TrekExp

@conkers3 @ShareScope It’s Thursday night so guess you’ll be recording the next podcast. It’s been a very quiet couple of weeks, not much happening in the markets, so good luck finding a topic to discuss. :) all the best chaps. Been hiding all day.

My LT #investing portfolio hit a new record ATH✅ 🏋️My No.1 o/w #AZN w/ #dividends & buying on dips is a 29 bagger✅ ✅2 x 30 baggers ✅#ECOR #AAL TR🆙+185% +112% from 2025 lows ✅#VALT🆙+147% ✅#JUP 1yr🆙+139% inc dividends ✅65 takeover exits in 12 yrs open.spotify.com/show/2G8k3SUL7…

@reb40 Boe says 3 more rate hikes this year. Inflation going up. Oh well at least Rachael reeves ‘plan is working’ :).

If anyone wants me today I’ll be behind the sofa 🛋️🫣

@KTHopkins Not the only ones

@reb40 No

Is it safe to come out yet? 🛋️ 🍪 🪖

@conkers3 @CharlieHuggins_ Another great episode. Charlie Huggins explained very clearly why AI is not a threat to business models such as Experian and RELX – and why market sentiment may be missing the structural strengths in their data, workflows and customer integration. A really thoughtful discussion

🔥#TWINPETESINVESTING #Podcast 173: Winning investing strategies with special guest, former fund manager @CharlieHuggins_ 🌟#DPLM #PHP #EXPN #REL #REITS #BONDS #Ai $NVDA $APPL, DCF model #Dividends & more conkers3.com/twin-petes-inv… youtu.be/-Qd9rffWNW4?si… open.spotify.com/episode/1P0HNC…

@conkers3 I love the is show. Keep up the good work chaps. Always insightful and grounded. Long may it continue.

THE INVESTING WEEK AHEAD😊Some #investing #trading #stocks to look out for: $WMT #BA. $RIO #GLEN #AAL $RIG $KGC $DE #CNA $MDT $ETOR $AG $NEM #CRE $EQX #ANTO #IHG $PAAS #MNDI $HL $PANW $ADI $ET #SGRO #PAF $AU $MCO $CDE #TBCG #CEPS #CCEP #NEO #TRT #SPR x.com/conkers3/statu…

@reb40 Not looking forwards to the megp share price today.

#MEGP Montefiore have been persistent sellers of ME Group shares as shown by the share price chart⬇️ Post market close were told “BERENBERG - MONTEFIORE TO SELL 12.5 MILLION SHARES IN ME GROUP INTERNATIONAL” This would clear a persistent seller which would be good news I hold👀

@AlanJLSmith Because she and kier have never had what it takes to start their own business never mind the skills to run one, and understand the heartache when things aren’t going well.

Some facts: - There are 5.7 million small businesses in the UK. - SMEs account for 99.9% of the business population. - Total employment in SMEs is 16.7 million (61% of the total). - Annual turnover from SMEs is estimated at £2.8 trillion. - 60% of new businesses don’t survive beyond 5 years, often resulting in the founders losing their life savings. - Small/medium businesses are the heart and soul of the British economy. Starting and growing a business takes guts, resilience, and ambition – and needs to be supported for the economy to thrive. Global corporations employ armies of accountants to minimise or eliminate their taxes. Small businesses and startups don’t have the luxury or budget for that; frankly, most don’t want to. They’re happy to pay their fair share – but draw the line when they believe they’re being taken advantage of. A vibrant, flourishing economy that's supportive of business will generate far more tax revenue than one that crushes the British entrepreneurial spirit. Why can’t she understand this?

@Ben__Rickert I’m learning, but it’s unsettling is how much of this makes sense. Liquidity feels strong, but so much of it is just plumbing, not real savings. Long-end volatility, deficits, QT, and rising real yields… it’s all pointing to a market that’s held up by policy, not fundamentals.

