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595 posts


@TooDiffercult @CrimeWatchMpls He was running it from his house?
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Only on Crime Watch, birdcage liner's latest fallen hero, "soccer dad" anti-ICE protester Chris Ostroushko, who assaulted Savanah Hernandez out at Whipple over the weekend, was convicted of defrauding the state unemployment program of nearly $7000 in the early 00s. He received a stay-of-execution on the sentence.


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@PeterSchiff What right does Iran have to close down the SOH outside it's waters?
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@IranIntl_En I thought they won the war, why would they feel their lives were in danger?
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A member of Iran’s delegation to talks with the US in Pakistan said the team felt seriously threatened while returning to Tehran, claiming their plane diverted to Mashhad before members traveled onward by train, car and bus.
Regular commentator and former adviser to Iranian negotiators Mohammad Marandi told Al Mayadeen US Vice President JD Vance ended the talks "abruptly," just as the Washington Post published an opinion piece. The timing, he said, alarmed Iran's delegation that they could be targeted upon return.
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@TheInsiderPaper Iran could be one of the richest nations in the world, have real global influence, but the IRGC chases a 2000 year old fairy tale.
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@eg2nt6 @DMichaelTripi Because it isn't as simple as just wanting one. Lots of technical hurdles beyond enrichment.
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@DMichaelTripi I have no idea why Iran does not build nukes. Russia has them, China has them, fucking Paks has them. Whats the stigma about it?
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@2Millsy @CrimeWatchMpls Had, City got 100+ complaints about running a commercial breading business in a residential area.
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@CrimeWatchMpls Also, the guy has $600,000 plus home from, selling lizards? Sure he bought the home for just under $400k but wow
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@phildstewart Much easier to just target the port infrastructure for oil loading and container unloading.
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A blockade is an act of war that requires an open-ended commitment of a significant number of warships and will test the already fragile ceasefire with Iran, experts say.
Retired Admiral Gary Roughead, a former chief of U.S. naval operations, said Iran could fire on ships in the Gulf or attack infrastructure of the Gulf states that host U.S. forces: "I honestly believe that if we begin to do it, that Iran will have some kind of a reaction"
reuters.com/world/asia-pac…
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@IRANinBULGARIA Seems like cranes and other heavy civil construction equipment should be next up on the targeting list.
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All six railway sites hit by U.S.–Zionist attacks have been restored.
Iranian engineers rebuilt the bridges in under 96 hours, and train services have fully resumed.
#Iran #Infrastructure #Reconstruction
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BREAKING: In a direct message to the Trump administration and the US Navy, China's Defense Minister Admiral Dong Jun says Chinese ships will continue transiting the Strait of Hormuz through agreements with Iran, and warns the US not to "meddle in our affairs."
Also from Dong's statement:
1. Says Chinese ships are currently "moving in and out of the waters of the Strait of Hormuz"
2. Confirms China has existing "trade and energy agreements with Iran" that China will "respect and honor"
3. Explicitly states: "Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and it is open for us," recognizing Iranian sovereignty over transit
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@_10delta_ Maybe I am too much of a capitalist. Iran could literally be one of the richest nations in the world.
They choose fairy tales from 2,000 years ago over their people today. Insanity.
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The IRGC's decision tree has collapsed to 2 branches:
1. Accept the US terms (which means some version of: nuclear concessions, free passage through Hormuz, & constraints on proxy operations) & preserve the economic infrastructure that sustains the regime's power base.
2. Reject the terms & face a naval blockade that severs the China trade corridor, grinds the domestic economy to a halt, & creates the internal conditions for regime collapse.
The first option might be humiliating, but the second is existential for the current regime.
Right now the IRGC is being forced to find a way to repackage capitulation as strategic wisdom, declare victory on state television, & keep their construction companies/money-machines running.
Otherwise they risk internal revolts & potential In-fighting within the IRGC coalition (personally think that the likelihood of regime change is being underpriced by the market).
With regards to the Hormuz outcome specifically..
It is almost predetermined at this point because the US has already begun establishing physical control of the waterway.
The mine-clearing operations & destroyer transits aren't contingent on a deal.. they're happening regardless.
Iran's stated position of sovereignty over the Strait & IRGC-coordinated transit with a per-vessel fee was always a negotiating position & not a defensible end state.
What the final deal will likely produce is what I've described as *implicit* rather than *explicit* US control.
The language will be something like "free & unimpeded passage consistent with international maritime law" with an international monitoring mechanism that includes Iranian participation in some consultative capacity.
Iran gets to save face by having a seat at the table.
The US gets what it actually wants, which is that no vessel needs Iranian permission to transit (& tacitly corroborating its dominion over the energy lifeline of the world).
The hegemon doesn't formally annex the chokepoint, but rather establishes a legal framework of "free passage" that is guaranteed by its own military power.
In other words, control without the political liability of ownership.
Recall, the British didn't formally own the Suez Canal for most of its operational history, but they guaranteed "free passage", with a fleet parked at both ends..
The US is doing the same thing with Hormuz & the deal that emerges from this process will formalize that arrangement under language both sides can live with.
The practical effect is that Hormuz becomes a US-guaranteed (read: controlled/owned) corridor, backstopped by permanent naval presence in the Gulf, with Iran's theoretical sovereignty over its territorial waters preserved in diplomatic language, but voided in operational fact.
The IRGC will accept because the alternative (losing their [Chinese] economic lifeline, which they've clearly shown is their Achilles heel.. it's what brought them to the table after all..) threatens the material foundation of their power more than any military strike could.
The terms will be dressed up as a mutual agreement.
Trump will call it the greatest deal ever made.
Iranian state media will frame it as a victory for diplomacy & sovereignty.
American destroyers will continue transiting the Strait (of America) whenever they please..
Step 7
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@javedhassan ΔO_BSOH>0 ⇒ f(f(O))>f(O) < GBU-31
Which he is about to meet.
Iran could be one of the wealthiest nations in the world, but their leaders choose to chase fairy tales from old books and let the populist live in squalor.
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ΔO_BSOH>0 ⇒ f(f(O))>f(O) is worth understanding.
Ghalibaf is mathematically making the point that the oil prices will be much worse as a result of BSOH = Blockade Strait of Hormuz. There the first order effect f(O), and possibly a significant second order effect, f(f(O)).
In simple language the mathematical equation is saying, Trump if you worsen Hormuz disruption (positive delta), then the resulting gas prices will be much higher than even the first round of increases — you’ll miss the current ‘high’ prices.
Ghalibaf qualified as an engineer!
محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf@mb_ghalibaf
Enjoy the current pump figures. With the so-called 'blockade', Soon you'll be nostalgic for $4–$5 gas. ΔO_BSOH>0 ⇒ f(f(O))>f(O)
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I could be wrong, but it's becoming increasingly clear that someone outside Iran is running this account's content. In this post:
It appears someone physically located outside Iran took this screenshot.
Google Maps is set to English, not Farsi. The device is configured for an English-speaking environment.
The White House is tagged "Recently viewed," a personalized indicator from a signed-in Google account on an iPhone. Google services require a functioning connection to Google's servers, which are blocked for ordinary Iranians both by the regime's own internet shutdown and by Google's sanctions compliance.
محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf@mb_ghalibaf
Enjoy the current pump figures. With the so-called 'blockade', Soon you'll be nostalgic for $4–$5 gas. ΔO_BSOH>0 ⇒ f(f(O))>f(O)
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Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has mocked the US plan to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, warning Americans they may soon long for today’s fuel prices.
iranintl.com/en/202604127879

