The Infrastructure Thesis

@KobeissiLetter PPI 13 month high. Powell says energy will make it worse. and the food inflation from Hormuz fertilizer disruption hasn't even shown up in the data yet.

BREAKING: Losses across all three major US stock market indices exceed -1% on the day as Middle East tensions escalate and PPI Inflation hits 13 month high.

@WatcherGuru so Powell just killed the rate cut narrative out loud. if energy prices drive inflation higher, the Fed can't ease. and rate hike probability already crossed rate cut probability last week according to the Atlanta Fed.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Jerome Powell warns rising energy prices from US-Israeli war with Iran will drive inflation higher.

FOMC rate decision: hold. But the rate decision itself isn't the story — Powell's press conference is. First thing: he showed up in a purple tie. If you've been following the press conference breakdowns, you know what purple signals. (Hawkish meets dovish. Neither tightening nor easing. Right down the middle.) Q: Is this year's elevated inflation coming from oil prices? A: "Tariffs and core goods haven't shown the progress we were hoping for. That seems to be the bigger factor." Core inflation is sitting at 3%. Powell said tariffs account for somewhere between half and three-quarters of that. Oil isn't the main villain here — tariffs are. Q: Is the oil price shock temporary? A: "Higher oil prices will put downward pressure on spending and employment, and upward pressure on inflation. Beyond that, nobody really knows." Growth slows, hiring weakens, prices rise — all at the same time. That's the setup people are worried about. Powell drew the line though: "I would reserve the term stagflation for a much more serious set of circumstances. That's not where we are." Q: What about employment risk? A: "Over the last six months, stripping out the noise, private sector net job creation is essentially zero. That's without precedent in our history. I wouldn't call that comfortable." Net job creation = new jobs minus jobs lost. Zero means the private sector hasn't actually grown headcount in six months. Q: The Strait of Hormuz situation is disrupting supply chains beyond just oil. How worried are you about broader inflation? A: "This is entirely outside our control. Like everyone else, we're waiting. How long this lasts is the key question. There isn't much else we can do." The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow chokepoint in the Middle East through which roughly 20% of global oil supply passes. With the Iran war driving closure threats, the ripple effects go well beyond crude — shipping rates, raw materials, the works. Q: If Kevin Warsh isn't confirmed by May 15th, will you stay? A: "I'll serve as chair pro tempore. And I have no intention of leaving the board while the investigation is ongoing." Background: Trump wants Powell out — both as chair and as a Fed governor. Powell's chair term ends in May 2026, but his governor term runs to January 2028. Trump needs both resignations. Today Powell made clear he's not giving either one. On top of that, Trump's DOJ subpoenaed Powell over the Fed's headquarters renovation. A judge threw it out, but the prosecutor is appealing. Republican Senator Thom Tillis has said he'll block Warsh's confirmation until that investigation wraps. If the legal fight drags on, Powell stays in the seat the entire time — by design. Short-timer energy is a real thing. Even Trump can't move a soldier in his last days of service. Market reaction Stocks fell to session lows after the press conference. Brent crude briefly topped $109 a barrel. Dollar dipped right after Powell spoke, then reversed and pushed higher as the remarks continued. Gold dropped below $4,900 an ounce — a six-week low — pressured by the stronger dollar. Scoreboard: equities down, oil up, dollar up, gold down. Powell threw cold water on rate cut hopes. Markets noticed. Powell is in his final stretch. The carefully hedged language is gone. He's saying what he means now. Today he wasn't a dove with hawk tendencies. He was straight hawk. And markets are still digesting it. #FOMC

@B__Digs @Gyujin_9701 ATM is a ceiling that may never get used. One of these is a confirmed dilution path. The other isn't.

@InfraThesis @Gyujin_9701 $NBIS dilution will occur 50% from here.

