EventLongShort

@origoinvest Same goes for KKR

@origoinvest Athene's capital requirements are going up, ROE is going down. The arbitrage that existed for Apollo and attractiveness of owning Athene is going to disappear.

While this may sound counterintuitive to many of you $APO stands to benefit the most from a dislocation in private credit and a widening of credit spreads $APO generated $3.4B in SRE (spread-related earnings) from Athene in FY 2025 vs. $2.5B in FRE for its AM unit Athene's annuities/products produce net inflows to the tune of $84B a year or ~28% of its net invested assets and the ability to earn a spread on those incremental assets is the NUMBER ONE driver of the $APO market cap - not retail demand for BDCs, not even LP demand for its core funds within its Asset Management umbrella You will say what about the impact on Athene's existing book? It is 99.7% unlevered (unlike BDCs, private credit fund structures) and sits predominantly in asset-backed (low LTV residential mortgage) and IG (government + corporate). And private IG DOES NOT mean Mickey Mouse loans to mid-scale SAAS companies - these are private placements with Intel, ABInBev, Sony, Microsoft. In fact Athene is subject to regulatory disclosures well in excess of any Bank/BDC/PC fund and every quarter they file a 5,000 page statutory report detailing every single position and transaction. The autistics among you can check it out here: d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_fd9b9a684a3b0…

@KeithSmithNBA And then there is this. They are unlikely to use their MLE next season either. It's about the money. If it was actually about positioning the team to make additional moves for players, sure. But it's not. It's tax avoidance. Fans should cheer why?

@KeithSmithNBA They had access to the taxpayer MLE, which is about $6mm. They now will have access non-taxpayer MLE but it caps at first apron so they have about $9mm they can spend of the $15mm+ limit of the exception. $3mm more. Wow! The big savings went into the owners pocket.

Too many of you have been poisoned into believing the only reason to get under the tax is ownership being cheap. Sometimes that’s it, but Boston didn’t give up a single rotation player to start the process of resetting the tax repeated clock. Stop believing sports radio.

@KeithSmithNBA All to put a big fat check from the luxury tax paying teams into the owner's pocket! Celtics get about $3mm extra to spend using the mid level exemptions which they probably won't spend anyway because it would swing the total bill for owners in the neighborhood of $40mm.

Celtics should be able to time things out enough to stay under the luxury tax. It'll be tight, but they should be able to make it work.

@gaulicsmith @AGHamilton29 DHS was granted sole authority. This gets overturned potentially unanimously at SC.

@AGHamilton29 TPS was specially designed to be insulated from electoral politics. Not my quote, read the lawsuit lmao. (And yes the implication is that elections don’t matter)

Putting aside the politics, the idea that an admin cannot end temporary protected status is obviously nonsense. This is pure judicial activism. The previous extension ends tomorrow. There is no legal requirement for the admin to continue extending temporary protections.

@knickzfeed No chance this happens unless it's part of a bigger trade. Portland would have to throw in multiple firsts to swap Jrue for Mikal, which doesn't make sense for Knicks unless those pics go to something bigger.

Mikal Bridges becomes trade eligible on Sunday. (tomorrow)

@BarryOnHere Who you got Barry?

We're in for 2 weeks of hearing how Drake Dilfer is elite because his defense has been historically dominant for 3 games. Barf.

@StackMonster24 @Ian_OConnor Adebo and Holland? The two worst signings of 2025 off-season in league.

@Ian_OConnor If Schoen pulls this off given the options Harbaugh has, the detractors will need to hush 🤫, but will likely not because that’s how negative people & trolls roll. Shoen’s learned some hard lessons, but the last 2 drafts & Burns, Elumenor, etc. demonstrate the lessons learned.

I'm told Giants GM Joe Schoen has had direct contact with John Harbaugh and that those talks have been positive. Long way to go, but Schoen has been a relentless, John Calipari-level recruiter on this one, which likely speaks to his willingness to work with JH on the roster.

@sspencer_smb @jbarro @grok is the city arguing debt costs from a mortgage are the reason it isn't feasible? In the city's briefing, it reads it's not feasibly excluding debt costs? Isn't the stalking horse bid debt free as payment is to the current mortgage lenders? cases.stretto.com/public/x447/13…

