FOMO guy

Why would you own stocks when bonds now pay almost the same? That's the question the market is starting to ask. The "equity risk premium" which is the extra return you get for taking the risk of owning stocks vs safe government bonds, has nearly disappeared. It's at the lowest level since the dot-com bubble burst in 2000. Stocks are only barely beating bonds on expected returns. But stocks can lose everything. Bonds won't.

Today, I spoke with the President Herzog of Israel. I reiterated that the appalling treatment of civilians aboard the Gaza-bound flotilla was unacceptable, and that respect for human dignity must be upheld everywhere, at all times. I underlined the imperative of de-escalation in the Middle East, and the importance of a genuine resumption of dialogue among all parties. Progress toward peace and stability in the region must remain the clear, shared objective.

BREAKING: Masked Islamists in Montreal paraded a Jew being hanged through the streets. Get every single one of these terrorists out of the West. Enough of this.

A big pivot from Ken Griffin on AI: “Number one is, in the last few months, there has been a step change in the productivity of the AI toolkit. It is profoundly more powerful than it was just nine months ago. And for us at Citadel, that has allowed us to unleash a much broader array of use cases for AI. And it has been really interesting to watch, to be blunt, work that we would usually do with people with masters and PhDs in finance over the course of weeks or months being done by AI agents over the course of hours or days. These are not these are not mid-tier white collar jobs. These are like extraordinarily high skilled jobs being, I'm going to pick a word, automated by agentic AI. And I gotta tell you, I went home one Friday actually fairly depressed by this because you could just see how this was going to have such a dramatic impact on society. When you witness it in your own four walls, when you see work that used to be man years of work being done in days or weeks, it's like, wow, like that's the first time I've seen real impact in our four walls.” This echoes my own experience with agents and the conversations I am having with students, friends & clients. The toolkit has dramatically transformed and it feels like in finance, for the first time, AI is real.

Canada stands in solidarity with the Lebanese people and Lebanese territorial integrity. I spoke with President Aoun earlier and condemned Israel’s illegal invasion and Hezbollah’s continued attacks on Israel. I expressed my strong support for Lebanon’s efforts to disarm Hezbollah and underscored the importance of maintaining a meaningful ceasefire and creating conditions for displaced civilians to return home safely.

It is very difficult for rats in a sewer pipe to know what’s going on in the outside world. Some color for the Iranian Leadership as they literally sit in the dark: 1. The United States has complete control of the Strait of Hormuz. 2. There is a hard currency, i.e. U.S. dollar, shortage. 3. Food and gasoline rationing are in place. 4. The entire international community has turned against you. 5. The BLOCKADE will continue, until there is pre-February 27 Freedom of Navigation.

Last night, Israeli forces intercepted and boarded a humanitarian aid flotilla bound for Gaza in international waters off the coast of Greece — unlawfully detaining more than 175 people, including several New Yorkers. My team has been in direct contact with State and Federal partners as we work to confirm the whereabouts and conditions of these New Yorkers. This is a brazen violation of international law. Those detained must be released.

CNBC: Despite nearly 3 years of continuous conflict, Israel is on track to outgrow every G7 economy this year. Unemployment sits at 3.2%, inflation remains below 2%, the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange has climbed roughly 20% since January, and the shekel has strengthened about 7% against the dollar. The momentum is being fueled by a dominant tech sector, surging foreign investment in cybersecurity, expanding defense exports, and a highly skilled workforce, pushing Israel’s performance ahead of the U.S., European Union, and United Kingdom.

What a Disaster

Even Mamdani realizes he stepped on a rake. Totally changed his tune.

The lowest volume of condo sales in 35 years! In 12 months there will be 40% less completions for condos. The supply cliff is finally dropping off. Incredible visual from Urbanation today. In 2029 the supply for condos will effectively be zero.