❤️ RE ری ٹویٹ کیا
❤️ RE
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Trailer out now: yt.openinapp.co/yn18n
She grew up five minutes from me in Jayanagar, he became the first prime minister of Indian origin of the UK. They've been together 20 years and still argue about ice cream flavours - we talked to him about how it felt to lose power, to her about how it felt to never be seen as her own person, and to them both about what the future holds. First couple's episode we've ever done!
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❤️ RE ری ٹویٹ کیا
“Work harder” is terrible advice if you want to get rich .
Professor Jiang explains why
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@jasonpizzino Ah yes
The Great Depression which didn’t follow the GFC or Covid apocalypse!
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As we hit the peak and collapse of the 18-year cycle, the perma bears are finally going to have their time to be “right” after 15+ years of being wrong.
It’s important that you (and I) don’t get trapped in the bear p0rn after it expires. The perma bears will be extremely convincing though but they’ll repeat their mistakes and miss the cycle low. It happens every cycle.
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❤️ RE ری ٹویٹ کیا
❤️ RE ری ٹویٹ کیا
❤️ RE ری ٹویٹ کیا
What happens to your body if you walk 10,000 steps daily
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❤️ RE ری ٹویٹ کیا
Part One of Three: If your brain feels like it’s breaking, it’s because you are witnessing the controlled demolition of a global reality. From the "composite monster" of the Epstein network to the sovereign confessions now emerging from the shadows of Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela, the receipts are coming in. The smoking guns aren't in WDC. They are abroad. But there won't be any arrests. Instead, there are four paths left for America: Apotheosis, Lustration, Conciliatism, or continuing the Soft Civil War. We have reached a terminal limit point in American Glasnost, explained here...
open.substack.com/pub/drpippa/p/…
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@saylor No. A store of value has to be 100% hacking resistant. It’s an existential feature. For other industries it will be important but less binary/existential.
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I've long suspected Bitcoin is a giant Ponzi scheme and now I'm hearing tales of woe that make me fear I'm right.
mol.im/a/15643681
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❤️ RE ری ٹویٹ کیا
"All of your contributions to the world are going to come from your superpower."
@ssankar on what Alex Karp taught him about finding people's superpowers:
"Really talented people are highly uneven. They're very good at some things and really bad at some other things.
Particularly for high achieving people, when they're young, they misattribute what their superpower is.
They think there's this thing they do that requires effort and therefore they get a dopamine hit when they succeed. It's probably something they're not even bad at, they're just okay at.
Superpowers are effortless. My analogy for this is Superman - he could fly, he could see through walls. It's just something he could do.
That's usually something you learn comparatively. This thing that's effortless for me other people who are really smart can't seem to do.
And embracing that is the first step.
The other part of this is kryptonite. There are some set of weaknesses you have where you aren't just average, you're six deviations below average. It's not something you can work on.
The only strategy for Superman around kryptonite was to avoid it.
You have to create an environment that supports them through that because the discovery of kryptonite usually involves you being exposed to it.
You're going to make some really bad mistake that will have real consequences. Hopefully you learn from that mistake, but you don't want to create a culture which is like "I have to fire you."
