Alice

@BrettErickson28 Our oil industry needs oil warfare. In Trump's first term, there was the Russia–Saudi Arabia Oil Price War. It was a massive moment of "energy warfare" that nearly crushed the U.S. shale industry.

@BrettErickson28 I used to think just like Rebecca. Now, I have my doubts. Eventually, we'll see Trump's final choice: the stock market or oil warfare.

If Rebecca says “Rump Regime” one more time I AM going to collapse.

@BrettErickson28 @AppSimplePhone MTG has become more reasonable and nicer since she broke up with Trump. Why is that?🤔😅 This war with Iran isn't pointless or stupid. We must win this war! However, our leaders are weak; although our military is great, neocons haven't had a complete victory in a very long time.

@AppSimplePhone Bingo

Every day that passes, Iran gains greater leverage. This is becoming increasingly clear after the recent statements made by Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser that approximately 1 Billion barrels of oil have taken off the markets as a result of this conflict. When the United States decided to impose the blockade of Iran, it did so not intending for it to be employed as a long-term tool, but a short-term hammer. 13 Days. But now, as it becomes clear to all that the blockade is not producing the effects it needs fast enough, the table has now flipped on the United States. In a best-case scenario (from a US standpoint), Iran can last ~45 days before they are forced to shut-in their oil wells at any appreciable scale. This likely would be extended to ~60 days with additional measures being taken. Unfortunately, the world does not have this luxury. Right now, the world is losing ~13M barrels per day. Multiplied by 2 months, that is another 780M barrels... on top of the 1B already lost per Saudi Aramco (...pretty reliable source). In addition to this, the fertilizer crisis is far more severe in my opinion. Demand destruction, emergency measures, and the like can be taken to at least somewhat counter the dearth of energy supplies, but fertilizer? That will cause food shortages. Allow me to let you in on a little secret: You can't just "not eat" to create demand destruction for global food supply. Washington now is realizing how severe this global catastrophe is becoming, but they are now left without viable avenues to success. And every day that passes? The global catastrophe gets more severe... and Iran gains more leverage.

@BrettErickson28 @XlancerTheGreat The UN is trashy, completely useless!

@XlancerTheGreat lol fair play, fair play. The argument surrounding the toothlessness of the UN may be a debate for another time right now.

@BrettErickson28 @writeinfreedom True

@writeinfreedom I’m not sure it will be. I worry Trump has accepted the loss of the House and Senate in the mid-terms, and will instead double down on this war.

Bloomberg: “The world has burned through oilinventories at a record speed as the Iran war throttles flows from the Persian Gulf… The rapidly shrinking stockpiles mean that the risk of even more extreme price spikes and shortages is getting ever-closer, leaving governments and industries with fewer options to cushion the impact of the loss of more than a billion barrels of supply, two months into the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz.” #economy #oil #markets #middleeastwar

At the request of Pakistan, I'm pausing the jokes about the requests of Pakistan

JUST IN: Panama Canal revenue has reportedly surged +15% since the Iran conflict began.

@NewReaganCaucus Begging Iran is pathetic. Our leaders are pathetic.

The most infuriating thing about the Iran drama is the constant misdirection and updates related to a potential "deal". There won't be a deal. Just stop talking about it, Trump.

Never forget

Ceasefires, especially one-sided ones, have a cost. The longer we sit idle, the more Iran will rearm.

BREAKING: Bahrain has arrested over 40 people connected to Iran’s IRGC.

BREAKING: Iran has struck a bulk carrier near Doha after it attempted to cross the Strait of Hormuz. The vessel is reportedly on fire.

BREAKING: A Reuters analysis says traders placed up to $7 billion in well-timed bets on falling oil prices ahead of major Iran-related announcements by President Donald J. Trump and Iranian officials in March and April. The trades, across crude oil, diesel, and gasoline futures on ICE and CME, reportedly occurred minutes before key updates including ceasefire moves, delayed strike decisions, and statements affecting the Strait of Hormuz, all of which triggered sharp price drops. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the U.S. Department of Justice are now investigating whether insider information may have been involved.