$NBIS 26년 가이드에 CapEx는 $16~20B 그 중 60%는 현금 + Q4 운영현금흐름 + 장기 계약 선급금으로 충당 가능하다 했고 나머지 40%는 부채 우선 + 고객 신용 기반 담보 대출 + ATM + 자회사 자산 활용해서 충당한다고 했다 이걸 보고 $NBIS bull 들 중 많은 사람들이 $IREN 과는 다르게 $NBIS 는 주주 가치를 희석시킬 일이 절대 없다라고 단언하곤 했다 @aleabitoreddit 같은 $NBIS bull들은 $IREN 의 $6B ATM 한도를 올리는 것은 당장의 희석이 일어날 것처럼 FUD를 조장했지만 정작 $NBIS 가 $NVDA 한테 $2B 주가 희석 당하는건, 당시 주가가 올라가서 즉시 매도 압력 없다고 비교하면서 $NBIS 올려치기를 했지(희석 시킨 주식이 없어지는 것도 아니고 ㅋㅋ) 이제는 $NBIS 가 $3.75B 규모의 전환사채를 조달한다고 한다 그러면 이 전환사채도 $IREN 과는 질적으로 다른 착한 자금 조달이라고 주장하려나? $NBIS 의 자금 조달의 희석 가능성은 단순히 ATM 한도를 올린 $IREN 보다 훨씬 높은 상황이다 이젠 또 뭐라고 입을 털지 좀 궁금하다 예상을 해보자면 1) $NBIS 의 전환사채는 착한 부채이다, $IREN 의 ATM 과는 완전히 다르다! 전환 프리미엄이 높게 나오면 주가 오를 때만 희석되는 구조고 즉시 매도 압력은 거의 없다! -> $IREN 도 $NBIS 못지 않게 전환사채로 자금 조달했던 경력이 있는 기업이고 프리미엄이 조금 낮은 대신에 엄청 낮은 금리의 쿠폰 발행(제로 금리까지 가기도 했음) = $NBIS 만 다르다고 주장하는 FUD 2) $NBIS 의 전환사채와 $NVDA $2B 자금 조달은 전략적 프레임이고 $IREN 은 쓰레기 자금조달이다! 또 ATM 으로 $6B 조달할거라는 FUD 조장 $IREN 은 $NBIS 만큼 전환사채 조달 잘 하는 기업이고 ATM 한도 올린 것은 부채와 equity의 균형을 맞추기 위한 장치일 뿐이다. 이게 나한테는 어느정도 논리로 들리냐면 '$NBIS 가 $16-20B capex의 40%를 ATM 으로 조달 할 것이다' 수준으로 들림 3) $NBIS 장전 하락은 과도한 반응이다! dip을 사라! $IREN 같은 dip은 쓰레기니까 사지 말고 ㅋㅋㅋ 내가 봤을 때 이렇게 나올 가능성이 크다 내가 당신 대신 글 한편 써줬으니 그대로 쓰면 될듯

@TheSalonDon The physical disruption was real in week 2. The equity repricing came in week 4. Same lag, different commodity.

This is a once every 5 year opportunity to make money in the markets It’s obvious to anyone following that this will be one of the worst oil shocks ever Yet it’s hardly reflected in stock prices This is like when COVID shut down Italy but SPY was still at all time highs

@LayoffAI every CEO watching peers get rewarded for cuts creates a ratchet. it only moves one direction.

Amazon just cut 16,000 people in January. They're now reportedly planning another 14,000 for Q2. Thirty thousand jobs in six months from a single company. And they're not struggling. Revenue is up. AWS is printing money. Bezos is worth $200 billion. This isn't survival mode. This is the new operating model. The targets this time are AWS, Alexa, and what Amazon internally calls "department consolidation." Which is corporate speak for "AI can handle this now, you can go." Meta is doing the same thing. 20% of the company. 16,000 people. Doubling AI spend to $135 billion while cutting the humans who built the platform. JPMorgan estimates $6 billion in annual savings. Bank of America says $8 billion. Wall Street is literally putting a dollar figure on how much your absence is worth. Oracle. 30,000. Same playbook. Raising $50 billion for data centers while gutting 10% of headcount. They don't expect the AI investment to even break even until 2030. But the layoffs start now. Three companies. Roughly 60,000 jobs between them. All announced within weeks of each other. All citing AI. All seeing their stock go up. This is not a coincidence. This is coordination by incentive. Every CEO is watching the others get rewarded for cutting headcount and thinking "why wouldn't I do the same thing." 60 companies. 269,000 people. Updated daily, with trackable sources for every single post.

@elonmusk The audience didn't leave. The product did.

