Brett Erickson

One of my gravest concerns as the war continues is that we have crossed the Rubicon as it relates to the replenishment of the Russian war chest due to the boon in revenues from oil exports as a result of the "unsanctioning" of Russian oil. Russia is raking in well beyond $5B/month from increased oil revenues, and with a low likelihood of these Pakistan peace talks resulting in any meaningful ceasefire, there is great risk that we will see General Licenses 133 and 134 perpetually extended over the course of the year due to a need to temper the global energy markets. As I said in The Washington Post on Friday: "This move directly contradicts Trump’s own statements that the United States is considering winding down this conflict,” “You don’t unsanction Iranian oil if you’re winding down. This is the action of an administration that has no exit ramp and knows it. The word for that is desperation.”

I am seeing an increase of reporting tied to Iran's utilization of cryptocurrencies to evade sanctions and launder illicit capital. While this is irrefutably true in recent years, there is CURRENTLY not sufficient data or reporting to indicate that this has been conducted at scale during the current conflict. Despite headline reporting that outflows increased by "700%" in the immediate aftermath of the Feb 28 strikes on Tehran, this equated to total outbound movement of a mere $3M. #Iran #Tehran #Crypto #Cryptocurrency #Sanctions #MoneyLaundering

It is worth noting that in addition to General License 14 yesterday, which authorized transactions pertaining to the Belarussian Bank of Development and Reconstruction Belinvestbank Joint Stock Company, there were also several removals from the Specially Designated Nationals List that were significant. These companies, notably Belaruskali, Belarusian Potash Company and Agrorozkvit, are potash and fertilizer exporters, which account for significant amounts of Belarusian GDP. It is no secret that Belarus acts as a de facto puppet state for the Kremlin, and these moves from Treasury and OFAC should be viewed in the broader context of emergency sanctions relief from Washington as it relates to how we have directly provided material benefit to our immediate adversaries as a result of poor planning and wargaming on the Iran Conflict. #Sanctions #Belarus #Russia #Iran #Fertilizer #oil ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions…

It has now been confirmed that Iranian hackers have breached the personal email of FBI Director Kash Patel and have released excerpts online. This is a major embarrassment to the United States, who recently released their Cyber Strategy for America earlier this month, meant to directly address these types of threats. #Cyber #Hacking #Iran #KashPatel #UnitedStates #Oil

Recent reporting from Reuters today indicates that India has been privately pushing for additional Russian sanctions relief from Washington as it pertains to LNG imports. Exclusive reporting from @JarrettRenshaw, @krishnadasassam, and @Nidhi712 indicates that Delhi has approached Washington to receive additional sanctions easing for Russian LNG imports, which reporting indicates could soon drive even more windfall to the Kremlin as a result of rising energy markets forcing Trump and Bessent to ease sanctions on our adversaries. #Russia #India #Oil #LNG #Trump #Iran reuters.com/business/energ…

@RepDonBacon @nytimes Couldn’t agree more on this

.@nytimes: “Easing sanctions on Russia at this critical juncture, instead of increasing pressure, risks fueling Russia’s aggression and undermining progress we have made to reduce Russia’s global energy leverage,” Representatives Don Bacon, Republican of Nebraska, and Gregory W. Meeks of New York, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said in a letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Secretary of State Marco Rubio demanding answers on the administration’s decision to ease sanctions on Russian oil. nytimes.com/2026/03/25/us/…

@JavierBlas Cmon man, you know this is just TACO

BREAKING: Trump says that he's extending the deadline before any attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure (on his own words, "Energy plant destruction") by 10 days until April 6. Trump says talks with Iran are "going very well" Real diplomacy? More oil jawboning?

Not that I'm cheering for strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure (it was a stupid threat to begin with), but Trump looks like an absolute fool after Iran has twice now called his bluff. As for Kharg... buckle up.

As I have discussed previously, it is my belief that Trump will double down on Iran due to the damage withdrawal would cause to his legacy at this point. Per Pete Hegseth today: “We are here to win,” Hegseth said. Hegseth called the war the “stuff for the history books” and added “this is stuff for legacy.”

There needs to be a discussion about whether or not Secretary Bessent and President Trump truly understand the economic tools they have employed in response to rising global energy markets.

One of the only tools the Trump Administration has still at their disposal is the complete and total removal of Russian sanctions... and I worry they'll do it.

It's very concerning to me whether or not the recent Ukrainian attacks on Russia oil infrastructure in Ust-Luga, Primorsk, and Novorossiysk dramatically impacts Trump's calculus to move on Kharg. I don't see a scenario where moving on Kharg and the resultant Iranian retaliation has any effect besides cataclysmic economic devastation.

FT Exclusive: Moscow has close ties with Tehran and has provided its ally with crucial support including satellite imagery, targeting data and intelligence support, people familiar with the matter said. ft.trib.al/IsseW1G

The economic tools the White House and Treasury have at their disposal are increasingly few. I am concerned that Trump may have been planning future easing of Russian oil sanctions, which have, quite literally, gone up in flames over the last 24 hours.

@shashj 100%. To be clear, the ONLY goal of this campaign was regime change.

Slightly surreal, because right now the US government (including CENTCOM) maintains the fiction that regime change is not a goal of this war, and yet the foreign minister and speaker of parliament were on what the WSJ describes as a joint kill list. If the aim is not regime change, then where is the necessity & thus lawfulness of killing these officials? Surely even the most optimistic military lawyer would struggle to claim that Aragchi is in the chain of command. "The U.S. and Israel have temporarily removed two senior Iranian officials from their list of officials to eliminate as they explore possible peace talks, U.S. officials said. Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi" wsj.com/livecoverage/i…

@John_Hudson Just in time for an invasion of Kharg and shutdown of the Bab al-Mandeb...

At least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity halted, Reuters calculations show

@lrozen @gbrew24 Yes, this has been confirmed, but the consistency is unknown

Is it your understanding that Iran levies some sort of fee for permitting these passages? @gbrew24

One of the things that make this highly unlikely, at least from a sanctions standpoint, it the need to release an "edit" to General License 134 because it didn't have very obvious guardrails in place regarding who can benefit from these oil exports. Despite what Bessent says, it seems this was not "well thought out in advance"

@BrettErick97489 Agreed great assessment. Is there a possibility of that this was part of trumps plan?….if he actually has one?

One of my gravest concerns as the war continues is that we have crossed the Rubicon as it relates to the replenishment of the Russian war chest due to the boon in revenues from oil exports as a result of the "unsanctioning" of Russian oil. Russia is raking in well beyond $5B/month from increased oil revenues, and with a low likelihood of these Pakistan peace talks resulting in any meaningful ceasefire, there is great risk that we will see General Licenses 133 and 134 perpetually extended over the course of the year due to a need to temper the global energy markets. As I said in The Washington Post on Friday: "This move directly contradicts Trump’s own statements that the United States is considering winding down this conflict,” “You don’t unsanction Iranian oil if you’re winding down. This is the action of an administration that has no exit ramp and knows it. The word for that is desperation.”

Multiple Republicans have now made comments that seem to suggest that an operation to seize Kharg may be underway this week. If this is the case, it seems to suggest Trump may be doubling down on this war. The only rationale is that he is accepting a global recession in exchange for removing the Iranian regime. It's a bold play Cotton.

I'm really not sure how Trump will be able to escape this quagmire without it being viewed as a clear loss. Not just by the majority, but also by his most ardent supporters. I don't think anyone is buying that this was about anything besides a single goal of regime change.

Karoline… the President of Iran is still Pezeshkian, and the Supreme Leader’s last name is still Khamenei… NO, there has NOT been a regime change