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag
My conversation with Shyam Sankar (@ssankar). Shyam has spent nearly 20 years as the most important person at Palantir that most people have never heard of. We spend a lot of time understanding his worldview, which helps explain why he has devoted his life to this work. At the center of it is a belief in the primacy of people -- all meaningful change comes from a small number of builders willing to be heretics first. You will find few people who think as deeply about the relationship between technology and national power. In many ways, he is becoming the modern version of the heretics he most admires. We discuss: - What Alex Karp taught him about identifying superpowers and unlocking talent - Heretics + the components of American greatness - The origins of the FDE model - Ontology and chips – where value will accrue in AI - Why dual-use companies are the future of American industry - China and what it would take for the US to reindustrialize - His journey from Nigeria to Orlando and what his dad taught him about gratitude Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:23 Defining Heretics in US Military History 8:36 Shyam’s Personal Disagreeableness 9:49 Formative Experiences & Worldview 12:52 What Makes America Exceptional 14:48 What Does Greatness Mean? 15:33 Alex Karp 16:46 How to Unlock Talent 19:21 Identifying Superpowers and Kryptonite 22:54 The Gamma Ray Moment 25:00 Palantir's Next 10 Years 27:03 Forward Deployed Engineering 33:40 Explaining What Palantir Is 37:50 Military vs. Commercial Customers 39:00 The State of the US Military Today 47:01 How to Re-Industrialize America 51:06 Perspective on China as an Adversary 56:17 How to Get More Heretics in Government 1:03:53 Managing Rapid Pivots & Momentum 1:08:48 Where Will AI Value Accrue? 1:13:33 Reasserting the Legitimacy of Institutions 1:15:54 To Do or To Be? 1:16:31 Reflecting on Fatherhood 1:17:34 Kindest Thing
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❤️ RE ری ٹویٹ کیا
Your model has 98% accuracy.
It's also worthless.
That's the lesson buried in this Stanford lecture on Gaussian Discriminant Analysis.
When classes are imbalanced - 98% healthy, 2% sick a model that always predicts "healthy" scores 98% and catches zero cases that matter.
This is the null rate problem, and it's the most common mistake in applied ML.
Just stop trusting default thresholds. Manually adjust them. Plot the ROC curve. Read the AUC.
This lecture builds that intuition from scratch starting with multivariate LDA, Fisher's Iris data, and confusion matrices.
Now apply this to markets. On Polymarket, some of conditions were mispriced, but detecting which ones required exactly this kind of classification thinking.
Checkout both the lecture and the article and find out, how you will execute it further
gemchanger@gemchange_ltd
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You're welcome! My goal is clear explanations, not complexity for its own sake. Sidestepping a bear market means trimming exposure now (when ACWI looks stretched) and redeploying after the overshoot lower—turning a potential 20-25% drawdown into fuel for faster compounding. What's the missing piece in your heuristic?
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The buy-and-hold crowd will tell you how their favourite holding period is forever (misrepresentation of Buffett's quote).
Here is a mathematical fact: sidestepping just one bear market could increase your compounding by a decade or two.
Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan
Using a simple and imperfect heuristic, we view the global stock market as VERY unattractive right now. One of the 5 most common errors investors commit is the neglect of mean reversion in financial markets. The global stock market $ACWI could fall by 20-25% to revert to fair value. But history tells us that markets rarely just revert to the mean; instead, they overshoot and then undershoot.
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❤️ RE ری ٹویٹ کیا
❤️ RE ری ٹویٹ کیا
❤️ RE ری ٹویٹ کیا
This is a “must listen to” because it is a spirited defence of the social contract against the argument that it is worth moving more power into the hands of the authorities in the interest of efficiency even though it sacrifices the rights of citizens and tears apart the social contract.
Joanna Hardy-Susskind@Joanna__Hardy
This from @Geoffrey_Cox was titanic - a truly beautiful speech. He outshone those sat opposite. They could only watch. And nervously laugh. This should be seen by every new MP to understand what they do, & every new barrister to understand what we do.
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@predict_addict Thank for the content Sir
As a father of a 11 year old boy who is above average for maths in the UK
Is this the only book you recommend?
Are there any other important books or resources you would advise to give him the best chance of success excelling in this subject
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Before calculators, before YouTube tutorials, before “learning apps”, students learned arithmetic from books like this.
The classic arithmetic textbook by Aleksandr Kiselev trained generations of mathematicians in Russia and the USSR.
The philosophy was simple:
Explain every rule.
Prove what can be proven.
Train logical thinking early.
The result was one of the strongest mathematical traditions in the world.
Start with arithmetic.
valeman.gumroad.com/l/arithmetic
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