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Quant Chad

@Autonomous_Chad

Crunching numbers in prediction markets. Betting against the herd. Quant @ZEITFinance

Tham gia Nisan 2024
179 Đang theo dõi8.4K Người theo dõi
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Quant Chad
Quant Chad@Autonomous_Chad·
It's now clear to all but a few lunatics that memecoins are done Prediction markets have taken their place in the heart of degens, just like memecoins took NFT's Yet every time you point this out, a demented memecoin fanatic screeches out in reply : "But brother ! I have seen people make x1000 in a day on memecoins, Prediction Markets are child's play ! " And yes : - he's probably talking about a fake screenshot he saw on his timeline - It was made on the back of a 99.6% loss rate retail audience that has since deserted the market But no matter how unhygienic and mentally ill he is. He still has some sort of a point. Facts are, although extremely rare, these things do happen and there is a certain kind of degen audience that lives only for it. So how do we reach them ? 1) Problem The upside on a single market is fundamentally capped, in theory at 1000x, in reality, at much less. The cheapest you can buy a share on Polymarket is in theory $0.001 (0.1c), if they go to the max of $1 then it's a 1000x But even now you will have an extremely hard time finding a counter party that wants to buy the opposite side at $0.999. When trading fees are introduced it will make even less sense for traders to buy shares at $0.999 since fees will eat all their profit So introducing even smaller denominations wont increase the multiple potential 2) Solution Derivatives. We need Derivatives. But we can't have perps on single markets with capped upside and an expiry date ( They are called Perpetuals for a reason) That's why we created Perpetual Prediction Vaults at @ZEITFinance, you invest not in a market but in a fund that constantly reinvest the proceeds in new markets. The vault can be operated : - By a good trader - According to predetermined strategy - By a bot or statistical model It doesn't really matter. What matters most is that we have transformed the single market outcome into a continuous price series. Now we can tokenize it. Which means we can plug it in all the existing DeFi eco, including perps. This way : > there is no limit to how much you can make. > the memecoin schizo can shut up > the degen can chase his 10000x As you see we worked very hard to kill the memecoin reply schizo and every minute of it was worth it
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Quant Chad
Quant Chad@Autonomous_Chad·
Research by ZEIT over 600M data points shows that small moves in the market, more often than not, revert to the mean > 70% of -+1c excursion revert to the mean rather than making another move in the same direction (figure ) So taking the opposite side of every small price move would statistically yield returns We tested this exact strategy, both on historical data and in a live environment and it was shown both time to yield positive returns (figure 2) We wouldn't share that information if we wanted to keep the strategy to ourselves. Instead, we are going to deploy it to one of our algorithmic vaults so the public will be able to invest in it I'll keep you informed as soon as it's out, stay tuned
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ZEIT@ZEITFinance

x.com/i/article/2034…

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Quant Chad
Quant Chad@Autonomous_Chad·
@yri911 The will eventually TGE I think just to not expose themselves to litigation but it will be in another 18 months for a token with no utility just to say that they did it
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Yri
Yri@yri911·
We will never see OpenSea TGE Empty words mean nothing. That’s why I backed my thesis with my own money. I rotated my profits from the $1B and $2B markets into this position. So when could TGE theoretically happen? > Q1 is canceled. The 60-day zero-fee trading period will end by summer > Summer is historically a weak period for crypto. Even if the market doesn’t keep dropping, it will likely move sideways rather than make new highs, as there are no signs of a V-shaped recovery > That means, even in the most optimistic scenario, TGE won’t happen before September Over these six months, interest in NFTs in general and OpenSea in particular will decline even further, pushing my position into profit regardless of overall market conditions. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
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Yri@yri911