Winning an Oscar has become an embarrassment

@UnicusResearch When private credit marks come down, the banks holding NDFI exposure don't get to mark slowly. That's the contagion path nobody is pricing.

🚨 Banks in trouble. Private credit in trouble. All at the same time, is not a coincidence.🧵 Early this month, the FDIC released data that shows that as of end of 2025, banks in the U.S. lent approximately over $1.4 trillion to NDFIs. In just 15 years, bank lending to NDFIs has grown 2,320%. The private credit is a major subset of the NDFIs.

@thejobchick every company using automated hiring just got a compliance cost they didn't price in. the AI efficiency gain and the legal liability are now on the same balance sheet.

HOLY F: Workday just lost the argument that matters most. A federal judge said their AI hiring tools can be challenged for filtering out applicants over 40. “The algorithm did it” is NOT a defense. If this holds… every company using automated hiring just stepped into legal risk. You’re not crazy... if you’ve applied to 50, 100, 200 jobs and heard nothing… The system itself may be filtering you out. The decision means the plaintiffs may continue pursuing claims that Workday’s technology had a disparate impact on applicants age 40 and older. - SHRM Judge Lin dismissed some California claims and one disability claim, but gave plaintiffs until March 27 to revise and refile.

@unusual_whales sri lanka cutting to a 4-day week to conserve fuel. the hormuz disruption is showing up in gdp calendars now, not just commodity prices.

Sri Lanka announces four-day work week to conserve its scarce fuel reserves as it prepares for a prolonged war in the Middle East

@hanakoxbt 87% betting on feelings is the edge. the market can't get efficient when most participants won't do the math.

> be Jane Street intern > $350k/yr, still a cog > one night find prediction markets > same mispriced probabilities you model at work > except here nobody's competing > 87% of wallets bet on feelings > you run 5 PhD formulas on a google sheet > ceasefire contract at $0.30 - Bayes spits 58% > you buy. CNN posts the headline 40 minutes later > 6 months: +340%. no boss. no bloomberg terminal > steady 7 figures/month. alarm clock deleted > hand in resignation at Jane Street > they offer double to stay > you already forgot where the office is

@Newsforce the food inflation from the hormuz disruption hasn't landed yet. when it does, this story gets a lot more common.

POPEYES FRANCHISE GOES BROKE ON $233M IN CHICKEN One of the largest Popeyes franchise operators in the U.S. just filed for Chapter 11 after losing $18.8 million despite generating about $233 million in sales. The company, Sailormen Inc., has already closed more than 20 locations while thousands of employees wait to see which stores survive the bankruptcy process. Apparently selling mountains of fried chicken still isn’t enough when rent, labor, and food costs all decide to show up angry at the same time. Source: NewsForce

@unusual_whales congressional trades, dark pools, insider activity — all of it streaming into an AI that never sleeps. the edge isn't the data. it's that the model processes it faster than any human analyst can.

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@TaviCosta energy leads by 6 to 8 weeks. the food print from this disruption lands in Q2. policymakers calling it transitory will be technically correct for about 45 more days.

An update on a critical chart: Gasoline prices continue to climb, but attention should now shift to food prices, which have yet to follow. Expect policymakers to call it transitory again, even as resource prices — despite volatility — remain elevated by historical standards. substack.com/home/post/p-19…

@anasalhajji Disrupted shipping, closed export routes, collapsed real estate—that runway just got a lot shorter.

♦️Once the war ends, the full extent of the devastation to the Arab Gulf economies will become clear—and it will ripple outward, indirectly hammering the broader Arab world and dependent economies like Pakistan, Bangladesh and Indonesia. ♦️Today's stark example: Macquarie has withdrawn from a $7 billion deal to acquire a stake in Kuwait's oil pipeline network, explicitly citing the Iran war and the uncertain regional outlook. ♦️The Gulf states have pursued aggressive economic diversification for years: Industrialization and non-oil exports (especially petrochemicals and downstream industries) — now largely paralyzed by disrupted shipping, closed export routes and damaged infrastructure. ♦️Real estate and tourism — sectors that were booming — now effectively shut down amid airspace closures, security fears, and canceled travel. ♦️Overseas investments in the West — a key pillar of sovereign wealth strategy — now under pressure as oil/gas revenues have collapsed, forcing governments to repatriate capital or halt new commitments just to cover domestic shortfalls. ♦️The war isn't just a temporary shock; it's undermining the very foundations of reforms across the region.

