Brett Erickson

One of my gravest concerns as the war continues is that we have crossed the Rubicon as it relates to the replenishment of the Russian war chest due to the boon in revenues from oil exports as a result of the "unsanctioning" of Russian oil. Russia is raking in well beyond $5B/month from increased oil revenues, and with a low likelihood of these Pakistan peace talks resulting in any meaningful ceasefire, there is great risk that we will see General Licenses 133 and 134 perpetually extended over the course of the year due to a need to temper the global energy markets. As I said in The Washington Post on Friday: "This move directly contradicts Trump’s own statements that the United States is considering winding down this conflict,” “You don’t unsanction Iranian oil if you’re winding down. This is the action of an administration that has no exit ramp and knows it. The word for that is desperation.”

@gbrew24 For the oddest reason, I just don’t believe him…

Trump has spent Easter calling reporters and insisting that a deal with Iran is imminent.

@annmarie Timeline change number… 4?

Unclear, but Trump seems to be posting about his Iran deadline.

@Amena__Bakr Anything to keep the markets down. Nobody believes him.

Timeline update #OOTT

@BarakRavid It’s become embarrassing for Trump at this point. He can’t learn from his past red line mistakes and keeps looking like a fool on the global stage as a result.

🚨🚨🚨Trump extends deadline for Iran by an additional 24 hours. In a post on Truth Social he wrote: Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time

@annmarie Absolutely nobody believes him

Axios: President Trump claimed in an interview with Axios that the U.S. is "in deep negotiations" with Iran and that a deal can be reached before his deadline expires on Tuesday. "There is a good chance, but if they don't make a deal, I am blowing up everything over there," he said.

@staunovo Absolutely nobody believes him

President Trump claimed in an interview with Axios that the U.S. is "in deep negotiations" with Iran and that a deal can be reached before his deadline expires on Tuesday. "There is a good chance, but if they don't make a deal, I am blowing up everything over there," he said.

@TalaRamadan Oh cmon nobody is buying this. Just market manipulation

April 5 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said a deal with Iran is possible by Monday, and that Iran was negotiating, Fox News reported on Sunday following an interview with the president.

Ahhh the age old diplomatic strategy of… mocking another religion… 4D chess or something…

@phildstewart Surely THIS TIME cutting the head off the snake will work!

Trump says a massive strike in Tehran killed many Iranian military leaders

@alexbward Oh good, yeah ol Petey? He’s reliable when it comes to legal questions!

- Hegseth among aides saying the targets are viable - Law-of-war experts explain the nuances of when such targets are legitimate and when they’re not

“Top aides have privately made the case to President Trump in recent days that Iran’s power-generating facilities and bridges are legitimate military targets because destroying them could cripple the country’s missile and nuclear programs, officials say.” wsj.com/world/middle-e…

@Amena__Bakr It’s not even about insurance. It’s the threat to life of the captain and crew.

Insurance is one thing, but what about the active war? When will that end ? #OOTT

@Michellewb_ I mean if it’s headed to Cuba it is still subject to sanctions underage-134A regardless of loading date

sanctioned oil products tanker Adhara (9353125) is signalling its sailing for Port Esquivel, Jamaica. It has a cargo of 118,000 barrels of fuel oil (Vortexa). difficult to tell whether it loaded at Russia's Baltic ports before March 12 (when a US sanctions waiver was announced on prior cargoes on the water) because the vessel had plenty of dark activity over that period. Vortexa has it loading on March 18 and @WindwardAI has it sailing from Russian waters on March 21. perhaps it's really going to Cuba? The AIS destination is inputted manually by the crew and it's not Adhara's first rodeo in deceptive shipping practices. watching with interest

@RKelanic It’s just so… obviously engrained in the Persian culture. Their national pride and cultural depth is what makes Iran… Iran. To think they’ll capitulate to the Great Satan is to make an elementary mistake in the understanding of the Persian people.

@BrettErickson28 🤷‍♀️ it’s a mistake we’ve made repeatedly since WWII and continually fail to learn

Early reporting suggested that U.S. strikes were burying entire Iranian missile cities, effectively rendering them inoperable. Turns out, Iran can “uncork” those sites in as little as 12 hours. 👇 haaretz.com/israel-news/is…

@AmyKosari @RKelanic The Iranian people rally around the flag when their civilian infrastructure is destroyed and the ordinary person is killed by missiles.

@BrettErickson28 @RKelanic Surrender? The Iranian people overwhelmingly support our intervention. Are you kidding?

Heavy bombardment of Tehran isn’t going to make Iran surrender. The history of strategic bombing is dead clear on this: it doesn’t work. The U.S. firebombed Dresden & Tokyo during WWII, killing tens of thousands. Neither Germany nor Japan surrendered. More recently, Moscow’s attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities also hasn’t forced Ukraine to surrender. In the age of nationalism, bombing infrastructure doesn’t break the will of the populace —it *increases* their resolve to resist. It is strategically counterproductive. When strategic bombing fails, the pressure will increase for further escalation, perhaps as boots on the ground, as the U.S. chases sunk costs. This is how wars that start little get bigger and bigger. To avoid self-entrapment in a long war, Trump needs to reject the sunk costs fallacy and change course. There is no silver bullet to victory here — indeed, no path at all to strategic victory. The best Trump can do is limit the self-inflicted damage to the U.S. military and economy by ending the war as soon as possible. @defpriorities nytimes.com/2026/04/03/wor…

@CyrusTheEcon I can disagree with the President while also objectively assessing different policies. Trump is not “all good” or “all bad”. Thinking he is will result in catastrophic critical thinking failures.

Here's some risk advice for you: Bet on the TACO. Old Orange is foolish, but consistently so.

There is a fundamental lack of understanding from the Trump administration as it relates to Persian culture. When the Miracle on Ice team beat the Soviets in Lake Placid, and the crowds are chanting “USA! USA! USA!”… that is the mentality Persians have had in their culture for centuries. The Iranians are some of the most prideful people in the world, and their patriotism rivals even that of the United States. Nothing, NOTHING, would make the United States surrender to the actions of an aggressor. We would fight to the last man without a doubt in my mind. The Iranians are the exact same. Kinetic strikes, invasion, decapitation… none of it will make any difference. The complete lack of guidance and fundamental understanding of one of the most stories cultures in world history shows gross negligence from this administrations pursuit of asinine strategic objectives. #Iran #Persia #Trump #UnitedStates #Tehran #Oil

@ianbremmer @JessicaTarlov I think this one HAS to be enforced. If he TACO’s for a third time, his legacy is over (if it isn’t already)

if you’re counting, president trump with third unilateral 48 hour ultimatum to iranian govt that refuses to negotiate or reopen strait.

As Trump (again) issues an ultimatum to Iran, I think we need to accept this that one must be carried out. Trump has TACO’d twice at least now, and a third time will make him the laughingstock of the world. With the second F-15 pilot still not being located, we are likely looking at far more kinetic operations taking place within the borders of Iran.