Patrick David

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@Scholars_Stage Govt institutions are Lindy but nobody wants to admit it cc @nntaleb

Exactly this. People outside Washington may not realize how much the sheen of invincibility/brilliance that once graced his efforts has been washed away--both for him personally and for the faction which he was seen as leader. His failure has makes him seem less powerful--and less threatening.

@Jordan_W_Taylor The amount of hurdles to overcome to get even a new winglet design into production these days,tells me the chance of it reaching production is the same as uss enterprise!

What was once old is new again: The century old archaism that is the strut-braced wing has long since disappeared from the world of aircraft, but it's about to come back in a big way, for the benefit of us all! Some radical new airliner design in your free Wednesday article...

@martinmbauer I don’t know how you have the patience and fortitude to reply so diligently to these glorified flat-earth accounts

At no point does this paper claim that "the 'Cosmic Microwave Background Radiation' can be explained entirely by the energy of recently discovered Early Mature Galaxies" What it actually suggests is that these galaxies might contribute a non-negligible contamination to the observed CMB signal. The CMB power spectrum matches the predictions of ΛCDM with extraordinary precision. The presence of additional microwave sources can't explain this (even at comparable energy density) To illustrate with an analogy: Imagine having a crystal-clear photo of a criminal, and a suspect matches the image in every respect, except they’re wearing a different t-shirt. The logic behind that tweet is essentially saying: "maybe the t-shirt committed the crime, and we've misunderstood everything."

@johnrushx I’m gonna unfollow everyone because your all I need

Tech Drama & News Recap 😳: 1. The entire X startup community was triggered as fk when they saw vibe coders doing text-to-$50k MRR from their phones during their elementary school breaks. 2. A16z published "RIP SEO". If you keep saying "tomorrow I'll die" one day you'll certainly right. 3. Sam adopts "the great artists steals". IYO claims OpenAI's Sam Altman heard their 2018 smart earbud pitch, passed, then copied it with Jony Ive's help, buying his company for $6.5B and naming it IO. 4. Zuck earned so much money from selling ads that he is paying $100M to anyone who moves from openai to meta (also they wanna buy Ilya, Runway & perplexity after buying ScaleAI) 5. Apple needs an indian CEO, so they're having acquisition talks with perplexity (is anyone still using perplexity?) 6. Real coders think it's below their status to touch vibe coding, so it was wrapped into CLIs to make it hot for them. 7. Jeff Bezos threw a $50B wedding because he can. 8. GPT5 will launch this summer, everyone gonna go bananas to later realize that LLMs won't really get much better than what we had for a while now, because the LLM lawyer is exhausted, so now it's all about the application layer. 9. Palantir finally justified its valuation in just 12 days, or not? 10. Mr Beast shuts down his AI Thumbnail startup cuz everyone says he steals bread from human thumbnail artists. Pieter Levels doesn't give a sh*t about decels and launches the same thing over breakfast. 11. Dyson is now growing strawberries with robots and kicks in the great automation era, where literally every such job will be automated using robots and AI. 12. Roy from Cluely needs his own social media, because literally every other tweet is somehow related to him right now. This dude is an embodiment of the new gold: the ability to go viral and win attention. 13. Every fu*king big&small tech product is pivoting into "AI Builder". Now, Airtable has entered the chat too. 14. AI companies now build their own browsers: perplexity, theBrowserCompany and most likely everyone else gonna join the party soon. 15. Karpathy had perhaps the best keynote of this decade on a YC startup school. (one of the commentats under his video "this dude probably never built anything with AI :DD) 16. All our passwords were stolen and leaked to the dark web, 134234th time. 17. Two bootstrapped companies were aqcuired by Unicorns with a 49 year earnout period. A shortcut from freedom to increasing shareholder value. 18. A bunch of kids have bigger MRR than you: 16yo dude running $10M company and 10yo kid going viral. I'm sorry, but most likely we're too old for this sh*t, must pivot into farming until it's not too late (i'm literally doing that). 19. The text-to-video is getting so good, my IG feed is occupied by viral AI models and I must admit, I prefer them over human models. I have very bad news for OF models, pivot into farming too, until it's not too late. Or wait, farming is being automated by Dyson...idk then. 20. It's been 1021 days since we were promised that vibe coding gonna take over, but it seems like those vibe coded apps are so good that founders dont share them publicly as their internal MOAT. Huge if True. 21. The marketing video game has stepped up like crazy, now we're expected to shoot a Tarantino level mini movies, after Roy(Cluely) vids. 22. The education has been revolutionaized: They merge hard topic (math) with boobs and every boy will be so obsessed with it. Tbh, I learned more math while watching that vid series with Sydnei Sweney than my entire math circiculum in the uni. U seen it? 23. VC flexed by saying "had a 3 figure founder flexing about his mrr" and was immidetly canceled. I'm sorry for him, he tried to win attention like all of us, but took it too far. 24. Vibe Valuing is a thing now: AI startups raised over a billion in the last 30 days so that those of us who missed the dotcom bubble burst could enjoy the AI bubble burst in about 2 years. 25. Jack Friks won everyone's hearts on X with his authentic profile, blessing from Levelsio and social media scheduler. Another famous maker entered the chat to clone his validated idea and outbid his users. Lets see who wins in this fight of 'authenticity' vs 'its-just-a-business' 26. A complete prompt that can vibe code entire chatgpt with one shot has been leaked and later removed from the internet. I still have a copy, reply "i want it" and I'll send it to you. 27. Elon's rocket blew up, making half of the US happy and the other half upset. 28. Peter Thiel realized he might be the very Antichrist he warned about, building Palantir with another dude who looks like an AI composite of every single CEO from a movie where the villain is an evil corporation. 29. Socialist that wants to jail billioners for making too much money and creatiing too much value is a mayor of New York, finally there will be a place where being poor is celebrated. 30. Anthropic tested Claude running a virtual business...relax..it failed just like most of us. Founders are safe. 31. University of Osaka researchers achieved “level-zero” magic-state distillation on June 27, 2025, reducing qubit overhead for quantum computers. I have no fking clue what it means, I bet you too, which means VCs gonna pour the money their way. 32. Pope Leo says the biggest sin one can commit is to replace humans with AI.

