Randy Steuart

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Randy Steuart

Randy Steuart

@randysteuart

(mostly) credit guy lookin for bps and peops

Toronto شامل ہوئے Eylül 2025
1 فالونگ1.4K فالوورز
Randy Steuart
Randy Steuart@randysteuart·
it’s 1982. US treasuries are yielding 13%. bonds are trading at a huge discount. you’re exxon. you have excess cash. you issued bonds in the good times. and now you want to buy your bonds back in the 60’s. but most investors account for the bonds at book value (cost). selling them to you would trigger a writedown and getting yelled at. so you’re stuck. “why couldn’t you just ‘make-whole’ these bonds” you ask? (the standard option of buying back a bond very early at a yield close to treasuries) because it’s 1982. make-wholes were born in the mid 90’s. “you can’t do that” exxon might give up on it. but then a guy at morgan guaranty trust comes up with a solution. defeasance. retiring the bonds by way of buying and setting aside enough US treasuries to cover the bonds. the nuclear option. exxon defeases its 515mm of bonds for 60 cents on the dollar in treasury bonds. then every company wants to know what this newfangled defeasance thing is. nothing new under the sun.
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Randy Steuart
Randy Steuart@randysteuart·
@johnarnold "Amend and Extend" (Pretend), final answer "we had to" ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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John Arnold
John Arnold@johnarnold·
Private credit funds will be very reluctant to roll over software loans when they mature. The closed-end funds can't refi any loans right now given redemptions. Since many loans were taken to pay dividends to sponsors, how will they repay maturing loans? Will sponsors put new $ into the companies? many are past investment period. Bring in new equity? that will be tough and pricey. Refi with a mezz lender? will be at much higher rate. Walk away? Huge loss and hit to reported marks. In every situation, the equity is worth less even if business performance hasn't changed.
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Randy Steuart
Randy Steuart@randysteuart·
While the $EA Defeasance Threatened Tender (DTT) challenge plays out, $SIRI seen pulling a DTT on its 2026 bondholders to save a grand total of... ~50 cents. 50% declined to tender. Co confirmed the exercise of Defeasance to those dissenting bondholders. ...padme.jpg Not Investment Advice. Not Legal Advice.
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Randy Steuart
Randy Steuart@randysteuart·
Busy morning in Digital Media. $ZD sells Connectivity for >10x. $1.2Bn cash. Stock is up >60%. Trades now at ***checks notes*** 2.2x PF EBITDA. Plus we've got a fresh transaction in a declining revenue "website" comp: Care.com. IAC sold it for ~6.5x EBITDA. Judging by the market reaction ($45), looks like the market is valuing Ziff Davis' cash and investments at ~30 CENTS on the dollar. Assumes remainco EBITDA is valued at 5x. Returning the cash to shareholders here seems like the most reasonable course of action. Interesting to compare $ZD's PF enterprise multiple of 2.2x to People.com debt (DOTMER) which trades low 9's yield at 4 times leverage. If the debt market is comfy going to 4x leverage on digital media assets, there are plenty of options here for Ziff and none of them have to do with buying other assets. Disclaimer: We own ZD at Ewing Morris. Views are our own, not investment advice. Sources: Bloomberg and Ewing Morris
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Randy Steuart@randysteuart

The Roadmap Sell or Spin (a la Diller) Connectivity. Provides real-time data on internet and WiFi networks. News: IT’S NOT EVEN A PUBLISHING ASSET! It’s a subscription-based cash machine with excellent long term growth. With a ~45% EBITDA margin… 10x? 15x? Takes out the market cap right there with selling ONLY 20% of EBITDA? Sell Health & Wellness. News: Double digit revs and EBITDA growth. (What AI?) Likely highest multiple digital media segment. Condition-mapped pharma audiences (both HCP’s and patients). 10x here? That’s another ~multiple of market cap? So here we are at ~2x the total market cap on about only 50% of co EBITDA. What about the rest? Who cares!? Actually, me. And Vivek. And you might too. 7/8

