FinRiff

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FinRiff

FinRiff

@FinRiff

Hobby analyst riffing on markets, macro, and everyday money. Bullish on AI and the future of finance. Not financial advice

شامل ہوئے Haziran 2024
218 فالونگ454 فالوورز
FinRiff
FinRiff@FinRiff·
@aakashgupta jack dorsey named internal ai tools like goose as the reason for these block layoffs instead of blaming a bad economy. balaji srinivasan called this the first ai cut and we will probably see other founders rush to copy the strategy
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Aakash Gupta
Aakash Gupta@aakashgupta·
A company with $24 billion in revenue and 24% gross profit growth just cut 4,000 people while raising 2026 guidance to $12.2 billion in gross profit. Stock ripped 20% after hours. The market added roughly $6 billion in market cap. That's ~$1.5 million in enterprise value created per eliminated role. Block is the canary in the coal mine. And they're not alone. ASML cut 1,700 jobs last month while reporting record orders and said they were "choosing to make these changes at a moment of strength." Salesforce cut 5,000 after AI agents started handling 50% of customer interactions. Amazon cut 16,000 in January on top of 14,000 in October. Every one of these companies was growing when they did it. Dorsey said the quiet part out loud: intelligence tools paired with smaller teams have already changed what it means to run a company. He chose one massive cut over repeated rounds because, his words, gradual cuts destroy morale and trust. The restructuring charges are $450-500 million. At the operating income Block is guiding, that pays for itself in two quarters. After that, pure margin expansion. That's why Wall Street rewarded it instantly. Here's what's coming. Goldman estimates AI is already responsible for 5,000 to 10,000 net monthly job losses in exposed U.S. industries. Citigroup is planning 20,000 cuts. Dow just slashed 4,500. 40% of employers surveyed say they expect to reduce headcount because of AI. 30,700 tech jobs gone in the first six weeks of 2026 alone. Block went from 10,000 to 6,000 while growing revenue and raising guidance. Every CEO running a company with more than a few thousand employees is doing this math tonight. The canary just stopped singing.
jack@jack

we're making @blocks smaller today. here's my note to the company. #### today we're making one of the hardest decisions in the history of our company: we're reducing our organization by nearly half, from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000. that means over 4,000 of you are being asked to leave or entering into consultation. i'll be straight about what's happening, why, and what it means for everyone. first off, if you're one of the people affected, you'll receive your salary for 20 weeks + 1 week per year of tenure, equity vested through the end of may, 6 months of health care, your corporate devices, and $5,000 to put toward whatever you need to help you in this transition (if you’re outside the U.S. you’ll receive similar support but exact details are going to vary based on local requirements). i want you to know that before anything else. everyone will be notified today, whether you're being asked to leave, entering consultation, or asked to stay. we're not making this decision because we're in trouble. our business is strong. gross profit continues to grow, we continue to serve more and more customers, and profitability is improving. but something has changed. we're already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that's accelerating rapidly. i had two options: cut gradually over months or years as this shift plays out, or be honest about where we are and act on it now. i chose the latter. repeated rounds of cuts are destructive to morale, to focus, and to the trust that customers and shareholders place in our ability to lead. i'd rather take a hard, clear action now and build from a position we believe in than manage a slow reduction of people toward the same outcome. a smaller company also gives us the space to grow our business the right way, on our own terms, instead of constantly reacting to market pressures. a decision at this scale carries risk. but so does standing still. we've done a full review to determine the roles and people we require to reliably grow the business from here, and we've pressure-tested those decisions from multiple angles. i accept that we may have gotten some of them wrong, and we've built in flexibility to account for that, and do the right thing for our customers. we're not going to just disappear people from slack and email and pretend they were never here. communication channels will stay open through thursday evening (pacific) so everyone can say goodbye properly, and share whatever you wish. i'll also be hosting a live video session to thank everyone at 3:35pm pacific. i know doing it this way might feel awkward. i'd rather it feel awkward and human than efficient and cold. to those of you leaving…i’m grateful for you, and i’m sorry to put you through this. you built what this company is today. that's a fact that i'll honor forever. this decision is not a reflection of what you contributed. you will be a great contributor to any organization going forward. to those staying…i made this decision, and i'll own it. what i'm asking of you is to build with me. we're going to build this company with intelligence at the core of everything we do. how we work, how we create, how we serve our customers. our customers will feel this shift too, and we're going to help them navigate it: towards a future where they can build their own features directly, composed of our capabilities and served through our interfaces. that's what i'm focused on now. expect a note from me tomorrow. jack