The covariance between rock climbing and being a physics phd is 90% Iykyk

@balajis I still find context window to be the main bottle neck - how large can it grow?

Yes. A few miscellaneous thoughts. (1) First, the new bottleneck on AI is prompting and verifying. Since AI does tasks middle-to-middle, not end-to-end. So business spend migrates towards the edges of prompting and verifying, even as AI speeds up the middle. (2) Second, AI really means amplified intelligence, not agentic intelligence. The smarter you are, the smarter the AI is. Better writers are better prompters. (3) Third, AI doesn’t really take your job, it allows you to do any job. Because it allows you to be a passable UX designer, a decent SFX animator, and so on. But it doesn’t necessarily mean you can do that job *well*, as a specialist is often needed for polish. (4) Fourth, AI doesn’t take your job, it takes the job of the previous AI. For example: Midjourney took Stable Diffusion’s job. GPT-4 took GPT-3’s job. Once you have a slot in your workflow for AI image gen, AI code gen, or the like, you just allocate that spend to the latest model. (5) Fifth, killer AI is already here — and it’s called drones. And every country is pursuing it. So it’s not the image generators and chatbots one needs to worry about. (6) Sixth, decentralized AI is already here and it’s essentially polytheistic AI (many strong models) rather than monotheistic AI (a single all-powerful model). That means balance of power between human/AI fusions rather than a single dominant AI that will turn us all into paperclips/pillars of salt. (7) Seventh, AI is probabilistic while crypto is deterministic. So crypto can constrain AI. For example, AI can break captchas, but it can’t fake onchain balances. And it can solve some equations, but not cryptographic equations. Thus, crypto is roughly what AI can’t do. (8) Eighth, I think AI on the whole right now is having a decentralizing effect, because there is so much more a small team can do with the right tooling, and because so many high quality open source models are coming. All this could change if self-prompting, self-verifying, and self-replicating AI in the physical world really gets going. But there are open research questions between here and there.

@nntaleb ‘Hosting an audience with my blokees’ is such a Nassim thing to do !

Nice to run into people I've blocked. But I thought I was very, very nice online.

@NikoMcCarty These weekly updates are a godsend 🙏 I wish more people did this for their topic of expertise, thank you!

This week in biotech: 1. Bacteria were engineered to convert PET plastic into acetaminophen. 2. Exciting progress in genome-editing plants while skipping tissue culture. 3. A French woman may be the first with this new blood type: Gwada Negative. 4. NeuroPixels tested in non-human primates, with 4,416 recording sites. 5. Arc Institute releases v1.0 of their Virtual Cell Model. Also launches a Virtual Cell competition with $100,000 prize. 6. CryoFold is “a deep learning method that enables end-to-end training and one-shot inference” of cryo-EM images. 7. “From 1 July, researchers funded by the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) will be required to make their scientific papers available to read for free as soon as they are published in a peer-reviewed journal.” 8. Phase 3 trial where patients received two weight-loss drugs together: semaglutide and cagrilintide. “The estimated mean change in body weight from baseline to week 68 was −13.7% in the cagrilintide–semaglutide group and −3.4% in the placebo group.” 9. DeepMind releases AlphaGenome, AI tool that “predicts how single variants or mutations in human DNA sequences impact a wide range of biological processes regulating genes.” 10. Researchers release a 3D single-cell spatiotemporal multi-omics dataset profile of the fruit fly, from embryo to pupa. 11. Urea spontaneously forms from carbon dioxide and ammonia in aqueous droplets. ... and more.🔻

Roger federer is now a billionaire and made more money from his footwear deal than his tennis career. Are there any other examples of this - making more from something other than their main career? I can think of a few: 1. Bono - Private Equity 2. Michael Jordan - Nike 3. George Clooney - Casamigos Tequila 4. Dr. Dre - Beats any others ? any others ? bloomberg.com/news/newslette…

@rasbt Sadly I think these new positions will only be a temporary reprieve, before they are made obsolete too - the rate of progress is too strong

Job roles in 2027: We let LLMs focus on the “how”. We focus on the “why”. Programmer → Code Composer Before: Writing code line by line After: Designing logic & structuring systems Web Dev → Experience Designer Before: Building layouts and components After: Defining flow, behavior, and structure Data Scientist → Analytics Strategist Before: Cleaning data, structuring queries After: Framing questions, interpreting outcomes

@bronzeagepapi Ride XOR die only

Will you be my ride or die?