Liquidity Mirage: The Bull Market Built on Central Bank Smoke The market is celebrating again. Yields ease, equities levitate, credit spreads compress, and everyone clings to the comforting narrative: “Liquidity is back. The worst is behind us.” But liquidity today is not liquidity in the Austrian sense. It’s not accumulated capital from real savings. It’s not the surplus of deferred consumption that builds genuine economic strength. It’s manufactured liquidity—a mirage created by central banks, conjured as easily as a magician’s smoke and like all illusions, it works until it doesn’t. What follows is an uncomfortable conclusion: This bull market is built not on productivity, not on earnings, not on savings—but on policy vapor. I. The Mirage: “Liquidity” Without Savings From the Austrian lens, liquidity is a function of real savings, not credit expansion. But modern macro has replaced capital with keystrokes. When policymakers “add liquidity,” they’re not injecting savings—they’re distorting the price of money, weakening the very signal that guides rational investment. In the last cycle, this distortion reached its terminal phase: - Repo facilities ballooned. - Reverse repos drained. - T-bill issuance exploded. - Discount windows opened quietly at record scale. - Global central banks rolled out balance-sheet gymnastics no textbook ever imagined. The market saw “liquidity returning.” Austrians saw malinvestment being extended—yet again. II. The Market’s High Is Synthetic Look closely at what has been driving this bull market rebound: 1. Reserves shifting between accounts Not new capital. Just a shell game between the Fed, money markets, and Treasury’s cash account. 2. Massive Treasury issuance absorbed by leveraged buyers Broker-dealers, hedge funds, and CTAs are front-running rate pivots with leverage the Fed pretends not to see. 3. Renewed speculation in AI and long-duration tech Not because these companies suddenly became more profitable— but because the discount rate fantasy returned. 4. Credit is expanding again, but not from genuine savings It’s expanding from the belief that policymakers will always provide a backstop. This is artificial liquidity—cheap credit conjured by policy, not the product of thrift or productivity. Austrians call this “forced saving”—saving imposed via monetary inflation rather than created voluntarily. You’re not wealthier; the unit is weaker. III. Malinvestment: The Cycle Is Repeating Every time policymakers create easy money, the same pattern repeats: - Interest rates fall below their natural level. - Businesses misread this as an abundance of real savings. - Investment surges into ventures that would never be viable under honest rates. - Asset prices inflate. Eventually, reality reasserts itself. Today’s malinvestments are obvious to anyone who has read Mises or Rothbard: AI companies trading at valuations not seen since Dot-Com. Zombie firms refinancing via private credit instead of bankruptcy courts. Sovereigns issuing debt at a pace that implies rates will never rise again.Consumers borrowing at double-digit interest rates to maintain lifestyle inflation. This is not a boom. It’s a policy-engineered mispricing of risk. IV. The Austrian Warning: Liquidity Illusions End Violently Mises warned that artificial credit expansions end in one of two ways: 1. The Crack-Up Boom - The currency falls, asset prices explode, and people flee money itself. 2. The Voluntary Crisis - Policymakers stop the expansion, rates normalize, and zombie assets die. Today, no central bank has the political will to choose Door #2. The debt loads are too large. The interest expense is too high. The voter base is addicted to stimulus. So the liquidity mirage gets extended—and the bubble gets bigger but make no mistake: this is the last mile of the credit cycle. V. The Fog Clears: What Happens When Real Liquidity Matters Again Eventually, markets remember that: ~ Savings can’t be printed. ~ Capital can’t be faked. ~ Scarcity can’t be suspended. ~ Time preference always wins. When the illusion breaks, three things reprice violently: 1. Long-duration equities - When real rates rise, fair value collapses. 2. Sovereign bonds - You can suppress term premiums… until you can’t. 3. Real assets - Gold, silver, energy, and commodities rise because they cannot be diluted. And here’s the quiet truth the market avoids: The only assets that survive the end of a monetary mirage are the ones that don’t depend on the mirage. VI. The Bull Market Built on Smoke You’re watching a market that believes liquidity is a policy lever but markets built on central-bank engineering are fragile by design. Here’s the Austrian conclusion: - True liquidity is savings. - True capital is production. - True growth is deferred consumption. Everything else is smoke. This bull market is real only in the sense that all bubbles are real—right up until they aren’t. Final Thoughts. When liquidity is honest, markets allocate capital efficiently. When liquidity is fabricated, markets misallocate, inflate, and eventually unwind in disorder. We are closer to that unwind than anyone wants to admit. Watch the long end. Watch real yields. Watch gold. They’re already signaling that the mirage is fading. Ben. For more Austrian related market insights please subscribe to my Substack: @theaustriananalyst" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@theaustrianan…

@reb40 And premium bonds.

It’s November 1st so: “A pinch 🤏 and a punch 🤛 for the first of the month” *high returns would be nice but not necessarily guaranteed 🙄

@reb40 It’s 1st Nov. Start of Christmas according to Asda.

