Sebastian

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Sebastian

Sebastian

@SalsaInvest

Powerful insights on $LMND

Canada شامل ہوئے Şubat 2021
44 فالونگ390 فالوورز
Sebastian ری ٹویٹ کیا
Sebastian
Sebastian@SalsaInvest·
Look, I’m going to make it simple for you: $LMND shares outstanding: 76,786,720 $LMND # of customers: 3,142,581 🍋 You get 1 customer for every 24.4 shares that you buy. At the current share price of ~$53, it means you get 1 customer for every $1293 you invest. FOREVER. Think about all the profits you make for your insurance companies over the course of your life... You got it, a lot more than $1293!!! Better yet, that 1 customer may turn to 1.7 customers magically in 5 years, and continue to multiply thereafter, WITHOUT YOU HAVING TO DO ANYTHING. Indeed, $LMND 's customer count is increasing faster than its outstanding # of shares, so you have a free accretion of customers over time. Look at the chart. What you see is your passive accretion of customers over time. The trend suggests that you would have ~7 customers/100 shares in 5 years from now, that is a net accretion of ~72%. Of course, the value of your customers will go way up as well over time as they mature and get a 🚗, a 🏡, a🐶, etc. THE TAKEAWAY: Thinking in terms of owned customers help you think long term. Track the # of customers that you own instead of your position size in $, because it concretely represents the future value of what you own. 🍋🍋🍋
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Sebastian
Sebastian@SalsaInvest·
Reply with your price target below 👇 I’m reading every comment! Who’s feeling the lemon squeeze?🍋 Drop it 🔥 (this is not financial advice, DYOR)
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Sebastian
Sebastian@SalsaInvest·
8/ Quick Poll 🍋🍋 RT if you want more people waking up to $LMND
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Sebastian
Sebastian@SalsaInvest·
🍋 MEGA THREAD: Here’s my full refined BULL CASE valuation model with historical proof baked in for $LMND . Let’s go! 🚀 1/ LMND isn’t “still pre-profit.” It’s a high-octane AI insurance machine that has been compounding silently while the street was distracted. Buckle up! 👇
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Sebastian
Sebastian@SalsaInvest·
Why do legacy insurers survive for 100+ years while standard companies fade? Because insurance isn't a product—it's a risk-pooling network. Products deplete or saturate, but networks get stronger as they grow. This is why cities are eternal, and why $LMND is built to last. 📦 Products vs. 🌐 Networks Most companies sell a standard product or software. When you sell a product, you hit a natural ceiling: markets saturate, competition commoditizes your offering, and you have to constantly invent something new to survive. They are structurally temporary. Networks are completely different. A network is an ecosystem where every single new entrant inherently increases the value, utility, and stability of the system for everyone else. This is why networks—like global cities (e.g. Rome), the internet, and languages—are often eternal. And they compound in value the larger they get. 🛡️ Insurance is the Oldest Human Network An insurance company doesn't sell a physical item from a warehouse. It is a central node managing a decentralized network of human risk-pooling. When you buy a policy, your premium directly deepens the collective capital pool. The larger the network grows, the more resilient it becomes against localized shocks and catastrophes. This network structure is the exact reason legacy carriers survive for centuries while ordinary corporations vanish from the S&P 500 every 15 years. ⚙️ The Analog Bottleneck However, traditional insurance companies are analog networks. They are choked by human broker distribution, manual paperwork, and fragmented IT databases. To scale their network, they must linearly scale their headcount and expenses. 🚀 The AI-Native Network: The $LMND Flywheel Lemonade’s core thesis is to take the permanent durability of an insurance network, and strip out the analog friction by running it on an AI-native digital operating system. Now that Lemonade has achieved scale, the operational leverage of this digital network is aggressively expanding: • Decoupled Headcount: Because LLMs and automated bots run the backend, top-line growth is entirely disconnected from hiring. Since Q4 2022, Lemonade has more than doubled its In-Force Premium (IFP) while actually reducing its employee headcount by 6%. Look at the chart, it instantly proves that Lemonade's growth is decoupled from human hiring. • Peak Efficiency: $LMND now generates over $1 million in IFP per employee, hitting efficiency parity with multi-billion dollar incumbents while operating at a fraction of their size. • Automated Claims Network: Their cost of handling claims (the LAE ratio) has plummeted to an industry-leading 7% as AI handles a near-tripling of claims volume without adding human adjusters. • Real-Time Data Sensors: With products like Lemonade Car, every user acts as a real-time data node. Telematics data feeds directly into their central AI models, making risk selection and pricing incrementally more accurate for the entire network with every mile driven. 📉 The Takeaway Wall Street values $LMND like an ephemeral software company. In reality, it is a digital risk network built on the same network effect that makes internet, languages & global cities eternal. Legacy insurers proved the eternal durability of the risk network. Lemonade is simply the first to perfect its digital execution. 🍋🍋🍋
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Doug Johnson
Doug Johnson@dougjohnson1982·
@SalsaInvest @shai_wininger @Lemonade_Inc This data is available on their website. As of 11 June, 2026: Alabama, Alaska, Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nebraska, and Vermont. 11 states remaining for renter's insurance.
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Shai Wininger
Shai Wininger@shai_wininger·
Heads up, earthlings and plasmoids: @Lemonade_Inc Renters is now live in Montana.
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Sebastian
Sebastian@SalsaInvest·
@PaperBagInvest Thank you Paperbag. Yes, exactly! It's the difference between an inefficient network and an efficient one.
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Paper Bag Investor
Paper Bag Investor@PaperBagInvest·
Well said and so important to understand. I like the city analogy too, and to take it further, it’s like legacy insurers are cities with very poor infrastructure design - roads are inefficient and inconsistent vs lemonade where everything moves instantaneously and is perfectly organized and adjustable over time.
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Amit Anand
Amit Anand@mranand_amit·
@SalsaInvest Very eloquently explained and again a very unique take on what $LMND is doing and what happens when AI native startups enter the old boring traditional verticals.
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