Simple S.

@DiveBomb321 The fella's got a portrait with Putin hanging in the WH now. Not even bothering to hide it.

This is trump looking for help in rigging the elections

@BullBrezza @BoringBiz_ AI slop

The innovator sees the opportunity. The imitator sees the innovator. The idiot sees the imitator getting rich and jumps in right before the music stops. That's not just 2008. That's every bubble, every mania, every cycle since tulips. The neighbor's new car is the most expensive financial advice most people will ever take. Buffett left out the fourth I. The insolvent. The ones who borrowed to keep up, then lost everything when the imitators stopped imitating and started selling. The envy gap is the real driver of retail capitulation. Not leverage. Not margin calls. Watching someone else win while you sit on your hands. That's the feeling that breaks discipline. The market doesn't need you to be greedy. It just needs you to be jealous. The rest takes care of itself. The innovator builds. The imitator copies. The idiot pays. The cycle repeats.

Warren Buffett on what caused the 2008 Global Financial Crisis "You cannot stand to see your neighbor getting rich. You know you are smarter than he is. And he is doing these things and getting rich. Your spouse is unhappy with you because you aren't doing it. And pretty soon, you start doing it. And so you get the three Is: the innovators, the imitators, and the idiots."

@SupplySignalAI @AndurandPierre AI slop.

The $29 backwardation spread is telling the real story here. Physical Brent at $141 and futures at $112 means the market knows this Hormuz mess isn't resolving in weeks. You're right about the roll risk, but 2020 was demand destruction. This is a physical plumbing problem. The Oman bypass adds 3-5 days to every transit and it's already capacity constrained. Tankers aren't choosing to wait, they literally can't get through the strait normally. Shorts thinking they're calling a top are ignoring that the oil actually has to move from A to B. That $29 gap says supply chains stay broken for months, not days.

The oil market now reminds me of when prices were around $30 in March 2020. Plenty of people who never looked at oil were going long oil futures, not realising what could happen to the roll. A few weeks later prices traded negative, with a $50+ contango for WTI a day before expiry. They looked at oil futures like equity, not understanding the impact of futures roll. This time is similar, plenty of people shorting the oil market thinking the Strait of Hormuz will eventually reopen and things will go back to normal. Many are trying to call the top. Without realising they might have to roll their shorts at $30, $50, $70+ backwardation?

@Biggdahtxai @calvinfroedge Trump's blown six bankruptcies. Probably makes your account blowing look like small fry.

@calvinfroedge As someone who’s blown a couple accounts I understand exactly 😂

I feel like the Maduro capture success coming so early was sort of like the trader who hits it big on his first bet and starts thinking he's invincible What follows is hubris being slowly overcome by a margin call Iran is our margin call

@calvinfroedge Six times bankrupt. The margin call was bound to come sooner or later.

@pissgenerat0r @Microinteracti1 @A_Revelator Russia controls less Ukranian land in 2026 than in 2022. Ukraine is losing?

@Microinteracti1 @A_Revelator Schrodinger's European. The US is simultaneously incompetent but also Ukraine is losing because the US won't help more. Pick a side you fucking worms

A French general just looked at Trump’s plan to build a runway inside Iran to fly out uranium under active bombing. His response: “American officials should stop snorting cocaine between meetings.” This is the same man who called joining Trump’s war “buying cheap tickets for the Titanic after it hit the iceberg.” The French are not holding back. Gandalv / @Microinteracti1

@darjv4barry @CyclesFan @garysavage1 45% is a "pullback and correction"? What are you smoking over there?

@CyclesFan @garysavage1 ? Yes, that Jan 26 post from Gary did age well He stated a pullback and correction might happen That's exactly what happened 😭😭😂

$Silver monthly - The next 3.5 years will be very frustrating for silver bugs. They will keep waiting in vain for $250-$500. Instead they're going to wake up in November 2029, the next 7 year cycle low, to their favorite metal trading at $30, silver's last 7 year cycle high.

@PetePiranio @JohannaNyman5 'Arrogant'? 'Ignorant'? I'm afraid these are simply facts. Do you think the F-35 & B-21 programs were initiated by Fox News hosts? The Constitution & Rule of Law written by lewd multi-bankrupts? Anti-achievement. Anti-education. Anti-American. This is what you represent.

You just double down on arrogant and ignorant. This is the problem with most who identify as democrats these days. You equate college degrees and titles with competence & wisdom. The fact you don’t understand what I’m saying just proves my point. No wonder there are so many unimpressive Dem politicians who grift of being career politicians and never did anything in private life. I will grant you there are some old as Rhinos who have done the same, but we are clearing them out one by one.

“If we consider that President Donald Trump is not a very patient person, then for some reason his patience with the Russians does not seem to run out.” – Kaja Kallas, EU's chief diplomat

@PetePiranio @JohannaNyman5 An arrogant statement? Do you dispute the facts, that 67% of Trump voters have no college education? These are not America's best. If you are educated, then you have no excuse for supporting a multi-time bankrupt, philandering, misogynistic felon. Unless its on brand for you.

@simplesimon1992 @JohannaNyman5 You keep telling yourself that so you can feel better about yourself. Such an arrogant statement proves college degrees is not equal to wisdom. I know this to be true. I have two degrees and built multiple multi-million dollar companies from knowledge gained after college.

@DiveBomb321 Last I saw she was preaching how Fauci and the Ukrainians worked together to create covid in a Kiev bio lab. Given she was on CIA no-fly list, took secret meetings w/ Russians in the Vatican & is in Trump's motley crew, make your own conclusions as to her allegiances.