The Iran war has sparked higher costs and lost income in Bangladesh, a country heavily dependent on imported fuel, where energy shortages have disrupted daily life, slowed output and raised concerns about economic growth. Read more: abcnews.link/zkvET3J

BREAKING: We have obtained further information as Iran considers taking control of 7 undersea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz. Details include: 1. Under the new policy, “foreign operators” would be required to obtain permits to use these cables 2. This would include paying fees and following Iranian law 3. All management and maintenance would be handled by Iranian companies 4. The IRGC has previously warned it could target these same cables These cables are critical for data traffic between Europe, Asia, and the Gulf.

BREAKING: An Iranian projectile just struck a bulk carrier off the coast of Qatar. The vessel was set on fire by the attack. Qatar helped Iran evade sanctions for years while also helping to push Tehran’s propaganda through Al Jazeera and yet Iran still attacked them.

Why is the US accepting a stalemate in Iran? It should be forcing unconditional surrender.

Today, I will be providing and examining four timelines from four separate sources on the timeline until Iran is forced to shut-in their oil wells. Each source has very different viewpoints... but one clear timeline. We'll start with myself. I have been a very vocal counterweight to the infamous 13 day timeline. This will not come as a shock to you. However, the reality is... at least on this? I've been right. A broken clock... Per my own assessment, I have set forth the following estimate: Current Length of Blockade: 26 Days Available On Shore Storage: 5-15 Days Total Tanker Storage: 21-35 Days Additional Extension via Trucking, Un-Mothballing, Rail (Conservatively): 7 Days Total BEST CASE Estimated Timeline: 57-81 Days Now, lets examine the timeline of Miad Maleki from Foundation For Defense of Democracies, which was what he put forth to Fox News during a recent Bret Baier Special Report. It will come as no surprise that Miad and I have heavily disagreed on this exact topic, which is why I find including his updated assessment to be particularly damning: "Iran has about 13 days worth of storage onshore available, and they have around 15-18 tankers in the Persian Gulf that will take about 30-45 days to fill up." This statement was delivered to Fox News from Miad on May 4th. I have updated the timeline to reflect today, May 9th: Current Length of Blockade: 26 Days Available On Shore Storage: 10 Days Available Tanker Storage: 27-42 Days Total Timeline: 64-79 Days Again, it should be reiterated that my timeline, published on May 2nd, falls almost perfectly in line with Miad's delivered on May 4th. 57-81 days, 64-79 days. Total timeline from today: Myself: 31-55 days Miad: 38-53 days Lastly, I want to present reporting from @farnazfassihi at The New York Times, which cites two sources: Homayoun Falakshahi, Head of Oil Analysis at Kpler, and an anonymous Iranian oil official. Per reporting from Farnaz, Falakshahi assesses a timeline of 25-30 days from May 6th. Updated for today, that is a remaining timeline of 22-27 days. This is the most aggressively optimistic of the four. The unnamed Iranian oil official puts the remaining timeline at 40-45 days. Updated for today, 37-42 days. Taken together, the timelines are as follows: Kpler: 22-27 Days Remaining Brett Erickson: 31-55 Days Remaining Miad Maleki: 38-53 Days Remaining Iranian Oil Official: 37-42 Days Remaining Average between the four: 32-44 Days Remaining Total Average Projected Timeline from Blockade Imposition to Shut-In: 58-70 Days (... I did pretty good) I will add this one last, and very large caveat: Iran still has substantial options to further extend this timeline. Dumping oil, burning oil, mass-infiltrating the blockade, and other creative measures that desperate times call for as this timeline begins to lessen. With that said... Iran has twice shut-in previously in 2012 and 2019, and did so without "exploding their oil infrastructure".