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Randy Steuart
Randy Steuart@randysteuart·
$EA DTT Update:
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Randy Steuart
Randy Steuart@randysteuart·
If the credit market has ANY capitalistic sense left, this defeasance option should be wiped from new issues. The Optional Redemption covenant already affords issuers what they need to unilaterally retire their bonds.
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Randy Steuart
Randy Steuart@randysteuart·
There it is. The most unwelcome development in public credit since LME: The Defeasance Threatened Tender. Today's casualty - the $EA 2051 senior bondholders. Traded just yesterday in the low 90's. This morning's tender... SEVENTIES. ...AND if BH's don't take the deal, the defeasance option is even worse... Kind of incredible this left tail risk wasn't more baked in. But then again, before this inaugural thread of mine calling it out in September, I had exactly zero followers. Public credit and shareholder engagement are my beats. Follow if interested. DM's open.
Randy Steuart@randysteuart

But the crazy thing is there's actually a big left tail now - EA could consider its option of defeasance. IYKYK. NIA, NLA, NAA (Not advice about anything).

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Randy Steuart
Randy Steuart@randysteuart·
Or even $0/seat stuff. Some people are shipping quality product for free into the wild. A lot of it built around better UI. For example, I found thisisnotsedar.com Canada updated its EDGAR-equivalent in 2023. It was SUPER janky. Former inv't guy @atelicinvest couldn't take it anymore and vibecoded a vastly better UI.
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Deirdre Bosa
Deirdre Bosa@dee_bosa·
JPM is right... cowork isn't replacing all enterprise software. But thats not the point. AI coding isn't coming for the database or the compliance layer... its coming for the $50/seat UI that's just a fancy way to view and edit data. Software isn't dying but the interaction layer *is getting commoditized. important to sort between the two. $crwd $panw prolly safe. $mndy $hubs $team $adbe less so
Trevor Scott@TidefallCapital

"It feels like an illogical leap to extrapolate from Claude Cowork Plugins, to this expectation that every company will hereby write and maintain a bespoke product to replace every layer of mission-critical enterprise software they have ever deployed." - JPM

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Dan
Dan@dan_tmt·
Anyone have any interesting special situations with a catalyst ideas they are watching?
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Compound248 💰
Compound248 💰@compound248·
I spent the past seven days only tweeting about AI and finance stuff and engaging with Fintwit / VC posts. Miracle of miracles, my For You timeline has healed and is now unbelievably awesome. If your timeline is full of ragebait, I hate to do it, but I offer you a mirror.
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Wouter Teunissen
Wouter Teunissen@WouterTeunissen·
Power laws rule everything around me
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Dalius - Special Sits
Dalius - Special Sits@InvestSpecial·
Time to throw around some ideas heading into 2026. What’s your top special situation/event-driven play at the moment? Any sector, any region. Prefer sub-$5B, but exceptions welcome if the case is strong👇 h/t @Hedgeye for the great cartoons.
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Randy Steuart
Randy Steuart@randysteuart·
The Ziff Davis MBO 2.0 Fun fact: Vivek actually MBO’d an earlier incarnation of Ziff Davis in 2010. Sold it in 2012 for a 3.2x MOC. Just ask Great Hill Partners about it. Seems like an opportunity? The pieces are there? 1) credit market’s wide open… 2) market multiple starts with a 3 or 4-handle… and 3) Vivek’s done this before. What’s else do you need? Private Equity? Only if Vivek would have them. If he doesn’t, according to the market in DOTMER (People Inc bonds), the market seems there for Vivek to replicate the Diller playbook at People Inc via a 4x-levered uni-tranche secured financing (paging private credit) and dividend recap the thing without PE! But, if a take-private, add 1-2 turns of equity, a pinch of salt and serve the warm cash back to shareholders. All of it! /end
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Randy Steuart
Randy Steuart@randysteuart·
Ziff Davis - $ZD Top ‘Value Trap’ in digital media. Trades ~3.1x ‘25 EBITDA. Market thinks AI has impaired the business, so much so that the math points to a discount of seventy percent on Ziff’s Cash. A seventy percent discount on Cash. Naturally, CEO Vivek Shah disagrees. Announced a strategic review in November in response to inbounds. So we’re going to see who’s right! My take below. 1/8
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