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Captain Ⓐncapistan@CptAncapistan·9h

My wife is adamant that we should pick blue 💀

Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?

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Jacob@Str_Eng_Jake·4h

@Devon_Eriksen_ Not the same in the real world, but it is the same in some imaginary world that doesn't matter.

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Devon Eriksen@Devon_Eriksen_·5h

You are offered a pill. Anyone who takes the pill, dies, unless over 50% of humanity takes the pill. Obviously, you cannot be affected by the pill if you don't take it. Is the same moral scenario as the red and blue buttons?

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Jacob@Str_Eng_Jake·5h

@MichaelFKane

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Michael F Kane@MichaelFKane·6h

I hate to quote tweet this again, but anyone lecturing about game theory and other nonsense while pushing red is not thinking at all. Contrary to what Avengers Endgame shows, a substantial part of the population dying at once leads to rapid civilizational collapse as we lose specialists and key parts of supply chains and logistics. The pieces of a complex society no longer work. Mass dieoffs follow as food doesn't hit markets and power grids languish. Don't assume you're the one that lives. Most of you reading this have no idea what you'd do in that situation. Most every 'game theorist' betting on red in their cynicism die in 6 months. Good job, guys! 🙄

Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?

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Jacob@Str_Eng_Jake·5h

@BillyM2k I would say Canada, but I'm not sure they qualify as 1st world anymore.

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Shibetoshi Nakamoto@BillyM2k·9h

what’s the worst first world country?

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Jacob@Str_Eng_Jake·5h

@BillyM2k The UK

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Jacob@Str_Eng_Jake·6h

@DrunkKobold This is the game theory. Blue wins easy in the real world. Any other option requires a misunderstanding of the real world or a hatred for society in general.

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Dr. Drunken Kobold, Esq.@DrunkKobold·11h

Game theory is not being used to determine which choice is popular, but which choice is winning. The red button runs 0 risk of anything bad happening to you, and 0 risk to anyone else unless they willingly inflict risk upon themselves for no gain. Everyone who pressed red won

Peter Hague@peterrhague

Amazing how lots of self appointed game theory experts confidently asserting that blue is the stupid choice. But every time this poll is run blue wins. Not only is the “game theory” answer predicting the wrong outcome, its explanatory power is based on it being able to predict the right answer. So it’s doubly wrong.

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Jacob@Str_Eng_Jake·6h

@raviollius @EigenGender I'm on the right, you're a dumbass.

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Raviollius@raviollius·10h

@Str_Eng_Jake @EigenGender I can tell you're a leftist by how many words you hard to throw into this picture to frame the answer

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EigenGender 🔸@EigenGender·11h

the correct choice in this scenario is obviously whatever the majority is and so it’s an empirical question described as a game theory question

Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?

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Jacob@Str_Eng_Jake·6h

@panickssery @EigenGender Because they recognize how these votes work in the real world and my chart ia accurate.

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Arjun Panickssery@panickssery·10h

@Str_Eng_Jake @EigenGender Why did your family vote blue

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Jacob@Str_Eng_Jake·6h

@Three_of_Threes @plasmarob Poll your entire family without priming them and report back.

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✟ Three of Threes ✟@Three_of_Threes·6h

@Str_Eng_Jake @plasmarob Most of my family isn't dumb enough to walk into the giant blender hoping 50% of the world is stupid enough to do the same. You just don't need to walk into the blender.

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plasma ۞@plasmarob·16h

I would risk my life and die for people who are bad at expected value problems.

Diane Yap@RealDianeYap

“Would you risk your life for people who are bad at expected value problems?” The answer is straightforward. Either you care about the outcome or you care about looking like a heckin’ good person.

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Jacob@Str_Eng_Jake·9h

@shaggysurvives This post requires a combination of altruism and strength that few posess.

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shaggy@shaggysurvives·10h

i want there to be a third button that kills the people who pressed the red button

Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?

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Jacob@Str_Eng_Jake·9h

@ParkDerekS 40 to 60% of people vote blue in the real world. You can't vote for your family. And it's not coordinated.

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Jacob@Str_Eng_Jake·9h

@ParkDerekS Your chart is shit.

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Derek Park@ParkDerekS·16h

Q: But I want to pick blue so everyone can live. Nice answer: IF EVERYONE PICKS ACCORDING TO THEIR BEST INTEREST, EVERYONE LIVES. Mean answer: If everyone picks according to their best interest, only the people who are too dumb to realize what their best interests are, will die.

Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?

