@lionel19_74 There are times for that. But i think it's just better to drill into individual industry groups
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Ariel Hernandez
22.9K posts
Ariel Hernandez
@RealSimpleAriel
Day trader turned swing trader. Here to help others improve their trading! Join me for live streaming on Discord. https://t.co/RRhmvGkkh0
Sign up Private Discord 👉 Tham gia Nisan 2020
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@RealSimpleAriel interesting take. would you say it's better to watch the QQQe ?
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Action within individual leading themes is far more impressive than what we are seeing with $SPY $QQQ.
Here is the clear and obvious reason why. Names that can carry these markets higher are themselves struggling to make meaningful progress for months.
SPY top holdings by weight:
$NVDA 7.68% hugging the 200sma
$AAPL 6.53% and 1% above the 200sma
$MSFT 5.16% and below the 200sma
$AMZN 3.64% and below the 200sma
$GOOGL 3.14% and below the 50sma
$AVGO 2.64% below the 200sma
$GOOG 2.50% below the 50sma
$META 2.36 below the 200sma
$BRK.A 1.57% below the 200sma
That's 35.22% of the ETF struggling to move higher within the SPY
QQQ top holdings by weight:
$NVDA 8.67%
$AAPL 7.37%
$MSFT 5.82%
$AMZN 4.51%
$TSLA 3.91% below the 200sma
$META 3.59%
$GOOGL 3.55%
$WMT 3.31% below the 50sma
$GOOG 3.28%
$AVGO 2.98%
That is 47% of the ETF struggling to move higher within the QQQ.
If we get too distracted by what the ETFs are doing we lose sight of all the the strength that IS working its way higher
I'm not trying to minimize the difficulty of this environment but we need to have a good understanding of what is really holding things back.
Ariel Hernandez@RealSimpleAriel
3/19/2026 Daily Recap: Bulls did some heavy lifting! - $QQQ $SPY where have we seen this movie before? Gap down reversal for the 8th time in 6 weeks. - $SNDK $WDC $STX $LITE $CIEN $AXTI $BE $AAOI $TSEM $PL $FSLY we cannot lose sight of how impressive the individual leadership has been in this market. - $GLD $GDX $SLV $SILJ with large gaps lower this morning. I think the edge is gone there for a short for the time being. - $IGV continues to try and carve out a bottom. - $XLF was nice to see the late day rebound as well. $GS bounce off the 200sma and plays a large role for the Dow $YM_F. - $XLK the largest component of the $SPY had its own drop and reversal today. Would be nice to see a follow through day soon if we are going to break this string of lower highs. - $XLV currently broken $LLY $ABBV $MCK not helping - $UFO a group to watch tomorrow on the back of $PL. $RKLB $ASTS $KTOS $KRMN etc. - $XLE $XOP $OIH still the strongest group in the market but a little multiweek pause here would be totally normal. A bit extended on a $CVX $APA $AR $FANG $VLO. My base case is a breather. - $SMH also a gap and reversal today. The market cannot afford to lose this group. $AMD super job holding the 200sma. $LSCC $TSEM $LRCX $KLAC $TSM $ASML $INTC great action from the open.
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@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt $IGV $BTC $XLF already very beaten up. Individual market leaders holding up incredibly well. NAAIM lowest since last April. COT not crowded. There is an argument to be made for a bullish or bearish narrative right now
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Can anyone point me towards a macro analyst that is bullish the stock market here? I would like to interview him/her. Thanks in advance.
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@DiscipleStock Slow and steady brother. knowledge, once gained, is yours forever
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@RealSimpleAriel Nice. I've learned a lot from your pre-market prep for the last year.
After watching your $SLV short, I've been tempted to try that side (especially parabolic ones), but decided to 1st wait to be consistently profitable on the long side
Thanks for the knowledge shared every day
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3/19/2026 Daily Recap: Bulls did some heavy lifting!
- $QQQ $SPY where have we seen this movie before? Gap down reversal for the 8th time in 6 weeks.
- $SNDK $WDC $STX $LITE $CIEN $AXTI $BE $AAOI $TSEM $PL $FSLY we cannot lose sight of how impressive the individual leadership has been in this market.
- $GLD $GDX $SLV $SILJ with large gaps lower this morning. I think the edge is gone there for a short for the time being.
- $IGV continues to try and carve out a bottom.
- $XLF was nice to see the late day rebound as well. $GS bounce off the 200sma and plays a large role for the Dow $YM_F.
- $XLK the largest component of the $SPY had its own drop and reversal today. Would be nice to see a follow through day soon if we are going to break this string of lower highs.
- $XLV currently broken $LLY $ABBV $MCK not helping
- $UFO a group to watch tomorrow on the back of $PL. $RKLB $ASTS $KTOS $KRMN etc.
