Joel Mazur

@PerrySolem At first blush, but then you see the size and the fact that it's non recourse and it makes sense. If Open AI loses runway, this is the stuff that's first to go. And no user to backfill the space.

pathetic. i could get cheaper debt to build unanchored retail in exurban Florida

@robbiehendricks All true, but I think some of these old school syndicators can't come to terms w how efficient the market has become. I'm not sure the going in 10% cash on cash country club deal is coming back anytime soon.

Had a meeting this week with a legend in multifamily. 10,000+ doors 96% occupancy Ridiculously low LTVs Sub-4% debt on 7-10 year loans. Iron clad. The calm in this man's energy, my heavens. Just completely settled, confident. Here are 10 nuggets from the meeting: 1) First, you've never heard of this man. He's not on social media. Doesn't wear a watch. Isn't a guru. Just a guy that's been buying property forever and operates it. If you saw him walking down the street, you'd think he was a cool suburban dad. 2) Portfolio is at 96% in a soft market. How? They keep rents low. As @resetbasis always says, rent is the ultimate competitive advantage. As such, they get 70% renewals and sub-1% delinquency. 3) They selectively sell older assets that will need substantial capex and 1031. Since few good A- or B class deals are trading, they are simply 1031'ing into new development they are doing themselves. He said he still cannot believe the prices people are paying for older product. Doesn't even underwrite the deals that come in from several local brokers. 4) Re: New construction, they are getting the units built for ridiculously low costs ($160k/door all-in). How? They're not trying to build resort-style product with granite countertops and yoga studios. It's "approachable A class", which for all intents and purposes is B class. Again, rents below market. They'll lease up in no time. Set it and forget it. 5) Said much of his career has been sitting on his hands doing nothing. Deals need to hit 10% cash on cash at stabilization and grow from there or they don't move (He said: Why would you invest in multifamily for 6% cash flow when you can buy the S&P?). They plan to hold indefinitely and return capital as the market allows. 6) Sees no real opportunities in primary and secondary markets. Tertiary, though, he is seeing a small window opening. Not nearly as much supply (and in some regions, zero new supply), still can have favorable demand drivers/employers. 7) We asked what he'd do in our shoes at 2000 units if we want to build a business that stands the test of time like his. He basically said: keep doing what you're doing, never betray conservative criteria, never get cute with debt, treat residents excellently, and stay out of the press. 8) Real Talk: He politely scolded us for making no money on property management (we don't). He said with our track record we deserve to get paid for working long days managing the assets ourselves with excellence, particularly if we are exceeding pro forma. 9) He resonated with our deal structure (straight split w/no AM fee), and mentioned that is how they have structured their deals for 30+ years. They only partner with a very small list of high net worth LPs that have grown with them since humble beginnings. Obviously their track record is immaculate. 10) Decorum: He printed out my email exchanges with carefully thought out answers to my questions handwritten in the margins. He took notes when I was speaking the entire time. Not a whiff of ego. Genuinely was trying to get to know us, share his experience, and connect. Offered to be a sounding board for us going forward. Extremely generous. It's humbling to talk with someone who has seen and navigated it all. Operated through the GFC. Kept clean, stayed discipined, didn't rush. Flew under the radar. Built something that will live forever.

@evanrosenfeld Understood. I think the industrial game is to flip pretty much as soon as you realize reasonable value. Except if it's also a covered land play. Anything interesting happening in Florida? Have to imagine there's plenty of opportunity there.

@jdmiser I wanted to experience a leasing win and to enjoy the cash flow. It was stressful sitting vacant for that long, but your'e right, it ended up being a huge win. I'm grateful that I exited on a high note

I wasted a year chasing a $300M tenant that said yes to everything. We never signed. CRE myth: High credit = low risk. Reality: High credit = slow decisions.

@davis_greene @LeylaKuni @EllliotttB Yes. You can get that investing in REITs. The crime is the selective quasi alternative facts. It's empirical evidence. Private equity of course can create alpha but not in the aggregate.

@jdmiser @LeylaKuni @EllliotttB Core CRE should do 6-8% long term with maybe half of that coming from income. That will always underperform equities long term. But it can be a powerful stabilizing force in a portfolio and a valuable complement to liquid credit.

Blackstone: "Let's do some cringey holiday videos to appeal to retail investors" KKR: "hold my beer"

@twallyweb I'm always amazed how cheap rents are there. Long live the wild west.

