Dr. Raj Sherman@RajSherman
Paul @PfParks , your innocence is refreshing...BUT
Here’s the uncomfortable truth most Alberta Conservatives don’t want to hear:
Rural values votes keep winning elections, even when it hurts healthcare, education, and city funding.
Many won’t like this. But it needs to be said.
The challenge in Alberta politics is that the @Alberta_UCP party often starts with a strong base in rural Alberta (30–1), and that shapes how elections are won.
So, elections often come down to winning half of the seats in Calgary (for the Conservative Party), and the race is effectively decided, even before it begins.
It’s similar federally, when a party secures Ontario & Quebec, the election is often decided before it even gets to Alberta.
Common rural campaign triggers include:
1. Trudeau / Liberal / Ottawa
2. Abortion
3. Guns
4. LGBTQ+ issues
5. Immigration
6. Taxes
7. And now, COVID-19 policies, Freedom & independence
The reality is many rural Albertans vote based on values and identity, even when it comes at the expense of their own self-interests in healthcare, education, infrastructure, and municipal funding.
That’s uncomfortable. But it’s real. And until we admit it, nothing changes.
In today’s polarized climate, it has become very difficult for the Alberta Conservative movement to sustain moderate leadership in the mold of:
1. Premier Peter Lougheed
2. Premier Ed Stelmach
Even Premier @jkenney would be viewed as relatively moderate in today’s environment, as would Premier Ralph Klein, who at one time was seriously considered for a run at the leadership of the Alberta Liberal Party (“Ralph ’88”).
Premier @ABDanielleSmith , will most likely win the next election, and likely with a bigger majority, if it were held today, tomorrow, or next fall.
Not because she is doing a great job.
We have:
1. Alleged corruption and expensive gift scandals
2. Healthcare is being increasingly privatized and has been picked apart like never before
3. Albertans are dying in waiting rooms
4. Our sick and seniors are being nickel-and-dimed
5. Our children's classrooms are bursting at the seams
6. Our province is spending more, and we are going further into debt
7. At a time when oil revenues are strong
That is her record... and it’s arguably worse than Premier Alison Redford’s, and among the worst of any Premier of our time.
And yet, she’s still winning. Why?
Because the opposition @albertaNDP still hasn’t figured out how to win against a united Conservative party.
That’s the part people don’t want to hear, especially NDP party members and MLA's.
In order for a change in government:
1. The NDP desperately needs a leader and policies that can earn the trust of Albertans in swing seats, in moderate rural ridings and smaller cities outside of #yeg and #yyc .
No disrespect, but I don’t believe that Naheed @nenshi will be able to accomplish that (Premier @RachelNotley was a bigger threat, and even she lost to Kenney and Smith).
2. The NDP needs a moderate, outside, and provincially experienced leader, someone who is not only good at criticizing and opposing, but capable of leading on day one, and providing solutions that earn the trust of people outside of Edmonton and parts of Calgary (@LukaszukAB is one name that comes to mind).
3. The @ABLiberal Party and @albertatory party should sit the next election out as they are not ready for prime time. All they are going to do is help the UCP in swing ridings, in both major and smaller cities.
The reality is we live in a two-party system in Alberta, and that is a major problem, as each side’s base has too much control of the Leader’s priorities.
In the “olden days” the Premier had to govern from “the middle”, now they govern from “the fringe”.
With both parties and we end up with half of the legislature’s time spent changing the policies of the previous government, even if they were working well and made sense.
At the end of the day, Albertans pay the price for all of this partisan back-and-forth from both sides, time and money are wasted and the average Albertan is caught in the middle, paying the price.
Because, if the NDP can’t win outside Edmonton and parts of Calgary, you don’t form government in Alberta.
Period.
Until then, kiss our education of our children, our healthcare system, funding for the cities, and the care of the sick and elderly… goodbye.
We’ve likely got at least 5 more years of this crap…higher costs, worse access, and politics getting in the way.
Not to mention: alleged corruption and crony capitalism.
If Naheed Nenshi were to resign very soon, he could overturn the applecart and create an opportunity and real change.
Because that what I did in January 2015...and the government changed, with a split on the right.
Someone, please tell me I’m wrong.
Comments?
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