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Jacob@Str_Eng_Jake·9h

@rightwingnutrs

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Old Tory Right - Scholastic Fundamentalist@rightwingnutrs·13h

This isn’t the prisoner’s dilemma. The key feature of the prisoner’s dilemma is that both parties are better off if they cooperate and palpably worse off if they both defect. The strategy here is obvious: Press the red button because you guarantee your own survival and every non-suicidal person would do the same. The prisoner’s dilemma can’t be “solved” in this way. It requires a complex social system to enforce norms among the criminals to not defect and punish those who do. The mob already figured this out: Kill people who defect.

Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?

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Jacob@Str_Eng_Jake·9h

@Senbon_Z @WomanDefiner It's a private vote, no virtue signals here.

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𝑮𝒓𝒊𝒎 𝑺𝒉𝒂𝒅𝒐𝒘 ΘΔ@R34GrimShadow

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Bishop of Based Fulton Sheen 🇻🇦@Senbon_Z·12h

@WomanDefiner The only people in the world pressing blue are the virtue signalers. Literally everyone else is pressing red. This is how you get absurd amounts of foreigners on government assistance, and Indians flooding companies with their own

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Paul@WomanDefiner·13h

This is where you're wrong, I don't like people dying. Anyone who has followed me long enough knows I lobby for the least violent effective path as a solution first. That being said, I'm not putting my life on the line for strangers who make bad decisions. I have real people who depend on me.

And that's what separates blue from red. Red is fine with people dying, meaning they lack moral intelligence and basic human decency whereas blue is not okay with people dying, but are willing to risk their own lives so others might live. Its a problem of selfishness vs human decency.

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Jacob@Str_Eng_Jake·9h

@WomanDefiner Why are you assuming you play the game with only strangers? Your family is playing and you can't vote for them. They may make a mistake or error even if you coordinate. If you don't coordinate (likely rule) then at least around 40% of your family would be gone if red won.

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Jacob@Str_Eng_Jake·9h

@mean_field_zane AI only considers good/bad based off if you live or die. It does not take into account how much value you give to your family living or dying. AI also fails to research real world expectations for votes to accurately weigh to probability of nearly 50% of everyone disappearing.

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𝔐𝔽𝓩@mean_field_zane·11h

Checking a Bayesian Nash equilibrium with some agents being altruistic, it depends on the probabilities and relative weights of survival and altruism. A blue equilibrium can exist, but a red always exists. Under maximin or extreme ambiguity aversion, the robust equilibrium is red. So what’s going on? What makes blue the poll outcome? I’m going to continue to investigate.

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𝔐𝔽𝓩@mean_field_zane·11h

I actually did the game theory math on this. Unfortunately, in the standard game with no communication/cooperation, asymmetric information, and self-interested agents, red weakly dominates. Red is equilibrium. I’m gonna now go look at what modifications of the game change this.

Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?

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Jacob@Str_Eng_Jake·9h

@mean_field_zane Game theory, blue vote wins 2x. Its more likely to save your whole family, and you can avoid the nightmare scenario where you voted half your family dead.

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Jacob@Str_Eng_Jake·9h

You are adding "do this dangerous and dumb thing" before pressing the button. Why don't you juat say "stand over a pit of spikes assuring a painful death before pressing the blue button". No shit you'd change the voting dynamics. Nobody is going to naturally stand over a pit of spikes, nobody is naturally going to put a gun to their head. It changes the real world dynamics in a way that changes the though experiment to red. The real world stats on this is 40-60% vote blue (because you don't have to put a gun to your head vefore voting blue).

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E. Darwin Hartshorn ⳩@LogoSimian·12h

Pointing a gun at your head and saying "if everyone does this, we don't have to pull the trigger" is both tremendously evil and tremendously stupid. The fact that 51% of people decided to go along with it doesn't actually change this. But to be fair, if game theory is about predicting what will happen rather than what should happen, and game theory was wrong, then this is objectively a game theory L.

Peter Hague@peterrhague

Amazing how lots of self appointed game theory experts confidently asserting that blue is the stupid choice. But every time this poll is run blue wins. Not only is the “game theory” answer predicting the wrong outcome, its explanatory power is based on it being able to predict the right answer. So it’s doubly wrong.

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Jacob@Str_Eng_Jake·9h

Why are you bringing in a different thought experiment? Yours does not involve half the planet dying and is your family in this room? Do you think any of your family members would succumb to the man threatening them? If they did, you can't tell them to put the gun down. That would violate the "private vote". You just completely changed the thought experiment.

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@Str_Eng_Jake x.com/slumrna_dog/st…

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Slumdog_Chillionaire@SlumRNA_Dog·9h

Slumdog_Chillionaire@SlumRNA_Dog

*Man holding gun to his head* “If 51% of the people in this room don’t hold a gun to their head the guns all go off and we die.” “What if we just didn’t hold a gun to our head?” “Wow you’re literally only concerned about yourself. Unbelievable.”

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