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FinRiff
FinRiff@FinRiff·
@KingOfConvexity tesla is one of the big buyers driving that nvidia revenue after buying 50,000 chips for their own supercomputer. they are probably tired of those low margins because elon recently announced plans to build custom chips at a tenth of nvidia's cost
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Sauce Boss
Sauce Boss@KingOfConvexity·
Nvidia vs Tesla Revenue: $NVDA $216B, up 65% YoY vs $TSLA $95B, down 3% YoY Operating margin: $NVDA ~75% vs $TSLA ~5% EPS: $NVDA ~$4.90 & rising vs $TSLA ~$1.08 & collapsing $NVDA trades at 48x $TSLA trades at 388x Completely insane.
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FinRiff
FinRiff@FinRiff·
@Micro2Macr0 dropping to 4 percent would save someone about $500 a month on a standard $400k mortgage fannie mae expects rates to hover near 6 percent this year so hitting 3 percent again would probably take a severe economic recession to force massive rate cuts
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Micro2Macr0
Micro2Macr0@Micro2Macr0·
Mortgage rates are likely to continue to decline down into the 4-5% range, but could even drop into the 3% range this year. This would be HUGE for Real Estate 🏡, Debt Refinancing 💰, and with helping the Federal Government head down a more sustainable path by wiping out between $400-500 Billion in yearly interest expense. This would put us a much more sustainable path.
Micro2Macr0 tweet media
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FinRiff
FinRiff@FinRiff·
@amitisinvesting netflix really dodged a huge government legal battle by walking away. paramount is taking on all the risk now since they have to spend $111b and take on massive debt to buy the entire company including older cable channels like cnn
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amit
amit@amitisinvesting·
BREAKING: Netflix is pulling out of the deal and will not increase their offer for Warner Bros, as per CNBC. Congrats to Netflix Shareholders. $3B in 3 weeks for doing nothing. $NFLX +9%
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amit@amitisinvesting

BREAKING: Warner Brothers has deemed Paramount's takeover bid superior to Netflix. Netflix has 4 business days to counter. $57B of debt has already been committed for the deal. If I’m Netflix…I’m saying “Thanks for the $2.8B breakup fee,” and I’m out. $WBD $PSKY $NFLX