@FrnkNlsn I add so many of your recommendations to my book list! Cheers 🙏

Imho, one of the best short introduction to differential geometry for beginners. Useful to get started in information geometry!

@maxhenningsson Ahh gotcha, yeah I’m finding CapCut too TikToky as well

@pdquant Thanks, yeah I basically want screen studio but for video editing haha :) Me trying capcut was what initiated my tweet. Way too buggy and bloated with content creator nonsense imo

what’s the best video editing tool these days for mac/web? No need for effects or advanced stuff just something to piece together animations made elsewhere, screen recordings etc into a video

@peterrhague It’s cynicism not pessimism- ask any advertising exec, they will tell you brits are the most cynical audience cc @rorysutherland

The UK public is quite severely misled on this. Saying its unlikely is betting against the combined efforts of NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin and the Chinese space program, all at the same time. This is such a pessimistic country, which is a defence mechanism and an excuse, and its going to be rough for a lot of people when reality catches up and they realise the rest of the world wasn't content to stand still.

What’s your biggest AI regret? Back in the day there was a lot of low hanging fruit to be picked in improving the algebraic subroutines on GPU’s - Before Nvidia cornered the industry. BLAS CUBLAS LAPACK etc Were talking in the weeds algebra stuff like Matrix-matrix operations, SVD, eigenvalue decomposition etc. Some of the maths was (marginally) inefficient but as things have scaled those percentage points began to matter! I ignored this problem because all the cool shiny stuff was at the model architecture layer and above. If I could go back, I would have worked on this unglamorous largely unappreciated foundational part of our modern world. I don’t know how active an area this is anymore - I assume Nvidia has the best people working on it. So next time you ask ChatGPT to generate a meme about a toad, spare a thought for all the unsung algebrists making sure those pixels get forward propagated as efficiently as possible. We salute thee 🫡 @karpathy @demishassabis @DarioAmodei @ClementDelangue

@brianbondy Agreed x.com/pdquant/status…

LLMs are too agreeable.

@geoffreylitt I haven’t tried it but the email-as-feed reminds me of ‘hey’ from @37signals from a few years back.

I’ve been using Cora email for a few weeks now - it felt very strange at first (I almost quit) but then I came around and I’m a fan. The key insight of the product is that it turns email from an inbox into a feed. Lemme explain. Inbox = tacit obligation, you must complete every one of these items Feed = dip in when you want, no obligations - like Twitter The default metaphor for email is an inbox, which is completely insane when you think about what comes in there. Cora auto-archives most of your email. Things only stay in your inbox if it thinks you need to reply. And then you just skim a couple briefs every day. Feels more like a feed. This was very spooky at first! What if I miss something important?? Well, turns out that if I generally try to keep an eye on my Cora briefs, then I’m fine. In fact I’m actually less likely to miss stuff, because even an imperfect prioritization beats the status quo of drowning in an endless list. And obviously ads / newsletters fit better as a feed rather than an inbox. The result is that I can treat 99% of my email as a feed, and my inbox becomes a true inbox. In my case that means like a few emails a day max. It’s fascinating to contrast this product with Superhuman. The Cora interface is very slow, clunky, and lacking polish compared to Superhuman. It’s more “website” than “app”. But it turns out that’s totally fine… Because I’d rather skim a feed of my email than power thru an inbox with maximum speed. I feel conflicted about this conclusion. In the abstract I love Superhuman - fast precise no-nonsense tools (in fact I’m still using it on top of Cora for now…) But Cora, the more automated AI-heavy approach, turns out to be my preference. I think the crux is that email isn’t something I’m trying to be great at, it’s something I want to do *less of*. And when that’s the goal, a more automated “delegation” approach is actually pretty nice. Anyway, I recommend trying it out! Give it 2 weeks before making a judgement. I predict many will hate it and some will love it :) (No affiliation just excited to share my 2c, nice work @danshipper @kieranklaassen)

@c_valenzuelab Isn’t the finite nature of a story, what makes it special? - it captures a moment in time, a place, a feeling?

I’m very convinced we are heading towards a world where we are changing the substance of media itself. It's not static. It's alive. Stories that recast themselves, that rewrite their own scripts in the moment, just for you. A story that learns and grows with you. A conversation.