Rohin Dhar@rohindhar
My thesis on San Francisco
Bought our primary residence here in early 2023 after years of renting.
For those following along, I do think homeownership is a terrible investment compared to a real investment and is something you should do for fun or as consumption.
But for me, was also a way to place a small contrarian bet on the city (and real estate values) when the chips are down. Also bc chips are down could get an offer accepted instead of competing against other buyers with 100x more money than us.
Here is my thesis as San Francisco, figured would be good to write it down and then look back in a few years.
Take it as an an assumption that all the “troubles” you see on the news are true, but it didn’t really come into play in my thesis.
Here goes:
OpenAI is here. A lot of the other AI companies decided to be here. A lot of the self driving car companies are here or nearby. Y Combinator moved here. Startup companies have increasingly realized they get more done in person and together.
The extent to which the next AI boom materializes, will probably produce a lot of wealth specifically here. A lot of white collar jobs or jobs with the word “driver” will turn into software revenue for Bay Area companies. Or companies somewhere at least.
Unfortunately because no housing supply ever gets built in San Francisco, a big effect of tenant friendly regulations is to drive up the prices of owner-occupied real estate. Ditto for Prop 13.
So that’s about it. No mention of anything else. Figured I’d write it down on paper here.
Next tech boom might be here, all the policies drive up the prices of owner-occupied real estate. Have to pay rent anyways so might as well place a bet with it.
Mostly for fun though and as a place to make memories with the family. Renting would probably be a better financial decision 😀