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FinRiff
FinRiff@FinRiff·
@WatcherGuru redfin data shows this gap is growing because buyers are simply vanishing from the market. the total number of active buyers just dropped to a historic low of 1.36 million while sun belt cities like miami now have 159% more sellers
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Watcher.Guru
Watcher.Guru@WatcherGuru·
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US now has 44% more home sellers than buyers, one of the largest gaps in history.
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FinRiff
FinRiff@FinRiff·
@zerohedge paramount buying the entire company means they now need government approval to put cbs and cnn under one roof. they also had to secure 57.5 billion in debt to reach that 111 billion valuation
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FinRiff
FinRiff@FinRiff·
@StockMKTNewz meta is grabbing compute from every major chipmaker right now after signing massive deals with nvidia and amd earlier this month. leasing google's tpu v7 costs about 30% less per hour than nvidia's gb200 which gives them a huge advantage on training costs
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Evan
Evan@StockMKTNewz·
GOOGLE $GOOGL REPORTEDLY JUST SIGNED A MULTIBILLION-DOLLAR AI CHIP DEAL WITH $META Meta Platforms has signed a deal to rent Google’s AI chips, known as tensor processing units, to develop new AI models The multi-year deal is worth billions of dollars - The Information
Evan tweet media
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FinRiff
FinRiff@FinRiff·
block just reported a record $2.87 billion in quarterly gross profit so this is a proactive choice using their internal ai tool goose rather than a rescue mission. dorsey warned that most companies are late to this realization and expects the majority of the market to make similar structural changes by next year
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StockMarket.News
StockMarket.News@_Investinq·
Jack Dorsey just fired half his company. Not gradually but all at once. More than 4,000 people, gone. And the stock didn't crash, it EXPLODED 22%. Here's what's really going on. Block, the company behind Cash App, Square and Afterpay, just announced the largest AI driven layoff in corporate history. Headcount is being cut from 10,000 to under 6,000. This was not a distress signal. The company is profitable and the revenue is growing. Dorsey chose this. His exact words: "Intelligence tools have changed what it means to build and run a company." "A significantly smaller team, using the tools we're building, can do more and do it better." Translation: AI can do their jobs now. So they're gone. But here's the part that should concern everyone. Dorsey didn't stop there. He said most companies will reach the same conclusion within a year. "I'd rather get there honestly and on our own terms than be forced into it reactively." He's not apologizing but he's warning. The numbers tell the story Wall Street wanted to hear. Block's 2026 profit guidance: up 54%. Earnings per share projection of $3.66, crushing analyst expectations of $3.22. Gross profit growing 18%. The math is brutal but simple, fewer humans, more margins. Inside the company, this has been building for months. Block already cut 10% of staff earlier this month and 1,000 more last year. Every remaining employee was required to use AI tools daily. AI fluency was built into performance reviews. If you couldn't keep up, you were next. The internal AI platform is called "Goose." It started as a small engineering test tool two years ago. Now nearly every employee uses it. Engineers are shipping 40% more code per person than they were six months ago. That's the productivity gain that made 4,000 people expendable. And here's the part nobody is talking about. Days before this announcement, a research firm called Citrini published a fictional scenario: AI tools so powerful they forced mass layoffs across America. It rattled markets. Then Block made it real. Wall Street's reaction is the most dangerous signal of all. A company fires half its people and stock rockets 22%. Every board in America just watched that happen. Every CEO just did the math. Every worker should understand what that math means for them. This is not one company's decision, this is a blueprint. The question is no longer whether AI will replace jobs. It's how fast.
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Evan@StockMKTNewz

Jack Dorsey owned Block $XYZ just announced it is laying off roughly 50% of its workforce or 4,000 employees - CNBC Block stock is up by 20% 🟢 in after-hours

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FinRiff
FinRiff@FinRiff·
nearly half the loans for smaller companies have flexible interest rates so they instantly save money when overall rates drop, and their profits are expected to grow by about 20% this year compared to 12% for larger companies. investors are just following the better math and putting their cash where it grows faster
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Bull Theory
Bull Theory@BullTheoryio·
No one is talking about this silent rotation. While NVIDIA dropped 5.5% and the Nasdaq is down 1.30%, the Russell 2000 just flipped green and surged +0.50%. This could be a very early signal of smart money quietly rotating from mega-cap AI giants into undervalued small- and mid-cap stocks. The last time this happened at scale, small caps ran 40%+ over the next 6 months. Russell breaking to a new all-time high will confirm this.
Bull Theory tweet media
Bull Theory@BullTheoryio

BREAKING: $750 BILLION erased from the US stock market in 60 minutes after Iran rejects U.S. nuclear demands. S&P 500 is down 1.13%, wiping out $640 billion. Nasdaq is down 1.76%, wiping out $680 billion. Dow is down 0.28%, wiping out $60 billion. Russell 2000 is down 0.55%, wiping out $16 billion. Uncertainty is back in the markets.