SLC Multifamily is so confusing right now. 7,700 units getting leased up 4,500 getting delivered this year 3,000 currently under construction Another 12,900 in planning (!!!!!!) How do we possibly grow out of this?

@davis_greene @LeylaKuni x.com/i/status/20350… @EllliotttB

@jdmiser @LeylaKuni Come on. It’s cheesy AF, but what they’re saying is perfectly reasonable. I’m not defending the format of this but everyone gets upset that HNW investors are sold prophet don’t under and then the same folks get upset when firms try to explain them to people. They tried…

@davis_greene @LeylaKuni Dude. Are we watching the same video? This might as well have been a video made by Rise48.

@LeylaKuni It’s not great but why make fun of them for trying to help people understand things in plain English instead of all the jargon? Sure, it feels cringe but we need more stuff like this imo. Make things relatable. Not body should buy something they don’t understand.

@johndoe16637903 @albertedwards99 @paulkrugman @SoberLook A good idiom for every long term investor who just wants to bury their head in the sand: Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

@albertedwards99 @paulkrugman @SoberLook Does it ever get tiresome being perpetually negative? I imagine it must be a very dreary existence.

.@paulkrugman best work imo was identifying the mid-1990s asian economic miracle as a a bubble, mainly because Total Factor Productivity was so poor - the miracle was that investors believed the hype and gave them tons of capital to invest. Does the same apply now? H/T @SoberLook

@moseskagan @harrisonfinberg I can confidently say that these bad dudes don't abide by the Golden Rule.

@harrisonfinberg It's amazing to watch, but I think the precedent they (and now, we) are setting may come back to haunt all of us, in the age of designer poisons / biotech weapons

It’s pretty wild. Israel fights wars like the gambino family

@TuckerCarlson Have fun in prison.

When you discover the CIA has been reading your texts in order to frame you for a crime.

@emlott7 Thanks, Emily. Nothing a little Phish Sphere can't comfort the soul.

@jdmiser They will never deter us. They try and try but we will always keep going because that’s who we are. Sending so much love to you and your family.

Very proud of my wife's article in Rolling Stone and of my daughter's bravery during yesterday's antisemitic attack at Temple Israel - the same synagogue I grew up attending and where I had my Bar Mitzvah. Metro Detroit is an incredible place to raise a Jewish family, and this act will not deter us.

@quebecween What a great tune this is.

i will never forget beavis and butthead reacting to ween for the first time

@moseskagan Please keep hammering this home. It has to eventually resonate, right? @GoodGuyGuaranty

Going to lose my mind. Every developer of rental housing is either a landlord in waiting or hoping to sell to one. You can't be in favor of private rental development, while also being in favor of eviction moratoriums, rent freezes, etc.... the capital just won't finance development at the scale necessary.

@twallyweb @PerrySolem What's it zoned for? Sounds like highest and best use is for something else.

@PerrySolem $871,000!!!!

I wrote an offer at $20 per foot on some industrial land this week and lost

Tax reassessment aside, the ongoing capex is 10x the standard $50 per lot the appraiser uses. I haven't done any multifamily but if $500 per site per year is MHC, I can only imagine what the real capex is for an old apt building This is why I'm a total convert into the fix and flip model. Holding real estate long term is a suckers game. Sorry, grandpa. @EllliotttB

@jdmiser @BarryRoland19 Whatever Joel that 20% OpEx % is real 😎

Buddy called me the other day, asking what I thought about his 8% cap MHP deal in Texas, for which there are zero comps. Not an asset or geography I’m super well-versed in, so my only advice came in the form of a question: “Assume nobody will buy this from you for a long, long time. Will you be ok owning and managing this building ~forever?”

@BarryRoland19 Without a doubt.

@jdmiser is an 8% cap MHP deal 25mi east of Plano even something that would attract a ton of capital?

I used to think it was ridiculous as well but some investors rely on that distribution (perhaps psychologically) and they would rather make a slightly lower overall IRR in exchange for having received a minimum dividend yield. It's kind of silly to me considering my deals are setup to have any unpaid pref accrue and compound anyway but I don't write the rules on investor logic. @PerrySolem

Didn’t check this, but I don’t really understand distribution reserves. Why would I want you to distribute my money back to me?

🤔🤔🤔