Lost at SEA. Again Yesterday, Opensea postponed its TGE indefinitely and proved they are one of the most greedy and dumb teams in crypto. By a lucky coincidence, a team of untrainable retards found themselves at the origin of an incredible NFT hype, and because of that, this group of scammers became ultra-wealthy. > They’ve generated $2.8B in fees over the lifetime of the protocol. > Raised $425M in funding. > And still it’s not enough. The CEO now says the market conditions are not right for a token launch and that they should wait for better times. And generously, they “allow” users to get their fees refunded in 3–6 waves. What about the first wave, which had volumes equal to all the others combined? Rhetorical question. After already making nearly $3B from some of the highest fees in crypto history, they decided to farm their users even more by teasing a token. Over the past year, this “farming” brought them another ~$10M - not even 1% of their total revenue. Was it really worth it? They could have launched the token in late 2022 – early 2023. NFT hype was fading, but monthly fees were still around $10M, and project FDVs were in the billions. SEA could have easily reached $5B+ FDV. They missed the moment. They could have launched in late 2024, when even Donald Trump was launching memecoins and altcoin valuations were near cycle highs. They got rekt again. Finally, they could have launched in late 2025 - BTC and ETH were at highs, liquidity was still in the market. Even then, a $2–3B FDV was realistic. Third missed opportunity. Meanwhile, interest in NFTs has been declining for 4 straight years - and that trend will never end. Even the last major NFT marketplace, Magic Eden, is cutting staff, shutting down divisions, and its token is down 98% from TGE, now valued at just ~$120M. Even today, they could probably launch at around $500M FDV. But for Opensea, that’s not enough - they blame the market. The reality is simpler: it’s not the market - it’s that both you and NFTs are no longer in demand. And the longer they delay the TGE, the lower the token price will go. Even if the market has bottomed and BTC goes above $100K, it won’t happen tonight or next week. NFT interest will keep fading, and SEA valuation will keep shrinking. And what if the market keeps bleeding for another 6 months? What if we revisit these levels in a year or more? Will Opensea even be worth $200M by then? I highly doubt it. If you farmed the airdrop - take the refund. Don’t listen to anyone telling you to wait for TGE. And unfollow them - they will lead you to getting wiped out. Opensea TGE will NEVER happen. p.s. Polymarket gives 78% that we will see TGE this year. Safe bet on No at 22c lol

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Quant Chad
Quant Chad@Autonomous_Chad·
@GollumGekko1 @MikeLevin @mehdirhasan If they start removing war markets soon we will be left with only sports and financial markets. At this point Polymarket will be nothing more than a sportsbook with a crypto exchange attached
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GollumGekko
GollumGekko@GollumGekko1·
@MikeLevin @mehdirhasan The people who made the threats and tried to scam this market should to be prosecuted as hard as the lane permits but removing the war markets is going the wrong way about things
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Mike Levin
Mike Levin@MikeLevin·
This is totally insane. A war correspondent just received death threats from online gamblers who wanted him to change his reporting on an Iranian missile strike so they could collect a payout. One bettor had $900,000 riding on the outcome. He told the journalist he knew where he lived and who his family members were.  This is what prediction markets on life and death actually look like in practice. This is exactly why I introduced the DEATH BETS Act with Senator @AdamSchiff. The DEATH BETS Act would ban contracts on assassinations, deaths of world leaders, and acts of war on platforms like Polymarket. This story shows exactly why that matters.  When you let people place million-dollar bets on whether a missile kills someone, you create a financial incentive to threaten journalists, manipulate information, and profit from human suffering. washingtonpost.com/technology/202…
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Quant Chad
Quant Chad@Autonomous_Chad·
@prophet_notes I'm afraid there was never any intention of making a deal in the first place
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PROPHET
PROPHET@prophet_notes·
It turns out Obama was a better deal maker than Trump after all.
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Quant Chad
Quant Chad@Autonomous_Chad·
@0xd1namit But what's the point in farming manually when we have bots to do that ? What's the edge that human judgment can add ?
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d1namit
d1namit@0xd1namit·
Yesterday I made ~$270 in LP rewards using $12k, that’s 2.25% in a single day (820% APY) You hit 50 likes yesterday, so here’s the guide I’d break it down into 2 approaches: 1. Chill farming With this approach you just check your positions sometimes and move them 2–3 times a day. That’s what I personally do I look for markets where there are already several million shares sitting in limit orders. That way the risk of your order getting filled drops a lot (this is for 1c tick markets) For 0.1c tick markets I place limit orders far from the mid price. I also look for huge orders and just join them 2. Active farming like a full-time job Differences vs method 1: - You place orders on both sides across basically all markets with high rewards regardless of liquidity - You reopen orders at least once per hour, preferably more often - You farm during live matches (this is for pros with strong info sources). You can also farm during breaks in games Here the risks are much higher, but so are the rewards. Top 1 farmer made $19.5k in the last 24 hours.
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d1namit@0xd1namit