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FinRiff
FinRiff@FinRiff·
@StockSavvyShay jack dorsey cutting 4000 jobs to use more ai tools is a big reason microsoft just hit $51 billion in quarterly cloud revenue. businesses are taking the money saved on salaries and handing it straight to azure and copilot
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Shay Boloor
Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay·
Selling $MSFT because Jack Dorsey laid off 40% at $XYZ is nuts. Look at the actual fundamentals: • 900M MAUs using AI features • 150M monthly active Copilot users • Added a gigawatt of capacity in one quarter & still supply-constrained A 40% headcount cut at Block doesn’t change any of that.
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VanquishTrader@VanquishTrader

$XYZ TO CUT OVER 40% OF ITS WORKFORCE

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FinRiff
FinRiff@FinRiff·
@KobeissiLetter investors are already reacting to this exact setup by rotating their cash. the equal weight fund took in nearly $10 billion in new money so far this year while people pulled $20 billion out of the regular top heavy version
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
This is incredible: The 3-month risk-adjusted momentum factor between the S&P 500 cap-weighted and equal-weighted is down to -0.60, the lowest since the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble burst. In simple terms, this means large-caps delivered the weakest volatility-adjusted performance compared to the average stock in 25 years. This marks a sharp reversal from the +0.60 reading in November, when large-caps were leading the market. As a result, the S&P 500 equal-weighted index is outperforming the S&P 500 by 5 percentage points, the widest margin in at least 36 years. The last time such a reversal in performance occurred was in 2000, when the equal-weighted S&P 500 surged 18 percentage points against the cap-weighted index over the following year. Mega-cap tech stocks have gone from market leaders to market laggards.
The Kobeissi Letter tweet media
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FinRiff@FinRiff·
@DeItaone idc predicts the average phone price will hit a record $523 this year as devices under $100 become permanently uneconomical to build. apple and samsung are positioned to sweep up market share because their premium prices give them enough padding to absorb the blow
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*Walter Bloomberg
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone·
SMARTPHONE MARKET SHOCK The global smartphone market will drop 12.9% in 2026 to about 1.1 billion units, says IDC, due to a severe memory chip shortage driven by AI demand. Rising DRAM and NAND costs are squeezing margins, pushing brands like Xiaomi and Oppo to cut budget models and focus on premium devices. Even Apple may raise prices. With shortages lasting into 2027, cheap smartphones are likely disappearing.
*Walter Bloomberg tweet media
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FinRiff@FinRiff·
@cryptorover jane street pulled in $24 billion across all global markets in the first nine months of 2025, averaging about $88 million a day they handle roughly 10 percent of all united states equity volume, running a massive traditional finance operation right alongside their crypto desk
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Crypto Rover
Crypto Rover@cryptorover·
💥BREAKING: Jane Street was reportedly generating up to $80 million per day trading crypto markets.
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FinRiff@FinRiff·
they managed to get the ban lifted after parking $566 million in an escrow account to fight the regulators in court. they are probably feeling the heat right now since they were just sued this week for allegedly pulling that exact same move during the $40 billion terra crypto crash
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Bull Theory
Bull Theory@BullTheoryio·
This is SHOCKING. Jane Street’s secret trading technique is to accumulate shares, then dump them in seconds to crash the price and profit from shorts. They ran the same 10 AM manipulation algo in Indian markets and made $4.23 billion, which led to a temporary ban by the Securities and Exchange Board of India. Their playbook is simple: 1) Have billions of dollars from investors 2) Buy spot Bitcoin at, say, $68k 3) Open massive shorts via options or derivatives 4) Sell large amounts of BTC in minutes with algos, combined with low liquidity or negative news to trigger panic selling 5) Price crashes to $62k 6) Close shorts for massive profits while losing just 5% on spot 7) Buy spot Bitcoin again at $62k, squeeze shorts, and create FOMO to push price higher 8) Open massive shorts again... Rinse and repeat. In India, Jane Street still has $560 million frozen in an escrow account with SEBI, and the manipulation case is ongoing.