- $XLE $XOP $OIH still the strongest group in the market but a little multiweek pause here would be totally normal. A bit extended on a $CVX $APA $AR $FANG $VLO. My base case is a breather.
- $SMH also a gap and reversal today. The market cannot afford to lose this group. $AMD super job holding the 200sma. $LSCC $TSEM $LRCX $KLAC $TSM $ASML $INTC great action from the open.
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@nextcloud1 @801010athlete is this the same reason $TSEM $CIEN $LITE $BE was up so much. or maybe just a coincidence 👀
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@RealSimpleAriel @801010athlete Someone knew today. That’s why Dell was up so much.
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@YOgandiiii Look at the first two names on my list. And I personally bought $BE. Believe it or not it didn’t take much fortitude to buy that pullback into a rising moving average. You just needed to be prepared from the night before
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@RealSimpleAriel I get what everyone is saying but it’s insanely difficult to just take the plunge on those stocks that were strong today. It took a lot of fortitude to slam the buy button this morning if you ask me.
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@801010athlete I loved seeing it! $DELL was part of a bundle of names with the ol’ oops reversal! A powerful day around the leading themes and names. $LITE $COHR $CIEN $STX $SNDK $DELL $AAOI $BE $KRMN $AMD $LRCX $GEV $KLAC. A good reminder to stay engaged! 🙏
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@DiscipleStock well $SLV short has basically made my year so far. but I knew that trade had massive opportunity so not entirely surprising.
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@RealSimpleAriel Didn't explain myself right.
Out of curiosity (if you don't mind), roughly what portion of your YTD returns would you attribute to long positions versus short positions?
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@DiscipleStock $NFLX was from last year. $VLO and $XOM are both 30%+ winners. so equal to $GDX.
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@RealSimpleAriel Hi Ariel, would you say that your short trades (SLV, NFLX, GDX) have outperformed your long trades (VLO, XOM) YTD?
As a long-only trader I've found it hard to make any progress since the first two weeks of the year and have mostly stayed in cash for the last 1.5 months.
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@jpshooter123 Maybe starting tomorrow. I like MU still. earnings were incredible and the group is still very powerful
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@RealSimpleAriel When do we get to the part where everything just goes up ?🤷♂️
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Are we having fun yet? $MU
Who is willing to hold new risk into the weekend tomorrow?
Ariel Hernandez@RealSimpleAriel
Regardless if those earnings were priced in or not, here is one thing we know with certainty, bullish runs on memory have ALWAYS been cyclical. 2025-2026 has been what some call a “supercycle” but when price starts to ignore fundamentals it’s a good time to be on alert. 🚨 P.S. I have no clue if $MU is in the process of topping on those fantastic earnings or not.
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And the winner of the business $SMCI will lose goes to......
$XXXX
Marc Lehman@markflowchatter
Holy hell $SMCI Was out 2 hours ago :) People finally seeing this news This guy, smh
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@RealSimpleAriel Can you vibe a bull market while you’re at it?
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Can confirm. Been trying to vibe code my own $1.5T company for a few weeks now 🤣😂
Za@ZaStocks
Can’t vibe code rockets and SpaceX is planning to IPO at a $1.5T+ valuation later this year. Monitoring the situation on space stocks.
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Todays a perfect example of the emotional trader...
Morning: "World is ending! Market is Doomed!"
Afternoon: " Market is rebounding! These names look strong!"
Trend is still down. Until a FTD comes I'll sit knowing names might go on without me. If there is a true bull trend there will be plenty of profits to be had!
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@RealSimpleAriel $PL move today was notable. $RKLB does not look like it will recover for that offering soon.
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$RKLB files for 1 billion ATM offering.
Good. I didn't want to be up 8.5% on my new position anyway 😂🤣
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@TrenboloneUnit Loved the reversal as well! held that rising 20sma perfectly
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@Forged_Logic Digestion here would be healthy. I don't do too many targets. I don't like to influence myself when it comes to price action
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We did not see trends like this in the energy space 2022.
This trend right now in oil and gas is much more powerful and it's not even close. $XLE $OIH $XOP
Ariel Hernandez@RealSimpleAriel
Nearly every name on that list is green today. And some people are still wondering where money is going? $XOP $XLE $OIH Oil, Oil, Oil, Oil, Oil and rounding out second place Memory names.
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@RealSimpleAriel You may get your chance soon, it’s gone sideways for 6 weeks
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$PL with a possible 4th earnings gap up in a row 👀
Ariel Hernandez@RealSimpleAriel
$PL Q4 Revenue $86.8M Beats Vs $78.5M Est With Adj EPS $0.00 Vs -$0.05 Est, Posts EPS -$0.48 And Net Loss $152.5M On 54% Gross Margin Guides FY Revenue $415M-$440M Vs $379.6M Est. Would be positive for the group $RKLB $ASTS $KTOS $UFO if we could gap up.
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