LP rewards ATH on Polymarket Top 1 trader made 7k$ on farming for last 24h, I made ~80$ yesterday and already 116$ today 50 likes and I'll make a guide on how I do it

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Quant Chad
Quant Chad@Autonomous_Chad·
@Nik_Poly The june one is even better IMO. It's sitting at 70c right now. I don't see how the regime falls by June
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Nik
Nik@Nik_Poly·
I am risking $12.415 to profit $585 on whether the Iranian regime will fall before March 31. That's 300% APY💸
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Quant Chad
Quant Chad@Autonomous_Chad·
@lunatik_corp very important to place orders on both sides because the formula will slash your rewards by 1/3 if not
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lunatik
lunatik@lunatik_corp·
I wrote this guide on how to farm liquidity rewards 4 months ago Now the rewards are 6.6x higher compared to November, and it’s especially relevant for liquidity farmers The best trader made $19,500 in the last 24 hours Recommended for reading:
lunatik@lunatik_corp

Best strategy for people with small deposit on Polymarket I tried farming rewards by providing liquidity on Polymarket. In just half an hour, I earned $6 on a $90 investment. That's 122,640% APY. How It Works: In the Rewards tab, you can see numerous markets where you can place limit orders with specific conditions to earn rewards. It's important to respect the max spread and min shares. The less competition and higher rewards, the more you'll earn. My case: today I captured 50% of the market with $150 in rewards. That's a lot. How I Select Markets: – Sort all markets by reward amount. I look at the 'competition' scale. If there are only 1-2 bars, I study the market more carefully. It's important to me that there isn't too much liquidity in the price range I need. I skip 0 bars. – Skip markets with too much spread. Your order might fill at an unfavorable price, forcing you to sell at a loss. – Skip illiquid markets. If my order fills, I won't be able to sell the shares to anyone. – Markets with tight spreads (1-3) are good picks. I look for the right price to buy. I try to place my orders second or third in the order book so they don't fill first. – Place orders at existing price levels. If I see someone opened an order at $0.35 for $50, I'll place my order at that same price. I do this so if someone wants to sell at $0.35, their order fills faster and with higher probability than mine. – Open orders on 20-30 markets simultaneously to earn rewards from everywhere. – Check each order frequently to make sure it's not approaching the mid price and getting filled unexpectedly. – Always use only half my balance for orders. This ensures that if one order fills, the other orders don't get canceled and continue farming. – Check notifications constantly to see if any of my orders filled unexpectedly. – Always check market end dates. If a market ends in less than 24 hours, be careful—you could lose money. – Avoid highly volatile markets. You can also lose money on those. These are my core principles that I use. Hope this was helpful!

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PM.WIKI
PM.WIKI@PredMarketWiki·
🆕 New project added to the prediction markets wiki EventWaves @EventWavesIO is an analytics platform for identifying high edge opportunities on Polymarket. It analyzes trader skill and market momentum to surface trades with strong expected value 🌊📊
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Quant Chad
Quant Chad@Autonomous_Chad·
@GwartyGwart What if he said it but there are no recordings ? Can I still get away with it ?
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Gwart
Gwart@GwartyGwart·
if a crypto lawyer doesn’t say “I am not your lawyer” very clearly and audibly you can do any crime and then they have to go to jail for you. those are the rules
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