concerning the storm that moved through eastern Jefferson County, this is the sequence of events... *A severe thunderstorm warning was issued at 3:21; Pinson and Trussville were in the polygon. *Drew McCombs and the crew working for me at the Alabama Weather Network went with live coverage. They did a really good job. It likely that a small tornado moved through parts of Pinson. Trussville damage was either a weak tornado or a gustnado. NWS Birmingham will do their survey this morning. This wasn't on the bingo card for yesterday. Takeaways... *Predicting the future is hard *All models are wrong, some are useful *When it comes to thunderstorms, expect the unexpected *Pay close attention to severe thunderstorm warnings *Have the Alabama Weather Network app on your phone; push notifications were excellent during the event yesterday. I will post the survey results when they come in. There has been some pretty nasty criticism of me on social media since yesterday, which mostly was deserved. But remember, you. can't hurt my feelings; I have no feelings left to hurt after 47 years of this. If I had expected those kind of storms, I would have canceled the talks in Geneva, Evergreen and Thomasville. But again Drew and the AWN team were on top of it in my absence. And, thankfully the weather will be very quiet around here for the next week.