@JohnRosier @CompoundIncome @tradermark72 @ShareScope Me neither. Hopefully not a cyber issue. More likely a Microsoft billing issue.

@CompoundIncome @tradermark72 @ShareScope @sharescope Still not working for me

@ShareScope service outage 7am Monday, or is it just me?

@wheeliedealer Good to see portfolio progress. Has been a good week.

PORTFOLIO up 0.25% today and pleasingly up 0.9% for the week. :-)

@wheeliedealer Can’t make my mind up on telecom plus. Seems to be moving sideways at the moment. Heard it’s to do with uncertainty around the effect of ai on business like this.

PORTFOLIO down 0.3% on the day; not too rough. Unfortunately though it was a soggy week; down 0.9% :-)

@reb40 Spoons

You get one guess as to where I am today 🙃🇮🇪

Man on left, arrested by 30 cops, sprayed at point black range for, what was it again? Having breakfast? Man on right, found inside vulnerable elderly woman's home with no reason to be in there, not arrested. Britain, something ain't right. #TommyRobinson #UTK #13thSept #britaniahotel

@HTVIOLA @conkers3 @_investorsummit Best of look Henry. You will smash it. You look very dapper too!

The day has finally arrived! Super excited to be on stage today with @conkers3 at the inaugural @_investorsummit. See you there!!!

@reb40 Shoe were one of my biggest mistakes. I sold my rr. To buy them then watch rr go stratospheric whilst shoe hit the ground. Hey hey.

#SHOE ouch 😩, a nasty Profit Warning ⚠️ from Shoe Zone Profit pre tax expectations halved from £5m to £2.5m And they’re withdrawing their dividend policy which won’t please income investors Cites weaker consumer confidence & once more the impact of the government’s budget…🙄

@QprEver Yes

🇬🇧 Do you agree that Keir Starmer is the worst Prime Minister in British political history 🇬🇧

@conkers3 @MathewGregory5 @jeffprestridge @MartinGilbert83 @marxnd @Frencheconomics @SKellyCEO @John_Stepek @EMR_Recruitment @samhagger @annabelbrodies @HTVIOLA @_samdb @jimgannonuk @Mike24775926 @MY21_Oracle @Jubiloo @karenwi17092279 @sanjkareer @JamesThorneley @Jarvy55 @RogerGreen2009 @Kirsty_Doyle_ @TheReluctantIn2 @TunbridgeJacqui @sunsuneti1 @Gallon73 @battlebus141 @patcat68 @achildofthe70s @tradermark72 @Dave76s @TradingBasesUK @leannenaud @GeorgeO @Scrumpy222 @copytaster @pdosullivan @MarkDampier @SethLevine2 @brankinm @pauledenbrow @_investorsummit So disappointed - can’t be there as on holiday. This sounds like a fantastic event and lots of effort clearly gone in to making it happen. Have been listening to the twinpetes podcast for years and was really looking forward to meeting you @conkers3 and @HTVIOLA maybe next year.

@MathewGregory5 @jeffprestridge @MartinGilbert83 @marxnd @Frencheconomics @SKellyCEO @John_Stepek @EMR_Recruitment @samhagger @annabelbrodies @HTVIOLA @_samdb @jimgannonuk @Mike24775926 @MY21_Oracle @Jubiloo @karenwi17092279 @sanjkareer @JamesThorneley @Jarvy55 @RogerGreen2009 @Kirsty_Doyle_ @TheReluctantIn2 @TunbridgeJacqui @sunsuneti1 @Gallon73 @battlebus141 @patcat68 @achildofthe70s @tradermark72 @Dave76s @TradingBasesUK @leannenaud @GeorgeO @Scrumpy222 @copytaster @pdosullivan @MarkDampier @SethLevine2 @brankinm @pauledenbrow 📢DON'T MISS OUT📢ONLY TWO DAYS TO GO📢 🎟️Buy your tickets NOW for the exceptional @_investorsummit on 13/8/25 investorsummit.co.uk/tickets🎟️ Join leading fund managers, personal finance/ tax specialists, investment trusts experts & shrewd investors for what will be a fantastic day😊

#KINDNESSMATTERS💗Sending best wishes & positivity to ALL😊Have a great w/e🌞 #FF👏@jeffprestridge @MartinGilbert83 @marxnd @Frencheconomics @SKellyCEO @John_Stepek @EMR_Recruitment @samhagger @annabelbrodies @HTVIOLA @_samdb @jimgannonuk @Mike24775926 @MY21_Oracle @Jubiloo👏