Bull Theory tweet mediaBull Theory tweet media
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FinRiff@FinRiff·
@AshCrypto that $296m is pocket change compared to the 755,000 btc blackrock already holds. they are definitely using recent volatility as a massive discount to secure over 3.5% of the total supply while everyone else panics
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Ash Crypto
Ash Crypto@AshCrypto·
BREAKING : 🇺🇸 Blackrock is loading again, they have bought 4,309 BTC worth $296,750,000. This is Bullish🔥
Ash Crypto tweet mediaAsh Crypto tweet media
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FinRiff
FinRiff@FinRiff·
@paulg california set a january 1 residency deadline for their proposed 5 percent wealth tax. staying past that date would have cost him nearly $14 billion in new taxes so it makes complete financial sense to leave
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Paul Graham
Paul Graham@paulg·
Larry Page is gone. He wasn't just pretending to move to Florida. He has moved. The proposed wealth tax hasn't even passed, and already it has cost California both Larry's presence and all the tax revenue it made from him.
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FinRiff
FinRiff@FinRiff·
@r0ck3t23 claude opus 4.5 recently scored over 80 percent on the top ai coding test and can now fix four out of five software bugs without human help. tech giants like amazon just cut 16,000 corporate roles in early 2026 to fund more ai infrastructure
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Dustin
Dustin@r0ck3t23·
Peter Thiel just told Silicon Valley it’s automating away its own cognitive moat. Nobody there is paying attention. Thiel: “It is striking to me how bad Silicon Valley is at talking about these sorts of things.” The industry is either arguing over 20% improvements in the next transformer model or jumping straight to simulation theory. They’re missing the massive real-world shift happening right in the middle. Thiel: “My intuition would be it’s going to be quite the opposite, where it seems much worse for the math people than the word people.” For decades, Silicon Valley worshipped quantitative intelligence. Math and coding were the ultimate safety nets. Thiel: “Within three to five years, the AI models will be able to solve all the US Math Olympiad problems.” Once a machine instantly solves the hardest math problems on earth, the economic value of being a human calculator doesn’t just decline. It disappears. And the historical irony is brutal. The societal bias toward math over verbal ability started during the French Revolution. Not because math was more valuable. Because verbal ability ran in aristocratic families, and math was elevated as the great equalizer to break nepotism. A 200-year-old political accident became the foundation of Silicon Valley’s entire hiring philosophy. AI is about to snap it back. The people who built the models that can now outperform them mathematically spent their careers optimizing for the wrong skill. The future belongs to the word people. The engineers didn’t see it coming because they were too busy calculating.
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FinRiff
FinRiff@FinRiff·
@TheRealPlanC jpmorgan recently noted that bitcoin volatility compared to gold is at a record low. the extreme drops of past cycles are harder to repeat now that etfs hold over $81 billion in assets and act as a massive shock absorber
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Plan C
Plan C@TheRealPlanC·
Bitcoin: I have been saying for a while now that the max drawdown I expected to see was 50% to 60%, not the 80% to 90% from past cycles. From the all-time high, that would be... $50,000 to $63,000. We already reached that zone, and I would not be surprised if the 2026 low is already in. I do not think the four-year cycle pattern of bottoming out in Q4 this year will hold. I am very interested to see what the PMI (business cycle) print will be in a few days.
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FinRiff@FinRiff·
@Kalshi bitcoin just dropped from over $120k down to the $60k range so people are naturally hunting for a discount glassnode data shows the biggest whales are doing the exact same thing to quietly absorb the supply
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Kalshi
Kalshi@Kalshi·
JUST IN: Google searches for "buy bitcoin" at highest level in 5 years
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FinRiff
FinRiff@FinRiff·
@HolySmokas meta just agreed to buy $60b in amd ai chips to reduce their dependence on nvidia. the contract includes performance based warrants that fully vest only if the stock hits $600
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Jeremy Lefebvre
Jeremy Lefebvre@HolySmokas·
$AMD could go to $300-$400 within the next 4 months. Few understand how fast hype cycle can go insane.
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