Gemini begs to differ... That is a very sophisticated legal question. While the logic you are using tracks closely with arguments often made by landlord advocacy groups (like the Community Housing Improvement Program) in actual "Takings Clause" lawsuits, the City is definitely not admitting to a taking in this document. Here is the nuance of why the City’s argument in this filing is distinct from a constitutional admission: 1. The Argument is about "Feasibility," not "Value" In a "Takings" case, a landlord must prove that regulations have deprived them of all economically beneficial use of the property or interfered with reasonable investment-backed expectations. In this bankruptcy filing, the City is arguing under Section 1129 of the Bankruptcy Code regarding "feasibility"1. The City's Claim: They argue that this specific business plan (buying these buildings at this price with this amount of debt) doesn't work because the rent roll is too low to cover the costs2. The Implication: The City is not saying the buildings have no value (which would be a "taking"). They are saying the buildings cannot support the proposed sale price and the repair costs simultaneously3. The Difference: If a building generates $100k in rent but costs $200k to operate because of debt service and repairs, the City argues the sale is "not feasible." A landlord might argue that is a "taking." However, the City would counter that the building might be viable if bought for a much lower price (or $0), or by a non-profit with subsidies. Therefore, the value isn't "taken" by the law; the market value is just lower than the debt the current owner wants to pay off. 2. The City Blames the Bidder, Not the Law The City explicitly frames the problem as a failure of the bidder (Summit) to prove they have enough extra capital to make the math work. The City notes that "The Debtors have provided no information to show that Summit will have the resources to pay these amounts"4. The objection is not that maintenance is impossible; it is that maintenance is impossible without significant outside capital, which Summit hasn't shown they have5. The City implies that a "feasible" buyer would need deeper pockets or a different financial structure to handle the "distressed conditions" 6and the "arrears and violations"7. 3. The "Taking" requires a loss of specific rights To win a Takings claim, landlords usually have to prove the state has forced them to keep tenants at a loss indefinitely. The City’s filing actually emphasizes that the new owner usually has a duty to cure defaults 8 and compensate for losses. The City is essentially saying: "The law requires you to fix the building. The rent doesn't pay for the fix. Therefore, you (the buyer) must bring your own money to fix it." By demanding the buyer assume these liabilities9, the City is enforcing the regulation, not admitting the regulation is flawed. Summary You have identified the exact economic tension that landlords sue over. However, in this specific document, the City avoids the "Takings" trap by framing it as a bad business deal: "The proposed sale would not lead to a supportable business... because the current rents are very low." 10 The City interprets this to mean the deal should be stopped, whereas a landlord would interpret this to mean the rent laws should be struck down. The City is using the math to block a specific "slumlord" outcome, not to invalidate the rent laws.

A lot of people in Mamdani’s coalition want to move these buildings into government or non-profit hands, but that’s just a means for further subsidy, including by taking them off the property tax rolls.

@FiveForForty Need voice overs

@JasonSmithXLII Lifelong Giants fan here. If Joe is here next year, this will be my last year of season ticket ownership after decades. We have had some terrible GMs but he takes the cake.

@SavageSports_ @grok based on movement of the knee buckling inward, what type of injury do you think occurred?

Better angle of the Will Campbell injury. Hoping the reports of only MCL damage are accurate. This angle looks more promising.

@NickTimiraos But Nick, the Fed (and you!) kept warning that the Trump admin tariffs would cause inflation. If the "data dependent" Fed came to this conclusion despite data showing otherwise, and then we saw inflation decline, how do Powell and the Fed maintain credibility?

SF Fed study examines 150 years of U.S. tariffs and find that they lead to lower inflation and weaker aggregate demand (which raises unemployment) frbsf.org/wp-content/upl…

@BrilliantHoops @kcjones1498 @SbondyNBA @KnicksMuse @TheFrankIsola @cbefred @thekapman @JCowleyHoops @BGeltzNBA @CPTheFanchise @IanBegley @alanhahn I don't have a problem with thibs but arguing what he literally has never been able to do is silly. He's never developed a bench in his career and burns out starters. He's been fired from everywhere because of it. He's good at getting best out of starters but it's a long season

@EventLongShort @kcjones1498 @SbondyNBA @KnicksMuse @TheFrankIsola @cbefred @thekapman @JCowleyHoops @BGeltzNBA @CPTheFanchise @IanBegley @alanhahn Tim Legler and Bob Myers, ever heard of them? They said it was the weakest most untalented bench in the playoffs. Both. He has developed players. You know nothing. Go suck an egg. Now we have the failure from Sacramento who was criticized for not developing young players😹😹😹

Not a surprise given how the team's offseason has unfolded, but Cam Payne will not be returning to the Knicks next season, a league source says. Payne averaged 6.9 points in 72 games last season. Knicks don't win Game 1 against the Pistons without him.

@BrilliantHoops @kcjones1498 @SbondyNBA @KnicksMuse @TheFrankIsola @cbefred @thekapman @JCowleyHoops @BGeltzNBA @CPTheFanchise @IanBegley @alanhahn This is so foolish and arguing into an abyss. Thibs has never developed or played a bench in his entire career, and that's not even a remotely contentious point. That's literally his style.

@kcjones1498 @SbondyNBA @KnicksMuse @TheFrankIsola @cbefred @thekapman @JCowleyHoops @BGeltzNBA @CPTheFanchise @IanBegley @alanhahn For a contending team, the roster was exposed because the front office spent too much and didn’t address a quality bench. Many experts saw this, not just me. And dummies blamed a coach when multiple players on the bench had been cut from the worst teams in the league, like Suns

@dampedspring Update?

Let's go haters. Buying 50bp of puts

@DannyDayan5 Expensive

Wrong on Powell today. Policy mistake.

@AnnaEconomist Yikes. Completely wrong

I think Jay Powell was not being dovish today, and this is the sort of speeches that people will realize how hawkish it is with time to digest. And this kind of knee jerk reaction, only to be reversed later, had happened before.