I'm not really sure if she said this because she is bought by Iran and Russia or it's true. Its hard to figure out these days. 😂

@PetePiranio @JohannaNyman5 67% of Trump voters have no college education. Trump represents the absolute bottom of the barrel of American society; certainly not the brains and those who developed its great socio-political and military powerhouse. The trailer park has taken over the asylum.

@JohannaNyman5 All the more reason for the U.S. to exit NATO, and you handle it yourself since she obviously thinks they can do better. It's on your back porch, it's "not our war" now.

@kevindandy1 @cab8901 @grateful_web @rshereme How about Palm Beach Post? UK Guardian? theguardian.com/world/2008/jul… Seattle Times? seattletimes.com/nation-world/w… Given you have a 2012 year old acc, that means you're not a Russian bot, which makes your support of this Benedict Arnold even more revolting. eu.palmbeachpost.com/story/business…

@cab8901 @grateful_web @rshereme The New Yorker take your garbage some place else

July 1987, Moscow, USSR — Trump, 41 years old, flies to Moscow at the invitation of Soviet Ambassador to the U.S., Yuri Dubinin. Upon returning from Moscow, the bankrupt Trump suddenly receives loans from 16 banks and, without negotiation. 1/n

@Darkdeedfiles @RonFilipkowski AI slop. Are you so utterly intellectually pitiful that you can't write your own Twitter comments?

Orban runs a secure border, low crime, low debt compared to Western Europe, and tells Brussels to mind its business on sovereignty. That's not a bug, that's exactly the model America first conservatives think works. The idea that supporting Orban means supporting Putin is the same lazy conflation the media uses to smear anyone who doesn't want open borders and globalist trade deals. Hungary has been a NATO member the entire time and Orban has repeatedly said he wants the war in Ukraine to end through negotiation, which is also Trump's position. Vance going to Budapest isn't mysterious. It's America engaging with allies who share its governing philosophy. The same people clutching pearls about this said nothing when Obama spent his presidency campaigning for left wing candidates across Europe.

I understand that Viktor Orban clinging to power in Hungary is so important to Putin that he is doing everything possible to tamper in Hungary’s election, but why is it so important to Trump and Vance?

@SPYderMomTrades @ALLtheHardways1 You weren't trading from a theme park at Universal Studios, from what I gathered. Although trading short term options contracts with sufficient leverage to go way up or way down in the space of being in a doctor's appointment is almost as questionable, but not quite.

@simplesimon1992 @ALLtheHardways1 Not addiction, just accountability. I share the wins and the losses so people can actually learn. That’s called transparency

I didn’t get beat by the market today. I broke my own rules. Traded away from my computer No technicals Stacked positions Held losers way too long And the biggest one… my edge is scalping and I wasn’t scalping today. I don’t know what the fuck I was thinking. Gave back my entire week and then some. One of my biggest losses to date. This one hurts because it was 100% avoidable. Resetting. Back to discipline. That’s the only edge that matters.

@ALLtheHardways1 @SPYderMomTrades Addict behaviour. Tone it down.

@SPYderMomTrades Me too traded on the plane and at Universal Studios. 🤦‍♂️

@traderhc I liked you right up until you used AI to write your response. That is v. poor. As for stagflation, OECD upgraded US GDP growth last week by 0.3%. There will be huge demand for US energy, and we are about to start Natural Gas season with a chunk of Qatari production offline, too

The difference this time is they might actually have the receipts. ISM Prices Paid at 78.3 with oil at $111 and NFP printing -92k . that's not just people crying wolf anymore. Core PCE already at 3.06% with the Fed pinned at 3.50-3.75% and zero cuts priced through year-end. The broken clock crowd has been early for years, but the setup is finally here: supply-side inflation plus weakening labor. That's the textbook definition, not just a Twitter buzzword. What I'm watching is whether this oil shock feeds through to services inflation or stays contained in energy. If shelter keeps cooling but energy rips, the Fed gets the worst possible hand . can't cut into a labor market that's softening because input costs won't let them. $XLY at $108 sitting 2.8% off its 52-week low tells you the consumer is already voting with their wallet.

Oil rips 11.5% in a single session. $111 crude. Biggest move in years. Energy stocks couldn't even hold their gains. $XLY closed at $108.15, barely 2.8% above its 52-week low. That's the market telling you $111 oil isn't a bull signal. It's a consumer tax. When crude spikes on supply disruption instead of demand growth, the second-order effect is spending destruction. History says oil above $110 triggers consumer rollover within 60-90 days. The Fed can't cut into an oil shock. Can't hike into a slowing economy. Textbook stagflation box. I think $XLY breaks below 108.15 in the next two weeks. The sector rotation is already screaming it. What's your read on oil here, demand killer or something else? Okay then

@StrizziJ 20% off highs, having made a new low 10 days ago, and in a clear bear flag. Perhaps put the self-congratulation on ice.

I am waiting for the public apology of those who thought gold would continue to go down. I will forgive you if you comment below

@StanphylCap How has it been accomplished? Iran remain able to fire ballistic missiles. Much of the research labs are far, far underground, beyond even the reach of bunker bombs.

This point is so obvious, I don't understand how people miss it: The primary mission here was "remove Iran's ability to militarily threaten the rest of the world." (Regime change would've just been "a nice bonus.") With or without "a deal," that mission will be accomplished.

@Chris14813296 @AllenT808 @ZeeContrarian1 "further upside looks limited to me." followed by +11% in the less than 24 hour intervening period. Are you known to be a simple man, Chris?

@AllenT808 @ZeeContrarian1 Did oil make a new high?

I think we may have already seen the peak prices for oil. If there’s a ground operation, it could mark a final act and trigger a sell-the-news reaction. If there isn’t, that may also act as resolution, with risk premium fading. In both cases, further upside looks limited to me.