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@mb_ghalibaf Btw his fake math was trying to say
“pressure compounds pressure”
As in The change in O (Oil) , under BSOH (blocking strait of Hormuz) you make oil positive
In reality, he’s probably going to run to the negotiating table
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@TheIranWatcher 10 JDAMs on each of the loading stations would be a lot cheaper.
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🚨 After failed negotiations, Donald Trump has decided to pursue a naval blockade.
Kharg Island handles about 90% of Iran’s oil exports, making it the regime’s economic lifeline.
But you do not need to occupy it to shut it down. Here is why a blockade is smarter than invading Kharg:
⚪️ Same pressure, no ground war
A blockade stops tankers and cuts off Iran’s main revenue stream without sending U.S. troops into a heavily fortified and defended island.
⚪️ No American casualties
An invasion would require an amphibious assault into missiles, drones, naval mines, and IRGC forces, while a blockade operates safely from a distance.
⚪️ Immediate leverage, fully reversible
Pressure can be turned on or off depending on negotiations, whereas an occupation would lock the U.S. into a prolonged and costly military commitment.
⚪️ Hits the regime’s economic lifeline directly
Oil exports fund the entire system, and shutting them down creates immediate financial pressure on Tehran.
⚪️ Avoids a major global oil shock
Destroying or seizing Kharg risks spiking oil prices worldwide, while a targeted blockade limits disruption mainly to Iran.
⚪️ Keeps escalation controlled and predictable
An invasion invites retaliation across the Gulf and risks a wider war, while a blockade applies pressure without losing strategic control.
Maximum pressure with minimal military risk.

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