@BRICSinfo their revenue model depends on open access. iran's approved list is an existential threat to their fiscal position.

JUST IN: Gulf states urge the US to "neutralize Iran for good," Reuters reports.

@SawyerMerritt austin to las vegas. each expansion is less a business milestone and more a data point on how fast the inference demand floor is rising.

NEWS: Tesla’s Robotaxi service launch in Las Vegas appears to be imminent, as many Model Y vehicles equipped with rear camera washers have been spotted in a parking lot in the suburbs of the city. The cars also have Texas license plates. Only the Model Y robotaxis in Austin have rear camera washers.

@LayoffAI 14 million displaced workers is a human crisis. The compute demand that replaced them doesn't disappear — it compounds.

Andrew Yang is calling it "The Fuckening." That's his actual word for it. And honestly it fits. A CEO of a publicly traded tech company told him directly: "We're firing 15% now. Another 20% in two years. Another 20% after that." There are 70 million white collar workers in this country. Yang projects 20 to 50% of those jobs gone within a few years. The low end of that is 14 million people. The entire 2008 crisis wiped out 8.7 million. The difference this time is the jobs don't come back. A recession ends and companies rehire. This time the work still gets done. It just gets done by software. The position itself stops existing. Nothing expands margins like replacing a $379K employee with a $200/month subscription. We track it all at layoffhedge.com. 58 companies. 254,000 people. And climbing. Yang is writing about what's coming. We're counting what's already here.

@RyanSAdams ETH named as a digital commodity and GENIUS Act stablecoins confirmed not securities. the regulatory ceiling just got removed.

THEY DID IT. The SEC and CFTC just dropped a landmark document that officially classifies crypto assets. They're actually telling us which crypto assets are securities and which ones aren't - by name! THIS IS SOMETHING GENSLER REFUSED TO DO (he focused on prosecuting crypto out of existence) This rule doc gives crypto many of the benefits of the clarity bill - it lifts us out of the gray market - it gives every asset a path. It's almost like the Clarity act just passed by way of regulator. (of course, the actual clarity act will harden all this into legislation and make it irreversible in the event we get another Gensler, we still want it) This rule says there's 5 categories for crypto assets: 1) Digital Commodities - assets tied to a functional, decentralized crypto system (e.g., BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, DOGE). Not securities. (yes, they name them on page 14) 2) Digital Collectibles - NFTs, meme coins, artwork tokens, in-game items. Not securities (fractionalized collectibles may be an exception). 3) Digital Tools - membership tokens, credentials, domain names (e.g., ENS). Not securities. 4) Stablecoins - payment stablecoins under the GENIUS Act are not securities. Other stablecoins, it depends. 5) Digital Securities - tokenized versions of traditional securities. Like tokenized stocks. Always securities. Amazing! This makes so much sense I can't believe it's coming from a regulator. No more enforcement threats to Ethereum developers and crypto exchanges. How about the Howey test? More common sense! If an issuer makes specific promises of managerial efforts from which buyers expect profits, the offering is a security until those promises are fulfilled. Then it's a commodity. The asset itself was never the security, the deal around it was. (E.g. XRP was a security pre launch, became a commodity after). How about stuff like staking and mining? Mining? Not a securities transaction. Staking? Also not a securities transaction, that includes custodial and liquid staking even with LSTs! How about wrapping BTC? Not a securities transaction. Airdrops? NOT SECURITIES. NO MORE GEO BANS PROTECTING AMERICANS from free airdrops. Remember this is a joint doc from the SEC and CFTC, They're actually cooperating on this, no internal strife, this is binding to both. SEC regulates $80-100 trillion assets CFTC regulates $5-10 trillion assets Both of the world's largest capital markets are showing us that crypto assets are here to stay and they're welcome alongside traditional assets. Every country will follow. This is the biggest move toward legitimacy I've seen in all my time in crypto. Maybe bigger than the genius act since is covers all crypto assets. Well done @MichaelSelig and @SECPaulSAtkins. And especially well done to the indefatigable @HesterPeirce. Her fingerprints are all over this, couldn't have happened without her eight years of principles-based curiosity.